Since the post about my 2nd ROUND of Best Picture nominees predictions was a long long time ago, I believe I had the obligation to revise my ranking and make some updates. In my opinion, it is too soon for a 3rd ROUND - it will come in November - so, at least, I decided to rethink about the top Oscar category (I know the Best Leading Actress field needs some updates, but it must wait for the 3rd ROUND).
1.
Les Misérables
Director: Tom Hooper
Starring: Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, Sasha Baron Cohen and Samantha Barks
Synopsis: "Set against the backdrop of 19th-century France, Les Misérables tells an enthralling story of broken dreams and unrequited love, passion, sacrifice and redemption-a timeless testament to the survival of the human spirit. Jackman plays ex-prisoner Jean Valjean, hunted for decades by the ruthless policeman Javert (Crowe) after he breaks parole. When Valjean agrees to care for factory worker Fantine's (Hathaway) young daughter, Cosette, their lives change forever."
The adaptation of one of the most loved musical shows in the whole world - Les Misérables - promises to be breath taking and one of the most acclaimed movies of the year. Directed by Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), this movie set the bar high for itself by releasing a beautiful and emotional movie trailer, generating the strongest Oscar buzz of the pre-awards season. The stage adaptations of the movie tend to be always epic and the same may happen with the movie if Hooper knows how to manage everything. Starring Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway and a big couple of other stars, this story about the dramas of a group of people in 19th-century Paris, promises a lot and if it achieves all its potential, Les Miz will be a certain Best Picture nominee.
2.
2.
Life of Pi
Director: Ang Lee
Starring: Suraj Sharma, Irrfan and Tobey Maguire
Synopsys: "The story of an Indian boy named Pi, a zookeeper's son who finds himself in the company of a hyena, zebra, orangutan, and a Bengal tiger after a shipwreck sets them adrift in the Pacific Ocean."
Ang Lee's comeback to Oscar glory? After being the first non-white director winning the Academy Award of Best Director for Brokeback Mountain, Lee has been away from big awards races and his last effort, Taking Woodstock, was the less well-received of his career, but things may change with his adaptation of Life of Pi. It promises to be a movie different from any other released or that will be released this year, so standing out from the crowd will not be a problem, but, to be honest, I don't know what to think about this project... It sounds like the kind of movie that may turn into a hit or into a flop, but Lee is a gifted director, so I believe this one will be one of the most interesting movies of 2012 - and the Academy loves to honour a big director's triumphant comeback with a Best Picture nod!
Starring: Suraj Sharma, Irrfan and Tobey Maguire
Synopsys: "The story of an Indian boy named Pi, a zookeeper's son who finds himself in the company of a hyena, zebra, orangutan, and a Bengal tiger after a shipwreck sets them adrift in the Pacific Ocean."
Ang Lee's comeback to Oscar glory? After being the first non-white director winning the Academy Award of Best Director for Brokeback Mountain, Lee has been away from big awards races and his last effort, Taking Woodstock, was the less well-received of his career, but things may change with his adaptation of Life of Pi. It promises to be a movie different from any other released or that will be released this year, so standing out from the crowd will not be a problem, but, to be honest, I don't know what to think about this project... It sounds like the kind of movie that may turn into a hit or into a flop, but Lee is a gifted director, so I believe this one will be one of the most interesting movies of 2012 - and the Academy loves to honour a big director's triumphant comeback with a Best Picture nod!
3.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Director: Ben Zeitlin
Starring: Quvenzhané Wallis and Dwight Henry
Synopsis: "In a forgotten but defiant bayou community cut off from the rest of the world by a sprawling levee, a six-year-old girl exists on the brink of orphanhood. Buoyed by her childish optimism and extraordinary imagination, she believes that the natural world is in balance with the universe until a fierce storm changes her reality. Desperate to repair the structure of her world in order to save her ailing father and sinking home, this tiny hero must learn to survive unstoppable catastrophes of epic proportions."
