June not only marks the post-Cannes awards talk and the Summer blockbuster season, but it also means most buzzy projects have already prospects of a release date and others are in talks to premiere in Venice, TIFF, Telluride or NYFF: crucial points for the awards season.
While some might complain it is too early since most buzzy projects have only landed in European film festivals and American audiences and critics are different than the European ones, I believe the reception some project have received and which distributor picked it might already say a lot. Plus, it's always fun when we see which of our early picks materializes during awards season.
While some questions still haunt me: Is Malick's The Way of the Wind being released, finally? Is digger another Birdman or will it be another Bardo? Which movie or movies will get Sandra Hüller another Oscar nod (since she's destined to rule this year)? Will The Odyssey be a contender in acting and writing fields? Can the Academy pursue redemption for the way they overlooked Dune: Part II this season with Dune: Part III? Will horror hit Obsession make a splash here?
Here are my very first predictions:
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Julianne Moore comeback to the Oscars? Yes, please and she looks amazing in Jesse Eisenberg's upcoming The Debut (which is lining to be A24's top priority for awards season). It seems she has finally found an undeniable kind of role to land an Oscar nomination (maybe a win???) - and the fact she isn't nominated in a long time might remind voters she has already gotten snubed for Safe (1995), Magnolia (1999), A Single Man (2009), The Kids Are All Right (2010), Maps to the Stars (2014), Gloria Bell (2018) and May December (2023). In such a competitive field with so many great talents in contention this year, I believe the part's quality will be crucial to land a nomination and that's why I have Cynthia Erivo on top of my Best Actress in a Leading Role contenders: she's playing Tessa Ensler in the feature film adaptation of the West End and Broadway sensation play that gave Jodie Comer both an Olivier and a Tony Award (Prima Facie) as a defense lawyer who must deal with some atrocious ghosts of the past. It would be a nice departure from Wicked for Erivo and (if nominated) she would become the most nominated Black actress for Best Actress in a Leading Role. Then I have Sandra Hüller for Rose, which still feels like a shot in the dark since she also has Fatherland, both distributed by Mubi - still, Rose is a period piece that deals with gender questions as a woman disguised as a man tries to live as a good citizen and Hüller not only received rave reviews for her performance but she also won the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance... In the year of Hüllerdomination, I believe she will manage to be nominated for Best Actress, but the question is for which film since Rose seems to have the best and most acclaimed role, but Fatherland seems to be the best film...! Then, the it girl of the year Inde Navarrette with an all timer horror performance in the box-office sensation (and surprise) Obsession. I believe the critics will push her and considering how well audiences and the internet have received her work, I believe the buzz and the talk will keep her momentum - plus, it was said Focus Features is planning an awards campaign for Obsession, which are great news for her. The Best Actress category tends to have a slot for "breakthrough performance" and she fits it perfectly. Another Focus Features girl: Daisy Edgar-Jones doing some prestige period drama in Sense & Sensibility as Elinor Dashwood, a role that granted Emma Thomspon an Academy Award nomination in this same category. Jones has already showed acting muscle plenty of times and I believe it might be the perfect project to give her award recognition in film (her turn in Normal People TV minisseries was so affecting that I'm hopeful with this one). The last spot could also easily go to either Renate Reinsve (Palme d'Or winning film Fjord, which earned strong reviews, got Neon distributing it and she's fresh from an Oscar nod for Sentimental Value) or to Mikey Madison for The Social Reckoning who plays Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen - a recent Oscar win for Anora shows she's in the Academy's good graces and considering her talent and how actor-friendly Aaron Sorkin's scripts tend to be, she one to watch!
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut
2. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
3. Sandra Hüller, Rose
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense & Sensibility
NEXT IN LINE: Renate Reinsve (Fjord); Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning); Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden / 急に具合が悪くなる); Ruth Mandeley (Being Heumann); Michelle Williams (A Place in Hell).
