Yeah... it's ROUND 0 because it's just too early to predict anything, but people are already talking about some movie titles and some acting names and I just can't resist sharing my early thoughts. Last year, 5 of my 15 Best Picture contenders from the 1st round (April) ended getting a Best Picture nomination (Beasts, Les Miz and Django were part of my first 10, while Lincoln was #11 and Life of Pi was #12), which is not bad at all... So, this time I'm going to begin with Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories, because I feel I need to "study" a bit more about this year's Best Picture contenders. 1st ROUND nominees predictions will take place after Cannes Film Festival.
So, let my silly Academy Awards 2014 nominees predictions begin:
- BEST ACTOR
1.
Steve Carell for Foxcatcher
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2006 - Little Miss Sunshine
It's always interesting to see actors we usually relate to the comedy genre having an adventure in the drama field and it's always award-worthy when they succeed! So, this year we have Steve Carell (the man from The Office TV series or The 40 Year Old Virgin) portraying John du Pont, theAmerican multimillionaire who suffered from paranoid schizophrenia and killed an Olympic wrestler (played by Mark Ruffalo): let me say it sounds more than "just interesting"! I guess it may be my most antecipated performance of the year and let me say why: because Bennett Miller, the director responsible for Philip Seymour Hoffman's Oscar-winning amazing performance in Capote and for turning Jonah Hill (a former acting-joke for most) an Oscar nominated actor, is behind Foxcatcher's cameras. Carell is already under the radar and people are curious about his in Foxcatcher, so he just needs to succeed as du Pont in order to get the awards recognition.
2.
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1994 - Best Supporting Actor for What's Eating Gilbert Grape? (nom); 2005 - Best Actor for The Aviator (nom); 2007 - Best Actor for Blood Diamond (nom);
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2006 - The Departed; 2008 - Revolutionary Road; 2011 - J. Edgar; 2012 - Django Unchained
Poor DiCaprio, overdue for a fourth Oscar nomination for such a long time, no matter how many successful movies he starred or how many Oscary performances he delivered... but he's reuniting with Martin Scorsese once again in what seems to be a movie that fits the Academy's tastes: the crime/drama The Wolf of Wall Street. No matter how's DiCaprio's character, I'm sure he'll deliver a good performance (he's a quite good drama actor, no matter how much some don't like him), but under Scorsese's direction Leo is just top-notch! With all these factors, DiCaprio is one of those major Oscar "wolves" of the year. And... by the way, he'll be playing a New York stockbroker, who refuses to cooperate in a large securities fraud case involving corruption on Wall Street, the corporate banking world and mob infiltration.
3.
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2012 - Magic Mike
McConaughey started a series of impressing turns since The Lincoln Lawyer (2010), shinning in Bernie, Killer Joe, Magic Mike and Mud, but he failed being recognized by the Academy. But this year, he has what seems to be a juicy part as Ron Woodroof, a drug taking, women loving, homophobic man who, in 1986 was diagnosed with full blown HIV/AIDS and given thirty days to live. Oscar voters love actors playing dying people and physical transformations (I can't precise how many pounds McConaughey lost for the part, but he's so thin in set's pictures!), and since McConaughey proved he can really act, I guess he must be under serious consideration for Dallas Buyer's Club. He's popular, considered a sex symbol (when he wasn't so thin) and he's estabilishing himself as a "serious actor", so an Oscar nom may happen easier than some might think (judging by his most recent works, it can happen).
4.
Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Sundance Film Festival Grand Jury Prize winners are factories of Oscar nominated performances (even Like Crazy who got completely snubed by the Academy earned Felicity Jones huge Oscar buzz and award recognition), so why would the acclaimed Fruitvale be different? Michael B. Jordan shined in The Wire T.V. series and in Chronicle and critics say he's amazing in Fruitvale, playing Oscar in the last day of his young life. The movie was acquired by The Weinstein Company (who's well-known for managing aggressive yet effective Oscar campaigns), which is great for Michael B. Jordan's Oscar hopes. Plus, the AMPAS loves newcomers/breakthrough performances and it may well be Jordan's year. Some might say he's young for a Best Actor nomination (voters tend to vote for a bit older men in this category), but Jesse Eisenberg managed to get his nod for The Social Network when he was "only" 27, not only because of his performance alone, but also because of the movie's Best Picture buzz. This way, I believe if Fruitvale gets a Best Picture nomination, B. Jordan will become an Oscar nominated actor (I might be wrong, but it sounds quite possible to me right now).
5.
