1.
Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady
Born: 22nd June, 1949 - Summit, New Jersey, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 16 nominations, with 2 wins (1980 - Best Supporting Actress for Kramer Vs Kramer; 1983 - Best Leading Actress for Sophie's Choice)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1979 - Manhattan; 1996 - Marvin's Room; 2002 - The Hours
Oscar chances comment: The greatest living actress, Streep is asking for a third Oscar since I remember and maybe she'll get it for her portray of Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. She embodies the English politics leggend perfectly - Thatcher had a really own way of talking and really own gestures - turning this work as one of the most technically perfect performances. I have a theory that says something like "The AMPAS needs Streep more than Streep needs the AMPAS" and I think that the Academy really need to show its love for Streep with some respect and award him and The Iron Lady seems the perfect excuse. She's getting all the major nominations an Oscar win requires (Golden Globe, SAG and Critics' Choice Award) and she took home the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle Award of Best Actress, so a nod is guaranteed. The question around Streep is: will she be able to win the third one, finally? Well, in my opinion, Davis and Williams are really strong contenders, specially Williams who plays an Hollywood actress and only God knows how the Academy members love to recognize an actor or an actress who plays another actor or actress (Davis leads a movie about racial discrimination and, if I'm not wrong, a win for her would turn her the second African American actress winning the Best Leading Actress Oscar, wich would be good for the AMPAS' image).
2.
Michelle Williams for My Week With Marilyn
Born: 9th September, 1980 - Kalispell, Montana, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2006 - Best Supporting Actress for Brokeback Mountain (nom); 2011 - Best Leading Actress for Blue Valentine (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Wendy & Lucy
Oscar chances comment: The Academy loves to see an Hollywood leggend portrayed on-screen and Michelle Williams doesn't deliver a brilliant portray of Marilyn Monroe, she delivers a brilliant portray of the biggest sex symbol ever! Williams is an excelent dramatic actress, there are no doubts about such a fact, and she gives her Marilyn all fragility, the childish sparks and the mimics that are the diva's marks. In my opinion, My Week With Marilyn isn't a very good movie: the movie itself has a lot of flaws and clichés with some casting choices that could be better, but Williams elevates a whole movie and carries it on her shoulder. Williams' performance is nothing but charming and heartbreaking and always spreads sympathy and critics noticed that and raved her in all the ways possible. She's having an amazing awards season, taking home a big couple of critics groups awards of Best Actress and being nominated for a Golden Globe of Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical, for a SAG Award of Outstanding Actress, a Critics' Choice Award of Best Actress or the Independent Spirit Award of Best Leading Female: an Oscar nomination is guaranteed and an Oscar win is possible, definitely!
3.
Viola Davis for The Help
Born: 11th August, 1965 - Saint Matthews, South Carolina, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2009 - Best Supporting Actress for Doubt (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Viola Davis is the main machine that makes The Help working so well - the movie is good, but her moving performance is able to carry the movie and elevate it! The actress who shined brighter than Meryl Streep in a tear-jecking scene of Doubt is the major star in a cast composed by names like Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard, Jessica Chastain, Allison Janney or Sissy Spacek and she's one of the strongest Oscar contenders in this year's Best Actress race! She got universal acclaim from critics around the world, The Help will likely get a Best Picture nomination after being an unexpected box-office sensation and she's having a great awards season - Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress in a Drama, two SAG Award nods (Outstanding Ensemble and Outstanding Actress) and two Critics' Choice Awards noms (Best Acting Ensemble and Best Actress). Her character is extremely sympathetic and Davis does a great job and with all the Oscar buzz around her central performance, she's a lock in the Best Actress category and a serious threat to Meryl Streep's 3rd Oscar win... Nothing else to say.
4.
Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs
Born: 19th March, 1947 - Greenwich, Connecticut, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1983 - Best Supporting Actress for The World According to Garp (nom); 1984 - Best Supporting Actress for The Big Chill (nom); 1985 - Best Supporting Actress for The Natural (nom); 1988 - Best Leading Actress for Fatal Attraction (nom); 1989 - Best Leading Actress for Dangerous Liaisons (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: For some reason, I think she's vulnerable enough to get an Oscar snub, but I can't forget how the AMPAS must love when an actress plays a man and, in this movie, Glenn Close plays a woman who passes as a man in order to work and survive, which sounds like the perfect character for an Oscar nomination. There was a lot of Oscar buzz around Close's performance even before the movie shooting was finished and the final result was a very nice performance from her, but it wasn't the "showy tour de force" performance most Oscar folks were expecting from Close, an actress who's overdue for an Oscar win. In my opinion, Close is brilliant, but not powerful enough to be "always on my mind". I mean, she portrays a sweet, restrained and sad little woman/man with a lot of soul, but there's a small lack of ecstasy (maybe it is screenplay's fault). The performance earned Close a Golden Globe of Best Actress in a Drama nomination and a SAG nod as well, which helps keeping the Oscar buzz strong, but I've doubts about how certain getting an Oscar nomination for Albert Nobbs is for her. She's overdue for a win and she won't win an Oscar for this performance, specially with Streep, Williams and Davis in her way, so, maybe some Oscar voters will choose another actress instead of her (I would say Swinton or Mara)... but a nod without a win is always better than not being nominated and since it sounds like a career comeback...
5.
Rooney Mara for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Born: 1985 - Bedford, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: With one of the best roles of the year (a dream role, to be honest), Rooney Mara delivers a transcendent and raw performance as Lisbeth Salander, which is, in my opinion, one of the best acting performances of the year, by far! She's completely magnetic and she embodies the character so well, being even better than Noomi Rapace, who played the same role in the Swedish movies (don't get me wrong, I thought Rapace was quite good, I simply loved her performance, but Mara brought a kind of fragility and sadness to Lisbeth's eyes that Rapace didn't, showing the character has the damaged girl she is) and audiences are going crazy with the movie and with her work. Critics raved her "star making" performance and she got a Golden Globe of Best Actress in a Drama nomination and tied the National Board of Review of Breakthrough Performance with Felicity Jones (Like Crazy), but she missed a SAG Award nod and a Critics' Choice Award one too, which may turn her Oscar chances less obvious than the critical acclaim makes it look to be. I believe Mara will get an Academy Award nomination for her performance in Fincher's latest movie, beating Swinton and Olsen in the battle for the 5th spot in the Best Actress Oscar shortlist, thanks to The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo box-office momentum that will make audiences going crazy for this movie! I would be sad, but not surprised, if she will be snubed when nominees are announced...
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6.
Tilda Swinton for We Need To Talk About Kevin
Born: November 5, 1960 - London, England, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2008 - Best Supporting Actress for Michael Clayton (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2001 - The Deep End; 2008 - Julia; 2009 - I Am Love
Oscar chances comment: Swinton is one of the most talented and interesting actresses working today and her performance in We Need To Talk About Kevin is a proof of that. She plays a traumatized mother of a young man who killed his father and his young sister and commited a massacre at his high school and her performance was one of the sensations of this year's edition of Cannes Film Festival and it gave her a couple of big awards (National Board of Review of Best Actress and the European Film Award of Best Actress) and a ton of nominations (Golden Globe of Best Actress - Drama, SAG Award of Outstanding Leading Actress, Critics' Choice Award of Best Actress or Online Film Critics Society Award of Best Actres), making her a major contender in the Oscar race. But while all this recognitions promise an Oscar nomination, I can't forget how often the AMPAS snubs her and that people just do not love Tilda Swinton, which may give Swinton's spot between the Best Actress nominees to someone younger, prettier and that never got Oscar recognition (Mara, Olsen, Dunst or Jones) for a good performance in a much more Oscar-friendly movie... She's a tricky contender, but I think she has chances, not agains the young beauties in the 5th spot battle, but against Glenn Close...
7.
Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene
Born: 16th February, 1989 - Sherman Oaks, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: The youngest of the Olsen sisters was the hit girl of Sundance Film Festival thanks to her raved "a star is born performance" in the indie Martha Marcy May Marlene, in which she plays a damaged young woman who escapes from a cult group. The Oscar buzz around her performance was incredibly huge until the beginning of the awards season, when she became a victim of atrocious snubs and lost a couple of Breakthrough Performance awards, but things didn't go "not well" for Olsen: critics groups simply loved her and they are showing their love during this awards season, making her part of the nominees lists that also feature major Oscar contenders like Streep, Davis or Williams. She may not be nominated for a Golden Globe or for a SAG Award, but she wouldn't be the first actresses who gets an Oscar nomination without these awards' previous recognition. Her performance is brilliant and there's always a spot for a breakthrough performance in the Best Actress Oscar nominees shortlist, so she has really good chances, but she's competing against Rooney Mara, who also features a brilliant breakthrough performance in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Tilda Swinton in one of the best performances of her career in We Need To Talk About Kevin...
8.
Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia
Born: 30th April, 1982 - Point Pleasant, New Jersey, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1994 - Interview with the Vampire: The Vampire Chronicles
Oscar chances comment: Since she was a child actress, Kirsten Dunst always revealed amazing dramatic acting chops and Lars von Trier used them in Melancholia and the result is one of the best acting performances of the year, the prestigious Cannes Film Festival Award of Best Actress and a solid Oscar buzz. Dunst plays a drepressed bride during the last days before the end of the world and while she didn't get Golden Globe, SAG Award or Critics' Choice Award noms, the buzz around her performances keeps strong enough thanks to the recognition she has been getting from critics' organizations. She'll likely earn a BAFTA Award nomination (BAFTA seems to love European better than Hollywood), but will she become an Oscar nominee for Melancholia? Lars von Trier directed actresses tend to not get Oscar glory in spite of how wonderful their performances are (Björk for Dancer in the Dark and Charlotte Gainsbourg for Antichrist), but there's always the exception of Emily Watson for Breaking Waves and since Dunst is a well-known actress who seems to having her career back on track after a couple of flops, I would love to see her getting the Oscar nomination she deserves for Melancholia!
9.
Charlize Theron for Young Adult
Born: 7th August, 1975 - Benoni, Gauteng, South Africa
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2004 - Best Leading Actress for Monster (win); 2006 - Best Leading Actress for North Country (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Early reviews of Young Adult created a huge Oscar buzz around Charlize Theron's portray of a "psychotic prom queen bitch!" in Young Adult, but her SAG Awards snub hurted her Oscar chances... Since her character isn't a sympathetic one, people may find hard to love such a bitch and Oscar voters may be just not that into voting for Theron, in spite of the amazing work she shows on screen. But she got a Golden Globe of Best Actress - Comedy or Musical nomination and a Critics' Choice Award of Best Actress one too and, with or without Oscar nom, this can be called Charlize Theron's comeback and the AMPAS simply loves when one of its darlings' career is back on track, so, Miss Theron may keep her Oscar hopes alive. She's an Oscar winner (for one of the best performances ever by an actress - playing Aileen Wuornos in Monster), very popular, very talented and a beauty icon and audiences would love to see her nominated... Plus, she was directed by Jason Reitman, who gave four Oscar acting nominations in his last two movies (Juno and Up In the Air), so I think Charlize still has good chances in get recognized by the Academy, in spite of Young Adult's only "good" critical reception.
10.
Felicity Jones for Like Crazy
Born: 17th October, 1983 - Birmingham, West Midlands, England, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Miss Jones portrays a college student who falls madly in love for an american young man and everybody loves a love story and the AMPAS is no exception, specially when the leading lady is such a beautiful woman. Drake Doremus' Like Crazy was the biggest winner for Sundance Film Festival by taking home the Jury Grand Prize - Dramatic and the Jury Special Prize for Acting - Dramatic, which was given to Felicity Jones for her marvelous performances. Critics acclaimed her performance by calling her a "marvel" or a "magnet" and she took home a big couple of Breakthrough Performance awards from the indie film awards, beating one of the most serious Oscar contenders in the Best Actress category: Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene. One of the year's biggest acting revelations and one of the most promising actresses right now, Felicity Jones may not be one of the front-runners in the Best Actress race, but AMPAS members love dark-horses once in a while and since she's simply enchanting in Like Crazy, maybe she will get a nice number of votes and get an Oscar nom, in spite of not getting a lot of awards attentions.
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