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
In a year ruled by Sandra Hüller with the box-office and acclaim of Project Hail Mary, her Silver Bear prize winning performance in Rose and the honoured Paweł Pawlikowski's Fatherland, could she land a top spot in the Best Supporting Actress category for Alejandro González Iñárritu's Digger? I mean, I believe she is memorable in Project Hail Mary (and I expect it to do well with the Academy), but could she have winning material in Digger? Everything seems to be under wraps about this film, but the buzz is there and I believe she has momentum to win if she delivers. As for Emé Creed-Miles she will be seen as Marianne Dashwood, one of the sisters of the upcoming Sense & Sensibility adaptation and the one who's the "sensibility" - spontaneous, excessive, loving and a romantic idealist. It's a great part that went to be Kate Winslet's big break (and first Oscar nom) back in 1995's adaptation and I expect a similar path to Creed-Miles if the movie succeeds. Next is Scarlett Johansson who gets the traditional Oscar-friendly part of the suffering wife in the James Gray crime drama Paper Tiger - a movie that got great reviews at Cannes and it was picked by Neon for US distribution next Fall - and it's said she goes big and hits some high dramatic notes in a scene destined to be an "Oscar clip"... If she campaigns, I believe she can be a solid contender. The movie a really strong reception at Cannes and considering it feels like James Gray is overdue for some major recognition, I can see it as an awards player. The fourth spot goes to Octavia Spencer as Linda Loman for Death of a Salesman - the adaptation of the play by the same name, directed by Chinonye Chukwu and penned by Chukwu and Tony Kushner - a role that's an awards magnet on West End and Broadway (Laurie Metcalf has just won a Tony with this part yesterday!). Let's have in mind Chinonye Chukwu has pulled some of the most impressive recent performances from her leads (Alfre Woodard in Clemency and Danielle Deadwyler in Till), I am expecting Spencer to be invited back to the Oscar ceremony as a nominee for this one (and let's not forget she was a regular nominee in the 2010's). Fifth spot for Anya Taylor-Joy for Dune: Part III and while I think it might be a lot of wishful thinking truth is Anya was given the part of Alia Atreides - the demi-goddess sister of Paul Atreides that assumes regency of his empire and estabilishes an autocratic regime - a very juicy role! Could Dune: Part III be to Villeneuve what The Return of the King is to Peter Jackson? If so... I can see her landing a nomination since she will get the role and she has the talent!
1. Sandra Hüller, Digger
2. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense & Sensibility
3. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
4. Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra / The Black Ball
5. Anya Taylor-Joy, Dune: Part III
NEXT IN LINE: Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey); Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine); Tao Okamoto (All of a Sudden / 急に具合が悪くなる); Caitriona Balfe (Sense & Sensibility); Gillian Anderson (Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma).
* I was predicting Octavia Spencer (Death of a Salesman) to be a top contender in this category before I learned the movie still is in pre-production and it is set for a 2027 release. so I made a few changes here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
While some might argue about putting Sam Rockwell in the pole position for Wild Horse Nine not only because it looks like he's a co-lead, but also because he has already won an actor and might not be a two-time calibre Oscar winner (which I don't agree and we could go ask Renée Zellweger and Adrien Brody, who are proof the performance it's really what matters) and there's also people saying Rockwell goes lead and Malkovich goes Supporting (possible, but Malkovich headlines the movie). Judging by the trailer, the actor delivers a charismatic comedic turn and I am sure he more than holds himself alongside the bright Malkovich! With Searchlight distributing it I expect Martin Donagh's latest to appeal Oscar voters the same way The Banshees of Inisherin did. Next, I have Adam Driver for Paper Tiger, which earned a big couple of "the best performance of his career" reviews at Cannes - which is saying a lot considering how brilliant Driver is as a dramatic actor. For playing a man who enrolls with his brother in a scheme for easy money but then must navigate the devastating consequences of his ambition, I can see the Academy noticing him in such part. It sure helps that Neon is distributing it and its Fall release date with a perspective of being part of the Fall film festival circuit turn Paper Tiger into a Oscar buzzy title, specially in this category. Third place goes to Steve Buscemi for Wild Horse Nine - an actor who was constantly overlooked by the Academy in the 90s and 00s (when he delivered amazing performances) might have found a role and a project that might have him Oscar dreams. It seems a funny, loud and scene-stealing part, which always succeed in movies that manage to score multiple nods above the line. There's also a relevant precedent: both Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin scored double Best Supporting Actor nods so... Next, I have Jeremy Strong as Zuckerberg in The Social Reckoning, but it's a part I feel that can be easily placed in lead. I thought the movie would revolve around the whistleblower with the "villain" taking the back seat, but the trailer made it look more like a duel and Strong's part looks way bigger, bolder and juicier than I thought (he nailed Zuckerberg's posture and talking voice in my opinion). I put him here because I think it might be a borderline lead and the supporting race looks way less crowded than Best Actor, but I wouldn't be surprised if he goes lead. Fifth place... I might well regret this, because I feel it can easily go for one of the Digger actors (Goodman, Plemons, Ahmed..), but I am putting Colman Domingo here as Mr. Jackson for Michael. Why? Mixed reviews, but audiences embraced the movie and even those who didn't like the movie ended-up loving Domingo's work; he plays a real-life monster dad and he nails the character (and the Academy loves devilish parents); and Domingo is living a career high between Michael, Disclosure Day and Euphoria TV series after getting two Oscar nods in consecutive years. I won't overlook him since it looks one of those GG+SAG combo that turns into an Academy Award nomination.
1. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
2. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
5. Colman Domingo, Michael
NEXT IN LINE: John Goodman (Digger); Channing Tatum (Josephine); George McKay (Sense & Sensibility); Willem Dafoe (Werwulf); Herbert Nordrum (Sense & Sensibility).
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