Academy Awards 2023 nominees predictions: Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay (1st ROUND)

I know these categories come a bit late, but to be honest nothing has changed that much since I first drawed these charts. In fact, the awards race seems like the pundits consensus in these fields, with some titles eyeing a surprise ascension at this point of the race.
Funny how so many Cannes-titles have managed to enter the awards race: Anatomy of a Fall (Anatomie d'une chute), The Zone of Interest, The Taste of Things (La passion de Dodin Bouffant), Asteroid City, May December, Perfect Days or, from a certain perspective, Killers of the Flower Moon. Also, the Summer titles Oppenheimer and Barbie also managed to live-up their critical and box-office successes and their studios are campaigning them successfully.

I don't remember a season with so many early titles under the consideration for the top categories, recently. It amazes me and it defies the concept of "Oscar-baity release date" - it shows that if a film is good, then it will stand the test of Summer season and Fall film festival season.

So, here are my predictions for Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

    BEST DIRECTOR

Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) are locks since the Summer and they presented films of high quality that are Best Picture players - but while Nolan's crushed the box-office, Scorsese's didn't gross as much as expected, still it was celebrated as one of the director's best efforts ever. Third place belongs to Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things, which won the Golden Lion for Best Film of Venice Film Festival and it had a great per-screen average at the box-office during its release weekend - plus, Searchlight is distributing it (and campaigning it), which solidifies Lanthimos' position in the Oscar race. The fourth place goes to Celine Song, the auteur behind Past Lives - her brilliant directorial debut that has earned her widespread recognition, with Past Lives being singled out as one of the very best films of the year. The last spot: Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest, since the Academy loves movies about the Holocaust and he seems to offer a very particular perspective from all the atrocities that happened at that time. The Zone of Interest is also competing as UK's entry for Best International Film, which only boosts Glazer's chances since there's a trend to nominate an international director in the last decade.

Or could the "international" seat go for Justine Triet, the woman behind Anatomy of a Fall? Quite possible, considering the critical boost she and the film itself have received from critics association prizes and their big win at European Film Awards! Plus, Triet won the Palme d'Or at Cannes, which gives her prestige already. The AMPAS owes Bradley Cooper a Best Director nomination (because of his A Star Is Born snub) and he might get it for Maestro instead - although his directing in this one hasn't been receiving universal praise... but he still is a huge name in the industry! Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) also had a terrific breakthrough year as a director and his movie is rising in the awards race... could it lead to American Fiction peaking at the right time? A Best Director nom is a strong possibility. What about Greta Gerwig? I consider Barbie her least outstanding solo directorial effort (the others being Lady Bird and Little Women), but the movie was a huge critical and commercial success and it is dominating the awards conversation and the social media. She would be a non-brainer, but I believe her reward will be a Best Original Screenplay nomination (the Best Director race is just nuts this year!). Am I overthinking or there's a possibility for Trần Anh Hùng (The Taste of Things) to secure a surprise Best Director nomination? Those who have seen The Taste of Things have loved it and since France has submitted it as their official entry for Best International Film, I believe the movie will be widely seen by Academy members... Will they be enchanted by this one like most people are these days? If so, I can see Hùng getting that #5 spot in the Best Director shortlist.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY