Academy Awards 2019, BEST ACTRESS - The Contenders

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE

• Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Barry Jenkins has already developed his follow-up to Best Picture-winning Moonlight, the screen adaptation of If Beale Street Could Talk. The plot centers around a young Harlem girl named Clementine "Tish" Rivers, who seeks to free her falsely imprisoned fiancé and Jenkins casted the almost-newcomer Kiki Layne (she starred some short films according to her IMDb profile). Young and pretty (and black), Layne fits today's AMPAS standards for a first-time nominee. Plus, If Beale Street Could Talk is getting strong early Best Picture buzz, but I guess we'll have to wait in order to state if Barry Jenkins' upcoming movie honors Moonlight. Can she be this year's Gabourey Sidibe or Ruth Negga? The AMPAS is trying to avoid another #OscarSoWhite trend and if you remember, last Oscar nominees shortlist in acting featured 4 black actors/actresses (Kaluuya, Washington, Spencer and Mary J. Blidge) and Kiki Layne might be the best "black contender" in the Best Actress field (considering Viola Davis goes supporting for Widows).

CAREER COMEBACK

• Michelle Pfeiffer, Where Is Kyra?

One of the most relevant actresses during the 80's and the 90's, "Michelle Pfeiffer" is a name that translates into something like "beauty and talent on-screen". After a semi-retirement during the 2000's where the only major works where White Oleander (2001), Hairspray (2007) and Chéri (2009), Pfeiffer was back last year with TV-movie The Wizard of Lies (for which she scored her first Emmy nomination), Murder On the Orient Express (a box-office success in spite of average reviews) and the independent production Where Is Kyra?, which was presented at 2017's Sundance Film Festival but it only got a April 2018 limited release. In Kyra, Pfeiffer plays a fragile woman who lost her job and as to survive with her mother's income. Critics raved her performance, saying she's some kind of "remarkable" and naming Kyra her best performance in years. The AMPAS love career resurgence tales and Pfeiffer has previous Oscar love (3 nominations). So, if the movie manages to be promoted more as a Michelle Pfeiffer vehicle and less as a indie film, a Best Actress nomination can happen.

CELEBRATED ACTRESS OVERDUE FOR A FIRST OSCAR NOM

• Scarlett Johansson, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project

After Horse Whisperer (1998), Ghost World (2001), Lost In Translation (2003), Girl With a Pearl Earring (2003), A Love Song for Bobby Long (2004), Match Point (2005), Don Jon (2013), Her (2013) and Under the Skin (2014), Scarlett Johansson still has no Academy Award nomination. An impressive fact considering she is one of the biggest movie stars these days. With the critical raved box-office successes of Marvel Cinematic Universe, strong performances in independent productions and fine work in ensemble pieces, it's time to give Scarlett Johansson her first Oscar nomination. This year she has a part in the Berlin Film Festival hit Isle of Dogs by Wes Anderson, the it's-gonna-be-a-box-office-monster The Avengers: Infinity War and she has the leading role in Noah Baumbach's upcoming yet untitled film. Baumbach is known for being generous for his leading actors and he can write fascinating parts (remember The Squid and the Whale, Greenberg, Frances Ha or The Meyerowitz Stories?). Johansson shows her very best in character-centered small productions, so it is possible she delivers her first Oscar nominated performance this year. Netflix distribution might not help, but Mudbound did great in last Oscars edition, so I guess it's not a huge deal anymore.

FRESH FROM OSCAR LOVE

• Saoirse Ronan, On Chesil Beach OR Mary Queen of Scots

She's fresh from all the buzz she got for her performance in Lady Bird. And guess what...? She can be back to Oscar nominees shortlist once again next edition. For 2018, Saoirse Ronan stars The Seagull (looks fine, but not that Oscary to me) and she stars On Chesil Beach and Mary Queen of Scots. While word on Mary Queen of Scots remains silent, On Chesil Beach had its world premiere at 2017 TIFF and reactions to Ronan's performance were stellar - it seems she's at the top of her game in that one, once again. But I believe if Mary Queen of Scots is any good, most of the attentions will go for the royalty period piece - in fact, no one has ever portrayed Mary Stuart in a really effective way and last attempts to tell her story on-screen were unsuccessful. AMPAS loves a good royalty drama and Mary Queen of Scots' story is a juicy one. And I can see no better choice to play the beautiful queen who threatened Queen Elizabeth I of England's power!  I'm sure Ronan will be terrific, so I'm hoping the movie itself will be terrific as well!


HEIR TO MERYL STREEP'S THRONE

• Cate Blanchett, Where'd You Go, Bernardette

One of the best actresses ever (for sure) and one of the most respected names in Hollywood, not including Cate Blanchett in Academy Awards nominees predictions is like betting against one more Oscar nom for Meryl Streep! This year, Blanchett seems to have the juicy role of Bernardette Fox, an anxiety-ridden mother that disappears, in Richard Linklater's upcoming adaptation of Where'd You Go, Bernardette. Drama & anxiety were also part of the winning performance of Blanchett in Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine some years ago and since Linklater is good with actors, an Oscar nomination would feel just "natural"! So, let's wait and see how Bernardette is going to be received by both critics and audiences, because let's not forget Last Flag Flying was a perfect Oscar contender on paper but it didn't achieve its full award potential.

