Academy Awards 2017 nominees predictions: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor & Best Supporting Actress - PART 1

• BEST ACTOR

Everything seems defined at Best Actor category, but only God knows (and Oscar experts who make their bets every year) how things can change during and after awards season. Right now, Casey Affleck seems a sure nominee in this category for his high-class acting in Manchester by the Sea, while Denzel Washington is also a top contender for the cinematic adaptation of the play Fences, given how meaty his part is and the fact he won a Tony Award for playing this same character. Ryan Gosling benefits from La La Land hot Best Picture buzz and from being overdue for his second Oscar nod after remarkable performances in movies like Lars and the Real Girl, Blue Valentine or The Ides of March, and while AMPAS doesn't go along with a musical's leading man, truth is Gosling is at his most charming ever and critics went crazy about his performance, so, we can count with him in too (but I've to admit he fits the type of "shocking snub" when it comes to "The Day"). Hanks is remarkable in Eastwood's Sully, but he has been losing heat during last month and the same could be said about Edgerton (contending for his work in Jeff Nichols' Loving) - both man are vulnerable to the threat of actors from major Best Picture contenders, but they still very likely to get the nod at this point of the awards season. If Silence turns into more than just a Scorsese ghost during this awards season, I can see things happening for Andrew Garfield who already is under the radar for his performance in Hacksaw Ridge for which he has already collected critical praise - or could he miss a nod due to vote spliting between his work in Silence and Hacksaw Ridge? Gyllenhaal is the star of Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals and he's overdue for a second nod after Brokeback Mountain's and since I see Nocturnal Animals has the major Oscar competitor no one's paying attention, I believe Gyllenhaal will surprise! Bridges is a legend and he did amazing in Hell or High Water and Mortensen might also get a nom under a promise of career critical comeback since he's at his most heartfelt ever in Captain Fantastic. I've some doubts about Dev Patel's chances, but Lion's critical reception surprised me and it is said he delivers a very sophisticated central performance...

1. Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington for Fences
3. Ryan Gosling for La La Land
4. Tom Hanks for Sully
5. Joel Edgerton for Loving
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6. Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge | Silence
7. Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals
8. Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
9. Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
10. Dev Patel for Lion

• BEST ACTRESS

One of the most competitive Oscar races this year, Best Actress field is full of memorable performances from both estabilished names in film industry and some living legends. Benning, Portman and the young Emma Stone seem locks in this category, with critical acclaimed acting turns in some of the best reviewed movies of the year (while 20th Century Women is no major competitor in Best Picture unlike Jackie and La La Land, it is one of the most beloved movies of the film festival circuit). Highlights for Loving's star Ruth Negga, the newcomer of this race who made a huge impression in Cannes with such a brilliant performance that it managed to keep her buzz hot from May to these days and while she's no lock, she seems a better bet than Chastain (who seems to be great in Miss Sloane in the way only she can be, but the movie has some too mainstream beats). Amy Adams and Beckinsale both did great in movies I can see getting unexpected Oscar passion and Huppert is mesmerizing in Elle (and the AMPAS has been in a mood that benefits French-language performances from leading ladies and Huppert is a major name in France and in European cinema in general), but competition is really strong this year, so they don't reach my early TOP 5. It would be unwise not to predict Meryl Streep for being so good being so bad in Florence and Ugarte just impressed me a lot in Almodovar's Julieta and I assume her as my dark horse - she's simply outstanding, guys!

1. Annette Bening for 20th Century Women
2. Natalie Portman for Jackie
3. Emma Stone for La La Land
4. Ruth Negga for Loving
5. Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane
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6. Amy Adams for Arrival
7. Kate Beckinsale for Love & Friendship
8. Isabelle Huppert for Elle
9. Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Adriana Ugarte for Julieta