Considered one of the most memorable indie productions of the last years and one of the best Sundance Film Festival Grand Jury Prize winners since the film festival exists, but the truth is that Beasts of the Southern Wild may be almost "too good" to get a Best Picture Oscar nomination. Ben Zeitlin did a "miracle" with less than 2 million dollars and critics noticed that, calling Beasts "a game-changer that gets you excited about movies again" (Peter Travers in Rolling Stone) and praising its direction, the young star (miss Wallis) and the cinematography work. Empathy is needed in order to get AMPAS recognition and while happiness may not be easy to find in a movie about tragedy and poor people, the fact is that the movie offers some sweet moments and fills your heart with hope. I believe the Academy will fall in love for this one.
Director: Ben Affleck
Starring: Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston, John Goodman, Chris Messina, Kyle Chandler, Clea DuVall, Tate Donovan and Alan Arkin
Synopsis: "Based on true events, Argo chronicles the life-or-death covert operation to rescue six Americans, which unfolded behind the scenes of the Iran hostage crisis-the truth of which was unknown by the public for decades. On November 4, 1979, as the Iranian revolution reaches its boiling point, militants storm the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage. But, in the midst of the chaos, six Americans manage to slip away and find refuge in the home of the Canadian ambassador. Knowing it is only a matter of time before the six are found out and likely killed, a CIA "exfiltration" specialist named Tony Mendez (Ben Affleck) comes up with a risky plan to get them safely out of the country. A plan so incredible, it could only happen in the movies."
Ben Affleck is back and while I must admit that three directed movies in a row with such universal praise would be almost impossible to happen, the truth is that Mr. Affleck is getting raves for his latest thriller Argo. A movie about a fake movie that is a secret mission in an "exotic place" - the Academy must love this kind of story. Affleck proves that Gone Baby Gone and The Town were children of true talent and the AMPAS must honour this promise of filmmaking, so, Argo is a lock under the Oscar voters radar. Once the movie already had a big pre-release Oscar buzz and since it is matching expectations and surprising critics and audiences in Toronto, with the kind of reviews it has been collecting, I've no doubts Argo will receive a lot of awards and Best Picture nod seems well-assured right now. I believe the "Toronto heat" is hot enough to keep it strong until the nominees anouncement.
4.
Argo
Director: Ben Affleck
Starring: Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston, John Goodman, Chris Messina, Kyle Chandler, Clea DuVall, Tate Donovan and Alan Arkin
Synopsis: "Based on true events, Argo chronicles the life-or-death covert operation to rescue six Americans, which unfolded behind the scenes of the Iran hostage crisis-the truth of which was unknown by the public for decades. On November 4, 1979, as the Iranian revolution reaches its boiling point, militants storm the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage. But, in the midst of the chaos, six Americans manage to slip away and find refuge in the home of the Canadian ambassador. Knowing it is only a matter of time before the six are found out and likely killed, a CIA "exfiltration" specialist named Tony Mendez (Ben Affleck) comes up with a risky plan to get them safely out of the country. A plan so incredible, it could only happen in the movies."
Ben Affleck is back and while I must admit that three directed movies in a row with such universal praise would be almost impossible to happen, the truth is that Mr. Affleck is getting raves for his latest thriller Argo. A movie about a fake movie that is a secret mission in an "exotic place" - the Academy must love this kind of story. Affleck proves that Gone Baby Gone and The Town were children of true talent and the AMPAS must honour this promise of filmmaking, so, Argo is a lock under the Oscar voters radar. Once the movie already had a big pre-release Oscar buzz and since it is matching expectations and surprising critics and audiences in Toronto, with the kind of reviews it has been collecting, I've no doubts Argo will receive a lot of awards and Best Picture nod seems well-assured right now. I believe the "Toronto heat" is hot enough to keep it strong until the nominees anouncement.
5.
Moonrise Kingdom
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Jared Gilman, Kara Hayward, Bruce Willis, Frances McDormand, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Jason Schwartzman and Tilda Swinton
Synopsis: "Set on an island off the coast of New England in the summer of 1965, Moonrise Kingdom tells the story of two twelve-year-olds who fall in love, make a secret pact, and run away together into the wilderness. As various authorities try to hunt them down, a violent storm is brewing off-shore -- and the peaceful island community is turned upside down in more ways than anyone can handle. "
A tale of naïve young love, directed by the always vibrant Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom emerges as a major Best Picture contender since its box-office performance looks more like a successful big-studio-Christmas-family-movie than a "normal" independent production in the middle of Summer. If there's something we all experienced is "living our first love" and the AMPAS members may connect with the movie in that way. Plus, there's an all-star composed ensemble cast, which brings a lot of pedigree to this production and it will call some attentions from Oscar voters. While I don't see Moonrise Kingdom as a "lock" in the Best Picture race, the critical praise and tickets sales are a really strong indicator of the cinematic quality and, at this time, ignoring this movie is impossible.
