The Best Supporting Actor race seems strangely predictable at this point, which makes me doubt my own predictions. It's seems like a category made for estabilished white actors who feel overdue for a (first) win, with the exception of maybe Robert De Niro ( Killers of the Flower Moon ). Robert Downey Jr. feels like the frontrunner to me thanks to Oppenheimer 's global success both critically and the fact he's a hugely popular actor going back to great movies now that his MCU duties are done. The performance sure is showy enough and the fact he plays a charismatic political shark gives him a hand full of "Oscar clips", perfect for campaigning purposes. Next, I think Downey Jr.'s MCU scene partner Mark Ruffalo has estabilished himself as one of the early frontrunners for his performance in the Golden Lion-winning Poor Things - it's said to be a high wire comedic performance and let's not forget Ruffalo has already been nominated three times in this cat...
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