BEST PICTURE While I am quite optimistic and confident about the 8 first contenders, I am not so sure about the #9 and #10 seats. Neon is having an amazing year with Sentimental Value , It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent doing great with the awards bodies, but so it's No Other Choice . Can the distributor get 4 (!!!!) films in the final Best Picture nominees shortlist? If not, I consider No Other Choice as the most fragile of the bunch in the awards conversation. The final spot: I always bet on a blockbuster, but this year's reception of blockbuster has been kinda... lackluster actually. I had Wicked: For Good , but the second part is considerably less acclaimed than the first movie and even audiences recognize the songs are not as epic and the narrative is not as interesting... Can it get enough #1 votes? My guess is "not". Then I considered Avatar: Fire and Ash , which was received with underwhelming reviews, but it is still way too early to get the aud...