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Academy Awards 2026 nominees predictions: Best Picture, acting categories, screenplays and Best Director (1st ROUND, updated)

  • BEST PICTURE

  • BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Leonardo DiCaprio is a true movie star and the enthusiastic reception of Paul Thomas Anderson is earning him a ton of rave reviews while the movie seems to be a pretty solid contender in virtually every category at the Oscars. Timothée Chalamet seems to have landed the a charismatic movie star role in MARTY SUPREME while Danial Day-Lewis is acting (and Oscar royalty) and he looks marvelous in ANEMONE trailer. Jeremy Allen White is fresh from THE BEAR TV series glory and his performance as Bruce Springsteen has already earned him raves (and the AMPAS can't resist a musician's biopic). Last spot goes to Wagner Moura who carries THE SECRET AGENT/O AGENTE SECRETO like the movie star he proves to be - it's a great performance in a great film that will (almost for sure) represent Brazil for Best International Film and with a huge potential to pop in Best Original Screenplay, Director and maybe Picture if Neon decides to champion this one.
The always great Jesse Plemons got raves for BUGONIA, but attention seems to be all in Emma Stone, so let's see how Focus Features will manage the campaign for this one. Maybe the contender no one was really talking about, Lee Byung-hun got huge raves for his turn in Park Chan-wook's NO OTHER CHOICE, but he has to overcome the usual difficulties a (male) non-English speaking performance faces coming awards season. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson got fairly good reviews, but nothing enthusiastic (still, I believe a GG+SAG combo), but THE SMASHING MACHINE got Best Director in Venice, so I am a bit unsure about where this film's award chances will land, honestly. Brendan Fraser seems to deliver his heart (once again) in RENTAL FAMILY and since it looks like Searchlight's awards champion I feel a bit positive about his Oscar prospects, but buzz seems quiet. Tonattiuh got a praised breakthrough performance in Bill Condon's musical KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN, but most lights are pointing in Jennifer Lopez direction for that movie... let's see how Lionsgate campaigns this one.

  • BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Renate Reinsve (SENTIMENTAL VALUE) charmed Cannes, Rose Byrne (IIHLIKY) amazed in Berlin and now Jessie Buckley delivered one of the most raved performances of the year in Telluride and TIFF for HAMNET - I while I doubt all three will make it to the final Oscar shortlist (there's always a season villain), they feel pretty much like a secure trio right now. Then, the overawarded Emma Stone, who made some waves at Venice thanks to her turn in Lanthimo's BUGONIA - and since she feels pretty much like some sort of new generation Meryl Streep, it would be unwise to not predict her (plus Focus will land an Oscar campaign for the movie). As for Sony Pictures Classics (a great campaigning distributor), they seem to be playing their cards with June Squibb who got some amazing reviews for ELEANOR THE GREAT, Scarlett Johansson's directorial debut about a woman who pretendes to be a Holocaust surviror as she deals with grief and loneliness... and while the movie's reception was warm but not enthusiastic, I don't know how it will play, but Squibb sure is due to receive her flowers Next, Cynthia Erivo for her 2nd round at Elphaba in WICKED: FOR GOOD since she was great in this part (previously) and the movie was a critical and commercial success (and I am expecting the same kind of reception and buzz). The "last big contender" is Jennifer Lawrence, who's back to her indie roots with DIE, MY LOVE... and every movie by Lynne Ramsay features a mesmerizing female performance and JLaw has the chops and she already has the rave reviews (lets hope MUBI campaigns this one well). Lucy Liu got some huge praise for her performance in ROSEMEAD but the early of the year buzz has almost vanished... she needs to be acknowledged by the indie organizations prizes in the beginning of the season in order to revive her Oscar dreams. As for Chase Infiniti, who stars ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER... she got the biggest female role but some say it still is a supporting performance... with Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall also in the movie, could WB campaign her as a lead in order to have room for the other two? Category placement doubts me but I feel she will go supporting! Last spot goes to Amanda Seyfried for THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE, a praised performance in what looks to be a critics darling musical drama - finally she seems to be taken seriously... but it hasn't landed a distributor yet, so I'm afraid it loses traction by the time awards season starts.

  • BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Could Neon make the impossible? Three of the strongest contenders in Best Original Screenplay field are international films and the last time more than one foreign language film got nominated for screenplay categories was at the 94th Academy Awards when THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD and DRIVE MY CAR got in (with the former in Best Original Screenplay and the later in Best Adapted Screenplay). Can SENTIMENTAL VALUE, IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT and THE SECRET AGENT get in? Well... I guess not and THE SECRET AGENT looks like the weakest one in this field, but everything else look weaker. Maybe Jim Jarmursh will get nominated for his Golden Lion winning FATHER MOTHER SISTER BROTHER or maybe Ronan Day-Lewis and Daniel Day-Lewis impress the writers branch... or maybe Netflix campaigns A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE really hard... or maybe THE SMASHING MACHINE is the film I am overlooking this year...! My predictions look a lot like wishful thinking in this category.

  • BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • BEST DIRECTOR
This year's Best Director lineup could well end-up being one of the most interesting lineups in the Oscar history. So many international auteurs seem to be perfectly lined to receive major recognition for their directorial efforts... and Paul Thomas Anderson seems to be on the way for his overdue Oscar win for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER.




Notes about each category will be written as this post will be updated.

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