6.
Hyde Park On Hudson
Director: Roger Michell
Starring: Bill Murray, Laura Linney, Olivia Williams, Olivia Colman and Samuel West
Synopsis: "Producer/director Roger Michell teams with screenwriter Richard Nelson to adapt Nelson's BBC radio play chronicling the extramarital affair between President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Bill Murray) and his distant cousin, Daisy (Laura Linney), which comes to light during a royal visit from the King and Queen of England (Samuel West and Olivia Colman) at his home in Hyde Park. As war engulfs Europe and the king seeks the support of the American president, President Roosevelt struggles to balance his domestic affairs with his international obligations as Commander in Chief."
The AMPAS loves American Presidents and British Royality and, well... Hyde Park On Hudson is about the historical meeting between the British Royal Family and President Roosevelt! Bill Murray stars this comedy-drama that kind of reminds me The King's Speech a bit. It's about a story of a love affair during an important weekend for two nations, with some funny situations and lovely moments, making me believe it will be Oscar-baity enough in order to compete in the Best Picture Oscar race. While it seems to be getting good but not great reviews from Toronto, I believe the AMPAS will fall in love easily for this one, because, let's be honest, if the movie is feel-good enough and tells an interesting story, Oscar voters tend to vote for it. Sometimes it isn't all about high-quality, but about being sympathetic and lovely!
7.
7.
The Sessions
Director: Ben Lewin
Starring: John Hawkes, Helen Hunt and William H. Macy
Synopsys: "Based on the poignantly optimistic autobiographical writings of California-based journalist and poet Mark O'Brien, The Sessions tells the story of a man confined to an iron lung who is determined - at age 38 - to lose his virginity. With the help of his therapists and the guidance of his priest, he sets out to make his dream a reality."
Winning the Sundance Film Festival Audience Award - Dramatic is a strong indicator of how loved The Sessions (previously named The Surrogate) were at the time the film festival was running. Acclaimed by the critics and loved by the audiences, the story of a man in an iron lung may be this awards season surprise in my point of view. People love this kind of stories and The Sessions is driven by amazing acting performances, according to reviews, which will benefit the movie, giving it some visibility in the way that the actors work shows the movie itself. Precious or The Station Agent are some previous winners of the Audience Award of Sundance and both were in the run for a Best Picture Oscar nomination, with Precious getting one of the spots of the nominees shortlist, so, I believe The Sessions has good chances, specially if it receives strong recognition from indie cinema awards.
8.
8.
The Master
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams
Synopsys: "A striking portrait of drifters and seekers in post World War II America, Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master unfolds the journey of a Naval veteran (Joaquin Phoenix) who arrives home from war unsettled and uncertain of his future - until he is tantalized by The Cause and its charismatic leader (Philip Seymour Hoffman)."
Critics and cinephiles gained a lot of respect for Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master, which took home a couple of prizes from Venice (but not the Golden Lion), but festival protégées don't always tend to get a Best Picture nomination. In this case, the movie already had a huge Oscar buzz in almost all the big categories and I believe it is certain that it will score a big couple of nods in the acting and screenplay fields, but I believe its Best Picture chances are similar to last year's The Tree of Life. It isn't an epic dimensions movie, but Peter Travers from Rolling Stone called it "the best of the year so far, and a new American classic", so its quality seems to be undeniable. Some may say this "too good for Oscars"... well, I believe the AMPAS always recognizes true quality some way. Love PT Anderson movies (Magnolia and Punch-Drunk Love are my favorites from him), The Master looks so freakin' awesome and the raves are drivin' me crazy and generating an instant and giant Best Picture buzz impossible to ignore.
