Academy Awards 2017 nominees predictions: Best Picture

• BEST PICTURE

The top category of the Academy Awards, is getting really interesting. The fun of trying to predict the nominees shortlist this soon is that there are no locks except La La Land... but Jackie is close to "locked" status, not only because of the bravura performance of its leading lady, but mostly because of the quality cinema itself and because of Pablo Larraín who benefits from Neruda's Best Foreign Picture buzz. And then we have the Andrew Garfield double golden picture: the Mel Gibson's war epic Hacksaw Ridge and Scorsese's Silence, both benefiting from their directors Oscar history and from early raves (Hacksaw) and huge award anticipation around the yet unseen Silence. Then there's this fall season film festival sensation, Moonlight, a beautifully shot three act piece of cinema about being a gay man in a black community - an independent feature that promises to make some waves during awards season with a splendid ensemble cast that only benefits Barry Jenkins' masterpiece. Manchester by the Sea is one of the favorites for Best Picture race, gaining traction since it screened at Sundance and it is likely to get enough #1 votes in Best Picture ballot in order to manage to get a seat between the nominees. And we have the famous story of Loving Vs Virginia, about interracial marriage at a time it was illegal to love someone who has a darker skin, with an enchanting breakthrough performance by Ruth Negga and it would be a clever choice for those AMPAS members who want to avoid the whitewash surrounding Oscars (besides the fact Loving is a damn great down to earth movie!). The Jungle Book was a huge box-office hit both in US and worldwide in general and one of the best well-reviewed movies of the year, with outstanding works in sound and visual effects departments, turning to be an amazing cinematic experience that will please fans of "big budget cinema" and Oscar voters who pay attention to technical categories. And then we have Amy Adams in Venice Film Festival's sensation - Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals - a feature film of excellence in narrative, style and pace, made for art lovers that will likely seduce a big bunch of AMPAS members, while I've some doubts about if it is going to seduce "ENOUGH" AMPAS members. And Amy strikes again in Denis Villeneuve directed sci-fi drama Arrival, another technical marvel leaded by an amazing commanding performance by Amy that will appeal to some voters (but it will compete with The Jungle Book for technological marvel Best Picture spot).

Fences is remained to be seen, but while it will work as an acting showcase for its starts (Denzel Washington and Viola Davis) and the source material is great, it needs to be excellent - and previous Washington directed movies were "just fine". Lion is getting better reviews than I expected and it can have some Best Picture hopes for a nod, for sure, but I still not seeing this one as a sell for AMPAS members. Jeff Bridges and Chris Pine shine together in Hell or High Water, a sleeper hit and a marvelous movie that can drain some votes if it manages to be promoted properly. Nate Parker words hurted Birth of a Nation Oscar hopes really bad, but we can't count an early heavy contender out before the beginning of awards season and Elle Fanning and Greta Gerwig charm in 20th Century Women while Annette Bening shines bright, but I don't see this one getting a Best Picture nod at all (it is a true acting showcase for its actors and for a heartfelt honest screenplay).

I predict 8 Best Picture nominees this year!

1. La La Land

2. Jackie

3. Hacksaw Ridge

4. Silence
5. Moonlight

6. Manchester by the Sea
7. Loving
8. The Jungle Book
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9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Arrival

11. Fences
12. Lion

13. Hell or High Water

14. Birth of a Nation

15. 20th Century Women