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I would call the most interesting Oscar race due to the quality of its contenders' performances. Mahershala Ali shines bright in Moonlight, emerging as the movie's most moving and major contender for the Best Supporting Actor race. Then we have Hugh Grant who benefits from a huge category fraud since he's clearly the male lead in Florence Foster Jenkins, but category fraud apart, he's delicious to watch in Florence and now the AMPAS has a key opportunity to apologize him for his snub for Four Weddings and a Funeral (1994). Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor-Johnson both come from Nocturnal Animals with two very different but very showy performances that called a lot of attentions during Venice - but while Aaron Taylor-Johnson delivers the most electric and vibrant performance of the two, it is Shannon who has better chances of Oscar recognition thanks to his "serious actor" status Taylor-Johnson doesn't have (yet!). Lucas Hedges comes side-by-side to Mr. Taylor-Johnson with a award-worthy performance but with Oscar chances spoiled by his youth. The AMPAS likes young women better than young men, but Hedges really shines and more than holds himself against Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea and having him (and Taylor-Johnson) in my TOP 5 is having faith in the Academy. Stephen Henderson has already won a Tony Award for the exact same role he is playing in Denzel Washington's adaptation of Fences (for its Broadway production) and he really has a key role in the plot that will give him enough space to shine, for sure (and I can see him stealing Hedges' seat in the final five easily). Chris Pine delivers the best performance of his career so far in Hell or High Water and I believe he will compete in Best Supporting under another big category fraud (he's clearly a leading, but since he comes after Jeff Bridges in the movie credits he can easily be campaigned "supporting") and I see him getting some prizes home - maybe I should put him in the five first spots.... but lets wait for awards season! Alden Ehrenreich steals the show in Hail, Caesar! in one of the most memorable breakthrough performances of the year that might turn into an Oscar nominated one, since the AMPAS often goes crazy for the Coen brothers' movies (and this one's about Hollywood). Spall was close to Oscar recognition for Mr. Turner and he's back to the Oscar talking for his nice work in Holocaust-themed Denial, while I have high hopes around Asano in Silence (but I have to wait for Scorsese in order to put him higher in my predictions). I though about Peter Sarsgaard for Jackie, but the movie belongs to Natalie Portman so I did not included him. 

1. Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
2. Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals
4. Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals
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6. Stephen Henderson for Fences
7. Chris Pine for Hell or High Water
8. Alden Ehrenreich for Hail, Caesar!
9. Timothy Spall for Denial
10. Tadanobu Asano for Silence

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The only thing sure about Best Supporting Actress race is: "Michelle Williams is a lock and Viola Davis is contending for a win" - all the rest is a question point... and I love it! It was announced that Viola Davis submitted to Best Supporting Actress for Fences and given how juicy the material around her part is, she's a lock in this category for sure (let's just wait to see if the movie is good enough as a whole). Since Sundance people talk about Michelle Williams Oscar prospects for 2017's Academy Awards thanks to her turn in Manchester by the Sea, the critical darling of Sundance that never lost its heat mostly thanks to the hot reception it received during film festival circuit - and, in fact, Williams does a fantastic job with the small material that is given to her, she is, in fact, the best true supporting female performance of the year I've seen so far. Naomie Harris is under some Oscar buzz too for Moonlight and she has nice chances due to the movie's Best Picture buzz and last year's polemics around the lack of black Oscar nominees - and she's remarkable, just to say. Greta Gerwig and Elle Fanning both shine in 20th Century Women for different reasons, but both have drama and both have never been so luminous before, delivering two kind of performances that often please the AMPAS. But let's not forget that being loved by the media doesn't mean it will translate into love from the Oscar voters. Both Gerwig and Fanning will need to build solid pre-Oscar award seasons in order to have chances in getting their first Oscar nomination. Kidman and Nyong'O are back to Oscar talk with full-form potent heartfelt moms' roles and if Kidman benefits from the strange yet silent buzz around Lion, Lupita has Disney behind her announcing they will campaign for the critical acclaimed and emotionally honest Queen of Katwe. Kristen Stewart truly shines under the direction of Woody Allen and we all know Woody Allen directed actresses often get Oscar nominations. Julianne Moore is amazing in Maggie's Plan, but it seems no one payed attention to her greatness, but if indie award go for her, I can see her turning into a major contender. And if the AMPAS really goes for Hail, Caesar!, Scarlett Johansson might have a chance since she's overdue for her first Oscar nom and she steals the only two scenes she's in - she might not deserve this recognition, but I can see her as one of those surprise nominees at the nominations announcement morning.

1. Viola Davis for Fences
2. Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomie Harris for Moonlight
4. Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women
5. Elle Fanning for 20th Century Women
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6. Nicole Kidman for Lion
7. Lupita Nyong'O for Queen of Katwe
8. Kristen Stewart for Café Society
9. Julianne Moore for Maggie's Plan
10. Scarlett Johansson for Hail, Caesar!

A distinguished note...Newcomer Trevante Rhodes, the star of the last third of the amazing Moonlight, might also have something to say during this award season, specially when he turns to be The Heart and Soul of Moonlight and he is on fire these days also because of being in Westworld TV series (such a winning way to start your career, don't you think?). My question is: will he be placed as leading actor or supporting actor? Theory says he's only in one third of Moonlight, so he goes supporting, but it happens he plays the adult version of the main character... Thoughts? From my point of view I would just get him decent recognition no matter in which category. Such a brilliant breakthrough performance!