Colin Firth for The Railway Man
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2010 - Best Actor for A Single Man (nom); 2011 - Best Actor for The King's Speech (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
It took some time in order to Colin Firth seduce the members of the Academy, but he did it with Tom Ford's directorial debut (A Single Man) and then he won the Best Actor prize for The King's Speech in the following year. Now, he's contending for his third Oscar nom by playing a victim from World War II's "Death Railway" who sets out to find the responsible for his torture, being directed by Jonathan Teplitzky (2011's Burning Man's director in his first "Hollywood production") and sharing the screen with the amazing Nicole Kidman. So, what can go wrong? Well, Firth is a "recent" winner, so voters may tend to think like "he doesn't need it", but the major risk is The Railway Man not being critically and/or commercially well-received: the plot sounds a bit "too melodramatic" and it may not find a balance under the wrong direction. I guess Firsth is a risky contender (specially this early), but he has the chops and this is the most promising role since his Oscar win.
6. Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis
Born: January 5, 1980 - Guatemala
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
This man saved Sucker-Punch from being "unwatchable" (man, he was simply scene-stealing) and managed to shine alongside Ryan Gosling and Carey Mulligan in Nicolas Winding Refn's Drive, so it will be interesting seeing him under the Coen bros direction... Inside Llewyn Davis is one of my most antecipated movies of the year, so I've big hopes around the movie and around Oscar Isaac: judging by the trailer it seems to be an interesting movie with an interesting central character. Coen bros are one of those AMPAS' darlings... so, Isaac will be under the radar during awards season and Oscar campaign, for sure.
7. Chiwetel Ejiofor for Twelve Years a Slave
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
This man saved Sucker-Punch from being "unwatchable" (man, he was simply scene-stealing) and managed to shine alongside Ryan Gosling and Carey Mulligan in Nicolas Winding Refn's Drive, so it will be interesting seeing him under the Coen bros direction... Inside Llewyn Davis is one of my most antecipated movies of the year, so I've big hopes around the movie and around Oscar Isaac: judging by the trailer it seems to be an interesting movie with an interesting central character. Coen bros are one of those AMPAS' darlings... so, Isaac will be under the radar during awards season and Oscar campaign, for sure.
7. Chiwetel Ejiofor for Twelve Years a Slave
Born: July 10, 1977 - Forest Gate, London, England, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
You know his face and you know you know this man. Ejiofor most notable performances were his turns in Dirty Pretty Things and Kinky Boots, but he also appeared in Love Actually, Melinda and Melinda, Serenity, Children of Men, American Gangster or 2012, but it seems his big break is coming with Steve McQueen's Twelve Years a Slave. After the bravura leading performances of Fassbender in Hunger and Shame, Ejiofor promises to deliver the next big central performance of a McQueen movie. This actors showed he has real talent in Dirty Pretty Things: I guess McQueen will use it! An Oscar nom may happen if the movie reveals Oscar-friendly enough (which promises to be the case).
8. Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Born: June 4, 1936 - Chicago, Illinois, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1979 - Best Supporting Actor for Coming Home (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
It seems Dern appeared in last year's Best Picture nominee Django Unchained (I don't remeber him, actually), but aside from Coming Home and Monster, I don't know who Dern is, which makes me wonder about his Oscar chances: there's no superstar factor here, so it will be "all about the performance itself"! Nebraska is directed by Alexander Payne, a man who always pulls big performances from its actors (Witherspoon in Election, Nicholson and Bates in About Schmidt, every actor and actress in Sideways and Clooney and Woodley in The Descendants), so I guess an Oscar nomination may actually happen...
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
You know his face and you know you know this man. Ejiofor most notable performances were his turns in Dirty Pretty Things and Kinky Boots, but he also appeared in Love Actually, Melinda and Melinda, Serenity, Children of Men, American Gangster or 2012, but it seems his big break is coming with Steve McQueen's Twelve Years a Slave. After the bravura leading performances of Fassbender in Hunger and Shame, Ejiofor promises to deliver the next big central performance of a McQueen movie. This actors showed he has real talent in Dirty Pretty Things: I guess McQueen will use it! An Oscar nom may happen if the movie reveals Oscar-friendly enough (which promises to be the case).
8. Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Born: June 4, 1936 - Chicago, Illinois, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1979 - Best Supporting Actor for Coming Home (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
It seems Dern appeared in last year's Best Picture nominee Django Unchained (I don't remeber him, actually), but aside from Coming Home and Monster, I don't know who Dern is, which makes me wonder about his Oscar chances: there's no superstar factor here, so it will be "all about the performance itself"! Nebraska is directed by Alexander Payne, a man who always pulls big performances from its actors (Witherspoon in Election, Nicholson and Bates in About Schmidt, every actor and actress in Sideways and Clooney and Woodley in The Descendants), so I guess an Oscar nomination may actually happen...
