A lot has happened since the October 30 - the time I posted my first Golden Globes nominees predictions. Since then, we've had access to people's reactions at some industry screenings, first critics prizes and box-office results.
As we all know, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) tends to go for bigger stars or star-making turns, when actors go against type, relevant/media-friendly movies and box-office hits. A month ago, I truly thought The Two Popes would do fine with awards, but it seems critics awards are more into The Irishman and Marriage Story, speaking of Netflix productions. Knives Out and Ford v. Ferrari overperformed at the box-office, Joker reached $1 Billion worldwide and Margot Robbie seems to be overshadowed by what seems to be Charlize Theron's brilliant performance in Bombshell (so, I guess her best chance for the Globes is Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood, because the HFPA must love this movie!). As for Bombshell itself, the movie is not getting the rave reviews some people expected, but it still is a movie about a relevant topic and remember the #MeToo movement gained a lot of visibility during a Golden Globes ceremony!
A movie I don't know what to expect is Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell! It was my 7th pick for Best Motion Picture - Drama, my 8th pick for Best Actor - Drama and my 7th pick for Best Supporting Actress... It was near everything, but I didn't feel it strong enough to pop-up at the Globes. I might be wrong, specially in Best Supporting Actress - such an open field, but they have a lot of hotties contending and the HFPA always prefered the young and beautiful ones. As for Shia LaBeouf, I truly believe his redemption tale in Hollywood might start here and while he was my 7th pick for Best Supporting Actor in Honey Boy, I believe he has strong chances of getting a spot in Best Actor - Comedy or Musical for The Peanut Butter Falcon, so I considered him the spoiler in that category. Oh! And will the HFPA resist to nominate both Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig for Best Director, since they are partners in real life? I consider that "battle" for Best Screenplay since Best Director is so tight and since they ignored Gerwig before for Lady Bird... or will they want to apologize for snubing her before?
So, just have a look:
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