Now that the Fall film festival has passed, it's time to make some changes in the Oscar predictions charts: La bola negra is on a winning strike taking home the TIFF's People Choice Award; The movies I Play Rocky and Elsinore revealed themselves as huge crowd-pleasers and can be extremely viable Best Picture candidates; Neon's has found its big Oscar player (Luca Guadagnino's Artificial) and Paper Tiger got more enthusiastic word from New York and London; the unexpected A24's documentary You Can See Everything is (currently) the most well-reviewed movie of the year and it's on track to become a truly unexpected box-office hit; Lee Chang-dong's Possible Love entered Best International Film race and it can have nice shots in screenplay and directing (according to reviews), suprassing the buzz of early favorites All of a Sudden and Fjord; Digger is a bomb and not a promising Oscar vehicle; Sense and Sensibility is doing well with critics and it is projected to have a healthy box-office performance; and Wildwood and Ray Gunn enter the Oscar talk a bit beyond Best Animated Feature category.
Some questions remain: Can the Academy pursue redemption for the way they overlooked Dune: Part II this season with Dune: Part III? Will horror hit Obsession make a splash here?
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey has finally found a challenger for the Best Picture trophy in La bola negra - the Spanish queer epic La bola negra, which has been received under huge enthusiasm and it has settled itself as one of the audiences' favorites - and Netflix will spare no expense in order to finally win the top prize. Dune: Part III is a much antecipated epic and considering its previous two installments went to be nominated here, I expect the final chapter to do the same (but could it avenge the previous films in Best Picture?). Olivia Wilde's The Invite overperformed with both critics and audiences and ended-up its run with impressive box-office numbers and I believe it is A24's best candidate for the Oscars. Searchlight is a reliable distributor and campaigner so I feel Wild Horse Nine is a natural here, specially considering previous Martin McDonagh films did great with Academy voters (Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin). Andrew Scott's starrer Elsinore is kinda overperforming in the film festival circuit proving it can be a true contender on its own and not only a Best Actor vehicle for its lead - and there's plenty of potential for it to be a box-office hit if Focus Features plays it well. Neon's has finally found an irrestible Best Picture contender with Guadagnino's Artiticial, a movie that seems not only to be good but also to be relevant - and its nomination would also be a statement from Academy members (and Neon is great at campaigning). Project Hail Mary was an early release, but I sense it's a movie that stayed with its audience as a feel-good and cozy tale of friendship that earned most people's sympathy... and considering Amazon's resources, I expect a revival of its buzz during awards season. James Gray's Paper Tiger was well-received at Cannes but got an enthusiastic reception at NYFF, which made it one of the buzziest titles at the Fall film festival - strong reviews, acting vehicles and a director who is due to receive his flowers? I am sure Neon will build a strong campaign around this movie that is very likely to appeal to older Academy members (it's a classical crime-thriller, a "dad movie" maybe). Last spot goes for the romantics who might fall for Sense and Sensibility - a movie that got a lot of love critics and (specially) audiences and considering Oscar voters are much like audiences... I believe the romantics (and the British block) will go for this one easily, but healthy BO instead of crazy one does not make headlines and the movie got lost in the middle of other more successful hits, which makes me switch S&S with Laika's Wildwood. This stop-motion animated feature is seducing critics, the internet and it has growing BO numbers! The visuals do look wonderful and the pedigree behind this anti-AI production might just earn it a Best Picture nod!
You Can See Everything, The Debut, I Play Rocky and Obsession are also contenders to keep an eye on since they both got critical acclaim and audience interest, but I am cautious about predicting a The Invite + YCSE + The Debut combo since I don't see A24 being able to successfully land a campaign for these three at the same time. As for Obsession... there's the horror bias and I Play Rocky might surprise, but I see it as a Globes + SAG only sensation for now. Animated feature Ray Gunn should also stay under the radar since both received amazing raves, but it's been a while since the Academy went for an animated film in Best Picture let alone two (unseen)... and Wildwood is in a much better position!
1. La bola negra (Netflix)
2. The Odyssey (Universal)
3. Dune: Part III (Warner Bros.)
4. The Invite (A24)
5. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)
6. Elsinore (Focus Features)
7. Artificial (Neon)
8. Project Hail Mary (Amazon)
9. Paper Tiger (Neon)
10. Wildwood (Laika)
NEXT IN LINE: You Can See Everything (A24); The Debut (A24); Sense & Sensibility (Focus Features); I Play Rocky (Amazon); Possible Love / 가능한 사랑 (Netflix); Obsession (Focus Features); All of a Sudden / 急に具合が悪くなる (Neon); Fjord (Neon); Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street); Ray Gunn (Netflix).