9. Benedict Cumberbatch for The Fifth Estate
Born: July 19, 1976 - London, England, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Julian Assange is one of the most controversial/interesting figures of our century and Cumberbatch will portray him in Bill Condon's The Fifth Estate. While you can blame Condon for the atrocious Twilight: Breaking Dawn movies, you can praise him for Kinsey and Dreamgirls, both Oscar nominated movies. Saying "Twilight's director will do a movie about WikiLeaks" sounds like a joke, I can see huge potential in the material. The Academy loves portrays of controversial figures and while Condon is no David Fincher (who directed The Social Network), but I believe in Condon previous works and in Cumberbatch's talent.
10. Christian Bale for American Hustle
Born: January 30, 1974 - Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, Wales, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2011 - Best Supporting Actor for The Fighter (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1987 - Empire of the Sun; 2000 - American Psycho; 2004 - The Machinist
Bale started acting and impressing when he was a little kid, but he needed David O. Russell in order to get his first Oscar nomination and win for The Fighter. It's the second time Bale and O. Russell work together and there's some expectations around this second collaboration: the movie itself is gaining strong early Oscar buzz and the cast members are no exception. Bale plays a con artist who is forced to assist the FBI, a role that sounds "nice", but in the hands of Russell and Bale it may turn into gold (Russell is great with actors and Bale is a good actor).
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2011 - Best Supporting Actor for The Fighter (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1987 - Empire of the Sun; 2000 - American Psycho; 2004 - The Machinist
Bale started acting and impressing when he was a little kid, but he needed David O. Russell in order to get his first Oscar nomination and win for The Fighter. It's the second time Bale and O. Russell work together and there's some expectations around this second collaboration: the movie itself is gaining strong early Oscar buzz and the cast members are no exception. Bale plays a con artist who is forced to assist the FBI, a role that sounds "nice", but in the hands of Russell and Bale it may turn into gold (Russell is great with actors and Bale is a good actor).
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1.
Michael Fassbender for Twelve Years a Slave
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Hunger; 2011 - Shame; 2012 - Prometheus;
One of the most exciting actors of the new decade, Fassbender seduced critics and audiences with amazing turns in Hunger, Inglorious Basterds, Fish Tank, Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method, Shame and Prometheus. So, why isn't he an Oscar nominee already? Well, I really don't know. After his performance in Shame being snubed, he shined as David in Prometheus and was cast in several high-profile Oscary projects, being his third collaboration with Steve McQueen, the most promising one. In Twelve Years a Slave, Fassbender plays Edwin Epps, a "repulsive and coarse" cotton plantation owner devoid of any redeeming qualities: sounds cruel! The Academy loves a good villain and Fassbender is a fantastic actor, who acts raw and constructs multi-dimensional characters... I believe he'll impress, specially considering Steve McQueen can always pull from-another-world performances from this man.
2.
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyer's Club
Born: December 26, 1971 - Bossier City, Louisiana, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2000 - Requiem for a Dream
If you have seen Girl, Interrupted, Darren Aronofsky's Requiem for a Dream, Chapter 27 or Mr. Nobody you know 30 Seconds to Mars' lead vocalist is a gifted actor and he has what it takes in order to become an Academy Award nominated actor. Known for his dedication to acting roles (losing and gaining pounds in order to play realistically his parts), it seems he has another acting challenge by portraying a HIV positive transsexual woman in Dallas Buyer's Club. HIV + transsexual sounds just like an Oscar-screaming combination... The movie may not be as well-received as it may be necessary in order to generate instant Oscar buzz, but I believe the McConaughey&Leto duo will make the movie worthy enough and if they receive "they carry the movie" kind of reviews, I see good Oscar prospects for Leto. More than a nod, this role seems juicy enough for a win.
3.
