TIFF and Venice are coming soon and it's time to line-up the first serious Academy Award nominations predictions. As I said in a previous post, all comes around which movies the studios/distributors are determined to promote and build an awards campaign around - and aspects like box-office performance and critical reception are key factors in the decision process, but they are not the only ones. Considering the cultural impact of the internet, social media and niche target audiences are also valid points when start predicting - Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores might indicate the general reception, but if a movie is truly loved, even for a smaller group of moviegoers, then it might score enough #1 votes in the Best Picture ballot. Basically, you must know the Academy members and you must sense which movie might target a certain group of Academy members better. That said, I believe this year can be one of the most diverse in terms of cinematic offer for voters.
Of course, there are some names that generate Oscar interest automatically, with Martin Scorsese being one of them: he brings Killers of Flower Moon this year, a movie that's also a passion project for the American Master and it was met with rave reviews at Cannes earlier this year. Considering its planned Fall film festival screenings, Apple is really relying on this one as its awards vehicle and I believe it might well end-up as the most nominated movie of the year. Christopher Nolan's affair with the AMPAS still doesn't reflect the quality of his work (greater work than the Academy gives him credit for), but he went traditional Oscar bait with Oppenheimer, a movie that's both conventional cinematic-wise as groundbreaking in many technical aspects - the critical praise and the impressive box-office numbers will only boost its chances. A24 really is becoming a major player in the awards circuit (considering its big win last year with EEAAO and The Whale), so I believe Past Lives will get campaigned and it will appeal to indie voters - considered by many as the best film of the year (so far), it also has a very decent box-office performance and the buzz is strong since its Sundance release. As for Dune: Part II, history says when the AMPAS embraces the first installment of a cinematic series/trilogy, they tend to nominate the following movies - and the first one not only was nominated for Best Picture but it also took home 6 Oscars! The trailer promises an even more epic movie than the first one, so... bigger and even better we hope! Finally, the "5th spot" or the last seat of the TOP 5... I believe it's going to be The Zone of Interest - Holocaust drama, critical acclaim since Cannes, Jonathan Glazer is an auteur still waiting for the Academy to notice his movies... and since A24 is also backing it and it is likely to be selected as an International Film submission... AMPAS members can't resist a good Holocaust drama and this one might be the cup of tea of the WWII lovers and the international / arthouse-loving members.
Another movie that has been on the rise is Greta Gerwig's Barbie! The billion dollar film dominates the box-office both domestically and worldwide and it emerging as some kind of a cultural phenomenon and a satire about the patriarchy. With a very good script, visual style, great acting performances and the support from both critics and audiences, I believe Barbie has enough appeal for the younger/fresher members of the Academy that will go for it as their #1 pick in the Best Picture nomination ballot. Next, I predict Bradley Cooper's Maestro to land here. The Academy sure loves Cooper (he is a 9 times Oscar nominee) and I expect Netflix to go heavy campaign-mode for this one - a biopic about a relevant Hollywood figure with a very interesting personal life - and Cooper has already proven to be a competent director and a charismatic leading man. Then there's a trio of movies that might benefit from the fact their respective distributor don't really have a traditional Oscar bait production in their slate this year yet (something that can change anytime during the Fall film festival circuit, where some award players might be acquired): Anatomy of a Fall is the Palme d'Or winner of last edition of Cannes Film Festival and it was picked by NEON, which has a very nice track record when it comes to "sell" the Cannes champion to the Academy (2019's Parasite won Best Picture and 2022's Triangle of Sadness was nominated for Best Picture) and it got rave reviews, so...; Wes Anderson's Asteroid City was not as widely acclaimed as some of his previous works (let's say Moonrise Kingdom and The Grand Budapest Hotel), but there's a lot of passion for this one from the arthouse cinema lovers (and voters from the technical branches) and I believe it could get enough #1 votes and land a Best Picture nod (but it's the kind of indie Summer movie that really needs its distributor to back a campaign) - plus, it had a strong box-office performance, which means it has an audience of its own; and the last spot goes to Ben Affleck's Air, an early release that managed to keep in the Oscar talk until now and Amazon has already arranged some promotional screenings in order to campaign for this one (and considering its great box-office numbers and how "feel good" Air is in such uncertain times, I believe it can be a "relief" movie and many people's favorite).
Next in line there's Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, an amazing coming-of-age film (that happens to be an animated feature), well-crafted and well liked by both audiences and critics - will it be able to rise above the "animated film" thing? It has been a while since the Academy had an animated film in the Best Picture lineup, but Spidey has also to overcome the fact it is also a superhero movie (genre bias). Then, there's Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, which looks beautiful and weird, it features the always reliable Emma Stone and it will be competing for the Golden Lion at Venice Film Festival, but... it's a Searchlight movie, which is owned by Disney - one of the biggest villains in the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes, two of the biggest branches of the Academy, which might just boycott the movie awards-wise. There's also David Fincher's The Killer, which shows great premise and early word is that it is quite good, but looks more a Girl With the Dragon Tattoo type of movie than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network or Mank and the Academy might not embrace it for Best Picture. The Boy and the Heron is Miyazaki's swan song and it will open TIFF - early reviews and reactions say it is fantastic but it will have to compete with Spidey for the rare "animated film spot" in the Best Picture shortlist. I don't really know what to expect from Saltburn, but Amazon is already playing cards promoting Air, so... The Color Purple movie musical looks great, but will it really deliver? Spielberg's non-musical adaptation is still fresh in people's minds and some musicals can be really messy if the directorial approach isn't refined enough... could be an acting showcases movie only. Next Goal Wins suffered from multiple delays and it seems there are some talking about delaying it again... if it was a sure Oscar player they wouldn't delay it, right? 20th Century Studios has a nice track with the Oscars and their bet seems to be The Bikeriders - but little is known except it has an amazing cast and an amazing director that never managed to rise from the indie circuit recogntion. Alexander Payne's The Holdovers seems sweet and funny, but it seems like a "just fine" Christmas movie... am I wrong? Maybe I am the only one who's not taking it as seriously, but I also think there are way too high expectations around this one. Rustin is another film from Netflix's slate... I don't know if it will have enough room to play beyond "a Colman Domingo vehicle for an Oscar nomination".
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