Academy Awards 2023 nominees predictions: Best Supporting Actress (1st ROUND)

The "supporting" categories are extremely co-related with the Best Picture race in the way "supporting players" tend to coattail with the movie's campaign for that category, but this year there are many buzzy acting turns that are buzzy on their own. Oscar trivia shows the most usual number of Best Supporting Actress nominees from a Best Picture contender is... 3! But sometimes they are only 2 (88th Oscars), sometimes they can even be 5 (89th Oscars)!
So, with the end of the strikes on sight, we should start seeing the actors and actresses doing some press and attending some events and it will give us a better perspective about the campaign that are set to start. Still, a big question mark still is The Color Purple - will it be good? The trailer seems to put on a big show and the Broadway musical was pretty successful, but will it be a good cinematic adaptation? I feel people still have a lot of love for Spielberg's adaptation starring Whoopi Goldberg and I sense The Color Purple will really need to be THAT GOOD.

She is said not only to be a scene-stealer, but also the heart of the movie she stars - Alexander Payne's The Holdovers - and considering the buzz around the film, I say Da'vine Joy Randolph to be the Best Supporting Actress frontrunner right now. With previous strong work in Dolomite Is My Name (2019) and some stage "prestige" thanks to her turn in Ghost: The Musical (2012, Broadway), I believe she's in a sweet spot in order to get nominated. 2nd place goes to Danielle Brooks, an amazing actresses that I feel only needs her big cinematic moment to show the world how great she is! She will take on the role of Sophie for The Color Purple - which is arguably the best part in the musical adaptation - taking on Oprah Winfrey's shoes in some way. It's not the first time she takes on this exact same part: she did it for the 2015 Broadway revival and she even got nominated for a Tony Award! With consistent stage work and a nice showing in Orange is the New Black TV series, I believe the movie only needs to be "good enough" for Brooks to land a nomination here. A very solid 3rd spot belongs to Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer. She makes a lot with so little (her character is quite underwritten in my opinion) and the movie is a huge Oscar contender. Still... she has a couple of very good scenes, but the movie is not written for her to shine that bright and she was snubed way too many times before - will it be a "it's your time" nod or "we just don't like you" and she will be snubed again? I believe her overdue factor will play in her favor. Then, I have Scarlett Johansson for Asteroid City - she's brilliant in her dual role, pure comedic gold and she's in perfect synchrony with her directors vision. I believe Focus will campaign for both The Holdovers (a frontrunner player in the above the line categories) and Asteroid City (a strong contender across the board, but not likely to win) and if Johansson enters the campaign trail, I consider her star power and her past Oscar snubs will play on her favor and earn her a third Oscar nomination. She's the one who delves deeper into her character and she delivers the most remarkable performance from the ensemble - but Wes Anderson has never generated an Oscar acting nomination for one of his actors... Can Johansson be the first? Last spot goes for an Oscar comeback: the great Julianne Moore for Todd Haynes' May December. Her performance was met with critical acclaim back in Cannes Film Festival and Netflix is clearly having it all set to campaign it this season: the film will also have a run for New York Film Festival, BFI London Film Festival and many others. Moore is one of the best working actresses working these days and the last time she got some Oscar love was for 2014's winning turn in Still Alice - I sense this is the right film and the right year for her to be back to the Academy Award nominees lineups (and Best Supporting Actress race feels extremely fluid).

As for Penélope Cruz, who steals the spotlight in Michael Mann's Ferrari (according to reviews), I feel some lack of enthusiasm about her movie, which might hurt her chances. Still, the film got some pretty solid reviews and Cruz's performance was considered the highlight of the film. Let's not forget the AMPAS loves the suffering wife role and it seems the actress excels in that same part and she even adds some dynamite spice. The Academy has always been kind to Cruz - 4 nominations, 1 win, which is a major achievement for an international actress. I can see her rising during the awards season if critics and industry awards go for Ferrari. Then, I have Taraji P. Henson for the role of Sugar Avery in The Color Purple musical... and while Henson is a charming screen presence with great acting chops, I feel she's quite underrated. The thing is: she got the weakest part of the trio of female lead performances (theorically), but she's better known in the industry than her co-stars and I can imagine her doing wonders with that role. Still, I have to wait and see... I sense The Color Purple really has to be outstanding in order to crack the above the lines categories. Sandra Hüller is one of the frontrunners in the Best Actress category, but she also will try her shot for Best Supporting Actress for The Zone of Interest - another raved performance of her, but in a historical Holocaust-set drama. The AMPAS loves WWII movies and Jonathan Glazer's latest sure is getting some gold during the awards season, but will Oscar voters go 2/2 for Hüller?     If so, she would be the first international actress to achieve so! The reviews are strong enough for her to crack the lineup, but she's commiting category fraud so she doesn't cancel herself in Best Actress. Air was considered one of the strongest early contenders for the Oscar season, but people aren't talking about this one that much lately. Has Amazon dropped it from its campaign strategy? Still, CODA was revived later in the Fall and it managed to end-up taking Best Picture home at the Oscars, so let's keep Air in the conversation, with Viola Davis as the most likely acting nominee from the ensemble - a strong, charisma-based performance as Michael Jordan's mom that ignites the screen. Davis proves to be a star in what could be a "nothing" role, but she elevates every line of hers and adds an inner strenght that make her performance quite impressive. Don't rule her out! The last spot goes to America Ferrera for Barbie, who has an amazing monologue scene that screams "Oscar clip!" and sets itself as one of the most moving scenes of the whole movie and a testament about what means to be a woman in a world ruled by man. But will Barbie be Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling's awards show only?