Tony Danza for Don Jon
Born: April 21, 1951 - Brooklyn, New York City, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Well known for his praised performance as Tony Micelli in Who's the Boss? TV series, Tony Danza didn't act for years until the day Joseph Gordon-Levitt cast him as Jon Sr. in his directorial debut Don Jon. The result? According to the critics, the result is hilarious! Danza is living what seems to be a raved career comeback and you know... the AMPAS loves an actor's "comeback story" (like Mickey Rourke who almost won Best Actor for his turn in The Wrestler). The movie was a Sundace hit, it got praised during Berlin Film Festival and the same happened during SXSW, but I guess Danza's major problem is the movie itself: the porn/masturbation subject. Oscar voters didn't go for the exquisite Shame and Fassbender became the victim of one of the ugliest snubs in years, so will the Academy deny Oscar recognition to Don Jon? Well, reviews say it isn't as raw and "sick" as Steve McQueen's Shame and a comedic turn between the nominees seems to be always welcome by most, specially in the supporting acting categories, so... there's hope for Danza.
4.
Ryan Gosling for The Place Beyond the Pines
Born: November 12, 1980 - London, Ontario, Canada
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2007 - Best Actor for Half Nelson (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2007 - Lars and the Real Girl; 2010 - Blue Valentine; 2011 - Drive; 2011 - The Ides of March
The Place Beyond the Pines made a huge impression in Toronto International Film Festival's last edition and Ryan Gosling amazed critics and audiences. In his second collaboration with Derek Cianfrance (director of Blue Valentine), the actor plays a motorcycle stunt rider (who turns to robbing banks as a way to provide for his lover and their newborn child), adding another ashtonishing performance to his CV, but will he get an Oscar nomination this year or will the Academy snub him once again? Well, personally I'm tired of seeing Mr. Gosling not getting the second Oscar nod he's overdue for (after amazing Oscary performances in acclaimed movies like Lars and the Real Girl, Blue Valentine, Drive or The Ides of March). Reviews say he's only in one third of the movie, but he owns the screen everytime he's in it, so maybe a scene-stealing appearance will benefit him (awards love scene-stealers) and since he became an extremely popular sex symbol, I guess he may actually have a chance. The only problem is the movie's early release (last week).
5.
Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher
Born: November 22, 1967 - Kenosha, Wisconsin, USA (Ruffalo); April 26, 1980 - Cullman, Alabama, USA (Tatum)
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2011 - Best Supporting Actor for The Kids Are All Right (nom) (Ruffalo); none (Tatum)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2000 - You Can Count on Me (Ruffalo); none (Tatum)
Which one is the best part? The man who's killed or the brother who deals with his brother's death? Ruffalo suffered a huge physical transformation for this part and the AMPAS loves when an actor takes his job really seriously and since he's still living the success of The Avengers, it seems the perfect opportunity to give him his second Oscar nomination (specially considering he should be a two-times Oscar nominee if the Academy didn't snub him for his amazing performance in 2000's You Can Count on Me). Then there's Tatumm who had a rockin' 2012, proving the world is more that just "a body to hire" - he's an actor - and starring Bennett Miller's Foxcatcher may give him an Oscary opportunity to estabilish himself as a "serious actor". In fact, Bennett Miller only directed two feature films, but each one got two Oscar nominations in acting categories and I truly believe Foxcatcher has all the elements in order to provide Oscar noms to the actors involved. My question is: will both Tatum and Ruffalo get recognized? Well, it's possible, since both have the chops (maybe Ruffalo is ahead in the acting talent department, but well...) and there are no detailed information about both roles. So, in case of doubts, both are in the exact same situation in the Oscar prospects subject.
7. Jeremy Renner for American Hustle
Born: January 7, 1971 - Modesto, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2010 - Best Actor for The Hurt Locker (nom); 2011 - Best Supporting Actor for The Town (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
David O. Russell always pulls great performances from his actors and actresses (his last 2 movies got a total of 7 Oscar nominations in acting categories), so there's something really Oscar buzzy about having Jeremy Renner playing mayor Angelo Errichetti. Renner is an extremely charismatic actor and his acting performances are always very raw, so a third Oscar nomination is likely to happen if Abscam Project gets the same amount of praise The Fighter or Silver Linings Playbook got. Why isn't Renner in my first 5 Best Supporting Actor contenders? Because little is known about this movie and American Hustle is composed by an all-star ensemble cast, so you don't know who's going to shine brighter - internal competition factor.
8. Daniel Brühl for The Fifth Estate
Born: June 16, 1978 - Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
If you watched Good Bye Lenin! (2003) you certainly know Daniel Brühl - his fantastic performance in that movie is unforgettable. Playing Daniel Domscheit-Berg, colleague and early-supporter of Julian Assange, The Fifth Estate shows how Berg-Assange friendship changed with the foundation of WikiLeaks website. It may sound a bit like The Social Network, but we can't deny the potential of this juicy material. While Bill Condon is no David Fincher, he directed the Oscar nominated 2004's Kinsey and 2006's Dreamgirls (and he also directed those Razzie caliber Twilight: Breaking Dawn movies... yuh!). Little is known about The Fifth Estate, but if the movie is solid enough in order to survive comparisions with "the Facebook movie", I guess Brühl may become into a serious Oscar contender - he's talented enough for that!