JUST A DIVA DOING GREAT IN COMEDY

• Charlize Theron, Tully

More than an actress, Charlize Theron is a star. Her last Oscar nomination was back in 2006 for her performance in North Country (2005) and since then people have been asking when will she get the #3? Her chances looked nice for her work in Young Adult, but it didn't happen. Then Mad Max: Fury Road offered another chance, but it didn't happen once again. This year, she stars another Jason Reitman movie - Tully - and first reviews from Sundance Film Festival were kind for the leading actress and for the movie itself. I know it is a comedy and the AMPAS tends to recognize dramatic performances more, but Theron is a Hollywood diva and, according to critics, she shows a lot of depht as a mother on the verge of a nervous breakdown who bounds with a nanny. Reitman's movies often feature great roles (Thank You For Smoking, Juno, Up in the Air, Young Adult and even Labor Day was kind to Kate Winslet), so I believe we'll hear about Theron and Tully during awards season.

RESPECT THE CHARACTER ACTRESSES

• Melissa Leo, Furlough

Melissa Leo is already an Oscar winner (remember her stellar performance in The Fighter?), but it seems audiences / indie cinema lovers are willing to campaign for a 3rd Oscar nomination for her. After some rave reviews and early award buzz for last year's The Novitiate (God, she was really good in that one), Leo seems to be back to award talk with the upcoming comedy-drama Furlough. Some early word of mouth says she's amazing in this one! And while some might say it will be just another independent production with good actors, I warn you about this: Laurie Collyer is the director. In case you aren't familiar with Collyer, I remind you she's the director of Sherrybaby (2006), the movie that features Maggie Gyllenhaal's best performance ever! So, given Leo's talent, the director and the movie's kind of story (bad mom, redemption story)... it smells so "Oscar bait"!

QUEEN OF COMEDY GONE DRAMA

• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Better known for her comedic ventures on-screen, Melissa McCarthy is a comedic genius, but she impresses in Can You Ever Forgive Me? movie trailer - a dramatic turn with a spice of comedy. In Can You Ever Forgive Me?, McCarthy plays Lee Israel, a bestselling celebrity biographer who's no longer able to get published because she has fallen out of step with current tastes, so she becomes a literary forger and a thief. While the synopsis might show a comedic tone, truth is the trailer shows a down-to-earth drama. Considering McCarthy is a comedic goddess, exploring the drama field usually attracts award attention. The AMPAS loves when an actor goes outside his/her confort zone and so it seems in Can You Ever Forgive Me? (the cases of Sandra Bullock, Steve Carell, Robin Williams, Mo'Nique or Whoopi Goldberg, for example). The Academy has already gone for McCarthy back in 2012 for the raunchy comedy Bridesmaids (2011), so it can happen a second time for a more "Oscary tone" movie.

THE STAR OF THE SUNDANCE CHAMPION

• Chloë Grace Moretz, The Miseducation of Cameron Post

The young and promising actress who impressed the world in Kick-Ass (2010), Let Me In (2010) and Hugo (2011)... Chloë Grace Moretz delivered what was considered her best performance yet in The Miseducation of Cameron Post - the top prize winner of this year's edition of Sundance Film Festival. In fact, Sundance champions do have a fair shot at the awards / Oscar season... Frozen River (2008), Precious (2009), Winter's Bone (2010) and Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012) - all these movies won the Grand Jury Prize: Dramatic and generated Best Actress Oscar nominations for their leading ladies (and if you consider 2011's Like Crazy, which featured an Oscar buzzy performance from Felicity Jones, the list adds one more). So, considering Moretz's age (she's 21), her previous fine work and the raves she got for Cameron Post, it seems to be the right time to honor her with her first Oscar nomination. But... she plays a teenage girl who forced into a gay conversion therapy center by her conservative guardians, which means she plays a lesbian.... and AMPAS loves "gay" better than "lesbian" (remember Adèle Exarchopoulos atrocious Oscar snub for Blue Is the Warmest Color?).

OTHERS

• Elsie Fisher, Eight Grade - A child actress who has been collecting raves for her performance in the coming-of-age comedy-drama Eight Grade. The movie was competing for the Grand Jury Prize - Dramatic and, currently, it scores 100% at Rotten Tomatoes. The movie's highlight? Fisher's performance! I feel she can be this year's Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project), but since she isn't THAT young, maybe she fares better than Prince during awards season!

• Carey Mulligan, Wildlife - She showed great promise with An Education (2009), Never Let Me Go (2010) and Shame (2011), but a 2nd Oscar nomination never materialized. Last year's Mudbound reminded people how great she can be and it seems she has been collecting raves since Sundance Film Festival for Wildlife. The role is said to be quite dramatic - she plays a married woman who falls in love with another man - and you know Mulligan fits the traditional description of drama actress.

• Rooney Mara, Mary Magdalene - The trailer looks great and Mara is one of the most gifted actresses working these days, but for some reason I'm always sceptical about a Biblical drama and the AMPAS doesn't go for this kind of movie in a long time. No matter what, the Academy have already showed love for Mara in a recent past, so it can happen if the movie gets good reviews.

• Elizabeth Debicki, Widows - Steve McQueen will bring some drama this year once again and it seems he gave Elizabeth Debicki the movie's leading role. She was tremendous in 2013's adaptation of The Great Gatsby, but she's almost an unknown... She'll share the screen with the great Viola Davis and Michelle Rodriguez, so is she at risk of getting "the supporting actress treatment"?