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Julianne Moore takes the lead in the Best Actress race as her performance as a woman discovering herself as she transforms from a shy housewife into a zealous method actor who's willing to do anything to protect the artistic integrity of her role in The Debut - it's a juicy role and it has gotten her some of the best reviews of her career. At this point, her train feels unstoppable. Next it's Inde Navarrette, the breakout star of Obsession who's everywhere these days - the performance is impressive even though horror genre might still be a problem in her path... still, I feel her nomination safe. Next it's Sandra Hüller for her Silver Bear winning performance in Rose (Austria's submission for Best International Film and a viable contender for Best Makeup and Best Cinematography also) - a masterclass in subtle and intense internal acting that showcases her huge talent and proves she's one of the very best working these days! She also has an acclaimed performance in another Best International Film contender (Fatherland), but critics and Oscar folks consensus seem to be about Rose recently (like I've always said!). Then Olivia Wilde in The Invite, who's in a nice track to become the first woman to be nominated for both Best Director and Best Actress for the same film thanks to a bravura comedic performance that ranks amongst some of the best acting I've seen all year (and it might be A24's best Oscar horse). Last spot is tricky because I learned to never overlook a classic literary heroine role here as Daisy Edgar-Jones received "best performance of her career so far" reviews for her role as Elinor Dashwood - and she might join Winona Ryder, Emma Thompson, Keira Knightley or Saoirse Ronan club. I say it's a tricky spot to predict because Jessica Lange has finally released her passion project
where she plays Mary Tyrone for which she received rave reviews (she won a Tony for playing this character in a Broadway production) and she is already campaigning! Note for Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann) who I expect to get a GG+SAG combo, while Jeon Do-yeon (Possible Love) and Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden) might be the critics darlings!
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession
3. Sandra Hüller, Rose
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense & Sensibility
NEXT IN LINE: Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night); Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann); Jeon De-yeon (Possible Love / 가능한 사랑 ); Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden / 急に具合が悪くなる); Carrie Coon (The Liberation).
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Volpi Cup for Best Actor winner John Malkovich seems to have found a role of depht and grace (and comedy) in Wild Horse Nine and the reviews have been quite enthusiastic about his work - which considering the movie is being distributed and promoted/campaigned under the Searchlight banner and the fact Martin McDonagh has already generated a fair amount of Oscar nominated performance in his films, I believe Malkovich is pratically locked for a nomination at this point. Next comes Andrew Scott in Elsinore, where he plays Ian Charleson who prepares for the role of a lifetime and contemplates the meaning of life and being alive while battling AIDS. It's a movie that has been overperforming in the film festival circuit by winning multiple audience awards, a strong indicator not only of Scott's powerful performance but also of the movie's award power (the drama film that feels emotionally rewarding). Matt Damon might not be the best thing about The Odyssey, but he is the lead, the movie is hugely successful at both box-office and in terms of critical reception... plus, it's Nolan and he plays in his own league, which makes me believe AMPAS members will buy anything about this movie, a Best Actor nomination included (plus, Damon is a well-liked star). As for Pattinson in Primetime, I feared it could be a film festivel wonder only, but it translated into a box-office success backed with strong critical reception and some "performance of his career" kind of reviews... in a banner year for Pattinson who has delivered box-office success after box-office success with critical darling movies (The Drama, The Odyssey, Primetime and soon Dune: Part III), I feel like a nomination would be his ultimate movie star crowning moment (because there is no male movie star like him). Last spot goes to Anthony Ippolito for playing Sylvester Stalone in I Play Rocky, but just for now! The movie has become an unexpected hit in the film festival circuit and the AMPAS does love an underdog story of Hollywood put on screen and since critics loved Ippolito's turn and audiences are loving the film, it has a nice shot. The thing is I believe Tom Cruise will still pursue the Oscar nomination for Digger despite the fact it bombed (although critics and audiences agree Cruise was excellent in it!) and I believe he really has a stronger shot than we think at getting it (the most probable scenario is him campaigning on his own and getting at least a GG+SAG nod). Don't exclude Ryan Gosling for Project Hail Mary since Amazon is preparing a campaign for this early released movie nor Seth Rogen who is amazing in The Invite (A24's big horse).
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Robert Pattinson, Primetime
5. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
NEXT IN LINE: Tom Cruise (Digger); Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary); Seth Rogen (The Invite); Sebastian Stan (Fjord); Mahershala Ali (Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother).
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
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