Critics and cinephiles gained a lot of respect for Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master, which took home a couple of prizes from Venice (but not the Golden Lion), but festival protégées don't always tend to get a Best Picture nomination. In this case, the movie already had a huge Oscar buzz in almost all the big categories and I believe it is certain that it will score a big couple of nods in the acting and screenplay fields, but I believe its Best Picture chances are similar to last year's The Tree of Life. It isn't an epic dimensions movie, but Peter Travers from Rolling Stone called it "the best of the year so far, and a new American classic", so its quality seems to be undeniable. Some may say this "too good for Oscars"... well, I believe the AMPAS always recognizes true quality some way. Love PT Anderson movies (Magnolia and Punch-Drunk Love are my favorites from him), The Master looks so freakin' awesome and the raves are drivin' me crazy and generating an instant and giant Best Picture buzz impossible to ignore.
9.
Django Unchained
Director: Quentin Tarantino
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Don Johnson, Samuel L. Jackson, Sasha Baron Cohen, Kerry Washington and Jonah Hill
Synopsys: "With the help of his mentor, a slave-turned-bounty hunter sets out to rescue his wife from a brutal Mississippi plantation owner."
Quentin Tarantino became a synonym of violence, blood and strong language, but he also became a synonym of quality. This Christmas he brings Django Unchained, a western tale of revenge with a stunning ensemble cast. While Django may be more in the line of Kill Bill: Vol. 1 and Kill Bill: Vol. 2 (snubed in the major awards categories) than Pulp Fiction or Inglorious Basterds (Tarantino Best Picture nominated movies), it may have in its advantage being a western: an high-quality western is rare, but when there's one, it gets always some kind of recognition from the Academy. The search of the loved one, slavery, revenge and tiranny look like subjects of Tarantino upcoming movie, juicy and interesting subject, that may call the attentions of the Oscar voters and make Django Unchained more award-worthy looking, putting this movie in the run for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.
10.
The Dark Knight Rises
Director: Christopher Nolan
Starring: Christian Bale, Gary Oldman, Tom Hardy, Anne Hathaway, Michael Caine, Liam Neeson, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Marion Cotillard and Morgan Freeman
Synopsys: "It has been eight years since Batman vanished into the night, turning, in that instant, from hero to fugitive. Assuming the blame for the death of D.A. Harvey Dent, the Dark Knight sacrificed everything for what he and Commissioner Gordon both hoped was the greater good. For a time the lie worked, as criminal activity in Gotham City was crushed under the weight of the anti-crime Dent Act. But everything will change with the arrival of a cunning cat burglar with a mysterious agenda. Far more dangerous, however, is the emergence of Bane, a masked terrorist whose ruthless plans for Gotham drive Bruce out of his self-imposed exile. But even if he dons the cape and cowl again, Batman may be no match for Bane.."
The Dark Knight Rises is something spectacular, truly brilliant and very well-made, which usually generates instant Oscar chances, but comparisons with the second installement of Nolan's Batman trilogy may hurt TDKR Best Picture Oscar chances a lot, in spite of its quality. The Dark Knight got a big snub in the Best Picture and Best Director races, but will the Academy pass another opportunity to recognize Nolan's inovative work in the this franchise and let down a whole fanbase? Well, reviews say that, more than a superhero movie, The Dark Knight Rises is a provocative, sad and brutal reflexion about the American society when confronted with chaos: sounds juicy, right? Well, in fact TDKR is getting some serious Oscar buzz in a big couple of categories like Best Cinematography, Best Production Design or Best Visual Effect, but most people seem to do not have any hopes around this one. TDKR may not be as inovative as its predecessor was at the time, but it is, no matter what, a cinematic triumph that won't be ignored during the awards season, for sure.
11. Lincoln
Director: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tommy Lee Jones, Jackie Earle Haley, Jared Harris, John Hawkes, Sally Field, David Strathairn and Hal Holbrook
Synopsys: "Steven Spielberg directs Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln," a revealing drama that focuses on the 16th President's tumultuous final months in office. In a nation divided by war and the strong winds of change, Lincoln pursues a course of action designed to end the war, unite the country and abolish slavery. With the moral courage and fierce determination to succeed, his choices during this critical moment will change the fate of generations to come."
12. Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Starring: Jessica Chastain, Joel Edgerton, Mark Strong, Edgar Ramirez, Ricky Sekhon, Jennifer Ehle, Chris Pratt, Kyle Chandler and Nina Arianda
Synopsis: "The story of the Navy SEAL team that tracked down Osama bin Laden."
13. The Hunger Games
Director: Gary Ross
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Stanley Tucci, Elizabeth Banks and Lenny Kravitz
Synopsis: "Every year in the ruins of what was once North America, the evil Capitol of the nation of Panem forces each of its twelve districts to send a teenage boy and girl to compete in the Hunger Games. A twisted punishment for a past uprising and an ongoing government intimidation tactic, The Hunger Games are a nationally televised event in which "Tributes" must fight with one another until one survivor remains. Pitted against highly-trained Tributes who have prepared for these Games their entire lives, Katniss is forced to rely upon her sharp instincts as well as the mentorship of drunken former victor Haymitch Abernathy. If she's ever to return home to District 12, Katniss must make impossible choices in the arena that weigh survival against humanity and life against love."
12. Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Starring: Jessica Chastain, Joel Edgerton, Mark Strong, Edgar Ramirez, Ricky Sekhon, Jennifer Ehle, Chris Pratt, Kyle Chandler and Nina Arianda
Synopsis: "The story of the Navy SEAL team that tracked down Osama bin Laden."
13. The Hunger Games
Director: Gary Ross
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Stanley Tucci, Elizabeth Banks and Lenny Kravitz
Synopsis: "Every year in the ruins of what was once North America, the evil Capitol of the nation of Panem forces each of its twelve districts to send a teenage boy and girl to compete in the Hunger Games. A twisted punishment for a past uprising and an ongoing government intimidation tactic, The Hunger Games are a nationally televised event in which "Tributes" must fight with one another until one survivor remains. Pitted against highly-trained Tributes who have prepared for these Games their entire lives, Katniss is forced to rely upon her sharp instincts as well as the mentorship of drunken former victor Haymitch Abernathy. If she's ever to return home to District 12, Katniss must make impossible choices in the arena that weigh survival against humanity and life against love."
14. Inside Llewyn Davis
Director: Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
Starring: Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, Justin Timberlake, John Goodman and Garrett Hedlund
Synopsys: "A singer-songwriter navigates New York's folk music scene during the 1960s."
15. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Director: Peter Jackson
Starring: Martin Freeman, Ian McKellen, Richard Armitage, Hugo Weaving, Cate Blanchett and Andy Serkis
Synopsis: "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey follows title character Bilbo Baggins, who is swept into an epic quest to reclaim the lost Dwarf Kingdom of Erebor, which was long ago conquered by the dragon Smaug. Approached out of the blue by the wizard Gandalf the Grey, Bilbo finds himself joining a company of thirteen dwarves led by the legendary warrior Thorin Oakenshield. Although their goal lies to the East and the wastelands of the Lonely Mountain, first they must escape the goblin tunnels, where Bilbo meets the creature that will change his life forever... Gollum. Here, alone with Gollum, on the shores of an underground lake, the unassuming Bilbo Baggins not only discovers depths ofguile and courage that surprise even him, he also gains possession of Gollum's "precious" ...a simple, gold ring that is tied to the fate of all Middle-earth in ways Bilbo cannot begin to know."
Director: Peter Jackson
Starring: Martin Freeman, Ian McKellen, Richard Armitage, Hugo Weaving, Cate Blanchett and Andy Serkis
Synopsis: "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey follows title character Bilbo Baggins, who is swept into an epic quest to reclaim the lost Dwarf Kingdom of Erebor, which was long ago conquered by the dragon Smaug. Approached out of the blue by the wizard Gandalf the Grey, Bilbo finds himself joining a company of thirteen dwarves led by the legendary warrior Thorin Oakenshield. Although their goal lies to the East and the wastelands of the Lonely Mountain, first they must escape the goblin tunnels, where Bilbo meets the creature that will change his life forever... Gollum. Here, alone with Gollum, on the shores of an underground lake, the unassuming Bilbo Baggins not only discovers depths ofguile and courage that surprise even him, he also gains possession of Gollum's "precious" ...a simple, gold ring that is tied to the fate of all Middle-earth in ways Bilbo cannot begin to know."
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