Born: June 16, 1978 - Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
If you watched Good Bye Lenin! (2003) you certainly know Daniel Brühl - his fantastic performance in that movie is unforgettable. Playing Daniel Domscheit-Berg, colleague and early-supporter of Julian Assange, The Fifth Estate shows how Berg-Assange friendship changed with the foundation of WikiLeaks website. It may sound a bit like The Social Network, but we can't deny the potential of this juicy material. While Bill Condon is no David Fincher, he directed the Oscar nominated 2004's Kinsey and 2006's Dreamgirls (and he also directed those Razzie caliber Twilight: Breaking Dawn movies... yuh!). Little is known about The Fifth Estate, but if the movie is solid enough in order to survive comparisions with "the Facebook movie", I guess Brühl may become into a serious Oscar contender - he's talented enough for that!
9. Josh Brolin for Labor Day
Born: February 12, 1968 - Los Angeles, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2009 - Best Supporting Actor for Milk (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Leading or supporting role? Here's my big question about Josh Brolin's part in Jason Reitman's Labor Day. He plays a man who kidnaps a woman and her son and they end up having a relationship over the five days that he’s with them - sounds juicy, right? Well, Reitman is great with actors (I'm still thinking about Charlize Theron's snub for her amazing/hilarious turn in Young Adult) and I believe Brolin will shine under his direction, but my biggest concern here is: Labor Day sounds like a much more dramatic/darker movie than Reitman's previous features, so, will the Academy like his work out of his "confort zone"? And there's another thing: will Winslet steal the whole movie?
Born: February 12, 1968 - Los Angeles, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2009 - Best Supporting Actor for Milk (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Leading or supporting role? Here's my big question about Josh Brolin's part in Jason Reitman's Labor Day. He plays a man who kidnaps a woman and her son and they end up having a relationship over the five days that he’s with them - sounds juicy, right? Well, Reitman is great with actors (I'm still thinking about Charlize Theron's snub for her amazing/hilarious turn in Young Adult) and I believe Brolin will shine under his direction, but my biggest concern here is: Labor Day sounds like a much more dramatic/darker movie than Reitman's previous features, so, will the Academy like his work out of his "confort zone"? And there's another thing: will Winslet steal the whole movie?
10. Javier Bardem for The Counselor
Born: March 1, 1969 - Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2001 - Best Actor for Before Night Falls (nom); 2008 - Best Supporting Actor for No Country For Old Men (win); 2011 - Best Actor for Biutiful (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2002 - Mondays in the Sun; 2004 - The Sea Inside; 2012 - Skyfall
Some reports say he plays the villain in Ridley Scott's The Counselour and everybody knows he can create a delicious bad guy (just watch No Country For Old Man and Skyfall), and he's sharing the screen with the amazing Michael Fassbender and... well... Cameron Diaz in a memorable role according to some people. While I've no doubts about Bardem's talent (for me, he's one of the best actors working today), I'm afraid the AMPAS might not buy him as a "bad man" anymore or that his co-stars will get a much more screen-time (since they are popular and commercial Hollywood faces). The Counselor promises to be one of the best movies Scott directed in the last decade, but will it have enough screen-time in order to give Fassbender, Diaz, Cruz, Pitt and Bardem time to shine?
Born: March 1, 1969 - Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2001 - Best Actor for Before Night Falls (nom); 2008 - Best Supporting Actor for No Country For Old Men (win); 2011 - Best Actor for Biutiful (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2002 - Mondays in the Sun; 2004 - The Sea Inside; 2012 - Skyfall
Some reports say he plays the villain in Ridley Scott's The Counselour and everybody knows he can create a delicious bad guy (just watch No Country For Old Man and Skyfall), and he's sharing the screen with the amazing Michael Fassbender and... well... Cameron Diaz in a memorable role according to some people. While I've no doubts about Bardem's talent (for me, he's one of the best actors working today), I'm afraid the AMPAS might not buy him as a "bad man" anymore or that his co-stars will get a much more screen-time (since they are popular and commercial Hollywood faces). The Counselor promises to be one of the best movies Scott directed in the last decade, but will it have enough screen-time in order to give Fassbender, Diaz, Cruz, Pitt and Bardem time to shine?
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