Awards season is ready to start and distributors are already lining their contenders. After the indie Winter & Spring and a lackluster Summer seasonl, it seems there aren't many contenders that had their releases outside of a film festival this year. Sure Thanksgiving and Christmas season always have a word to say concerning the Oscar potential of more commercial cinematic ventures, but I consider the biggest players have already screened in Cannes, Venice, Telluride and TIFF.
To understand the Oscar game, we have to have some points in mind:
#1 - it kinda plays like a presidential election in the way your party (AKA distributor) needs to champion the movie and land a FYC campaign;
#2 - Best Picture nominees are chosen through a preferential balloting system, which means the love towards a movie plays a big part in the game while not liking the movie does not (you can't "unvote" a movie or block the AMPAS members of picking it);
#3 - the first critics' awards are key to generate award chat around a title or performance or specific aspect of a film, but critics and Academy members are different and organizations like the guilds and BAFTA have a more similiar members composition to the ones who vote the Oscars;
#4 - A member of a branch of the AMPAS can only vote for the nominees shortlist of the category that mirrors his/her branch... which means, actors and actresses vote for the acting categories, writers vote for the screenplay categories, editors vote for editing and so one... but everyone votes for Best Picture.
BEST PICTURE
So... it's time to have a look at the biggest contenders for Best Picture. First, I have The Brutalist, which was received under massive critical acclaim during Venice Film Festival, TIFF and New York Film Festival and it managed to take home the Silver Lion for Best Director for Brady Corbet and the prestigious FIPRESCI Prize (among others) back in Venice - which led A24 (a specialized company at campaigning auteur pieces during awards season successfully) to acquire the movie's distribution rights. Right next there's Sean Baker's Anora, the Palme d'Or winner that was picked by Neon and it had a fantastic Fall film festival season run after the Cannes triumph - it is said to be Baker's best work to date, audiences and critics are loving it and Neon is building a "prestige distributor" reputation that sure helps during the Academy's screenings period (we are talking about the company that led Parasite, Triangle of Sadness and Anatomy of a Fall to the Oscar ceremony). Up next it's Dune: Part II. Despite Warner Bros. efforts to generate another Oscar contender this season (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga failed at the box-office and didn't had audience appeal, Joker: Folie à Deux didn't get the critical support, Blink Twice was average and Clint Eastwood's Juror No. 2 looks average at best), Villeneuve's latest still is the giant distributor's best shot at Oscar glory as it might well be one of the most well-reviewed movies of the year, with solid box-office numbers, it is the rare epic film that don't get made anymore and a frontrunner in a big couple of technical categories, which might capitalize the branches' love in order to generate a Best Picture nomination (and it helps the first installment got nominated here). Considered a roller coaster cinematic ride since its release in Cannes, Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez might be Netflix's crown jewel this year - a crime musical film with a trans story and a female ensemble cast that was awarded the Cannes Film Fesival prize for Best Actress. The fact Netflix picked Emilia Perez and managed to keep the conversation alive and give it a Fall film festival run points an Oscar campaign (and Netflix didn't have problems about getting one or two films nominated in Best Picture in the past). Sing Sing is an interesting player in this race since A24 seems to be campaigning hard for The Brutalist. My question is: where does it leave Sing Sing? The movie received glowing reviews during TIFF 2023 and A24 acquired it and gave it a limited Summer release this year. It could be only an acting showcase for Colman Domingo, but reviews suggest the movie is much more than that and I can see it landing acting, screenplay and Best Picture nominations. As for Focus Features, a distributor that ALWAYS lands a Best Picture nomination every year, it has Edward Berger's Conclave, a political thriller set in a papal crisis which studies personal ambition and faith in a scenario of intrigue. The movie received rave reviews praising its execution, the acting and the smart script, which will appeal to the older and more traditional members of the AMPAS and Focus knows how to campaign!
Then I begin to find contenders a bit more "shaky" and not as sure as the previous ones. Jason Reitman might be back at the Oscar game with Saturday Night, a movie about the process of airing the first episode ever of SNL - reviews are mostly positive, those who love it seem to really love it and the AMPAS loves movies about showbusiness... plus, I can see SAG and WGA going for this one, which could easily boost its chances last minute if Sony plays the game well. Netflix's second best shot at a Best Picture nomination lies in The Piano Lesson, the adaptation of August Wilson's play of the same name by Malcolm Washington that is having a good run since Telluride, gaining honors at Mill Valley, Middleburg, Hamptons and Chicago and it has secured a tribute at the next Gotham Awards... with rave reviews and Oscar buzzy performances from Samuel L. Jackson and Danielle Deadwyler, I see an Oscar run as a natural next stage for this drama. Amazon might be back at the big race thanks to Nickel Boys, about two students who lived abused treatment in a reform school called the Nickel Academy in 1960s Florida - it's a movie that has sparked a lot of talk due not only its content but also due to its form as it takes a POV-style shooting that is described as an edgy narrative form as The Zone of Interest was last year. The AMPAS loves trauma and coping and Nickel Boys has sparked Oscar hopes for Amazon since Telluride and New York Film Festival... it's a movie I believe critics will embrace, but I am cautious about its chances outside of the critics prize circuit. Still... a strong possibility! Last, I bet on The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany's Best International Film submission - one of the most raved international films of the year, the narrative seems as intriguing as the its production story (shot in Iran in secret, the director then fled to Germany so he could present it at Cannes). With numerous film festival prizes and Neon picking its distribution rights, there are strong chances about it cracking the Best Picture lineup (and having Emilia Perez in a more secure spot doesn't stop it, since Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest both managed to make the final cut despite being non-English language films).
Other titles contending for Best Picture: The Substance's hype makes me believe it could nab a Best Picture nod, but genre bias makes me doubt its chances realistically... but could it pull a Foxcatcher performance at the Oscars? I wouldn't be surprised if it does; Pedro Almodóvar's The Room Next Door won the prestigious Golden Lion at Venice (a strong precursor during film festival season), but the reviews are solid, but not spectacular and Sony already has Saturday Night and Ainda Estou Aqui / I'm Still Here as extremely viable Oscar vehicles; Steve McQueen's Blitz also has some promise awards-wise, as the AMPAS (and award bodies in general) love WWII movies, but I felt the trailer was a bit off and Apple seems lazy about creating early buzz around this title; The Wild Robot is overperforming both with critics and at the box-office and it has been a while since the last time an Animated Feature made the Best Picture lineup... it seems to have a very humanist and mature core that pleases adults, but Universal & Dreamworks are not Disney; as for September 5... it seems Oscar experts are trying to make it happen at GoldDerby and X (former Twitter), but I don't see a lot of talking outside there... still, Paramount is a giant in the business and maybe it is keeping its cards until last minute (but the Israel/Palestine divisive views might hurt its chances); Challengers is a hot title, but despite its technical precision and A-game acting trio, I believe it might be too horny and sexual for AMPAS' standards; Didì is very good, but it's too small; Hit Man is very very good, but the "streaming movie" status hurts its chances and Netflix is busy with buzzier and more serious titles; Ainda Estou Aqui / I'm Still Here has all the potential to go beyond Best International Film, but Sony has a full plate this year and I fear it might not rank as high as other titles; and Gladiator II... every time Ridley Scott makes a movie, the Gods flip a coin, but the trailer makes it look "just popcorn entertainment" and "depht lacking".
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