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Academy Awards 2019 nominees predictions: Best Original Screenplay & Best Adapted Screenplay (Early predictions)

  • BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
A Quiet Place is that unexpected hit that no one was really paying attention until it was released... and it's explores a sometimes monocordic cinematic genre in a truly original way and both critics and audiences loved it - the AMPAS goes for small productions turned into worldwide successes in this category. As for Backseat, Peterloo and Roma, we haven't seen the movies yet, I know, but both Mike Leigh and Cuarón got some AMPAS love in the screenplay categories in a near past, so I just will take them very seriously. Adam McKay writing won him a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar back in 2016 for The Big Short (2015), so he shouldn't be ignored too. My biggest doubt is Isle of Dogs: it is the best screenplay of the year, so far, and Wes Anderson is one of the most celebrated auteurs working today (with 3 Best Original Screenplay nominations), but sometimes it seems AMPAS members feel relutant about going for animated features in this category - hoping Isle of Dogs can make it!
A Quiet Place, Bryan Woods, Scott Beck and John Krasinski 
Backseat, Adam McKay 
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson 
Peterloo, Mike Leigh 
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

And other contenders who can go to the top spots in the Best Original Screenplay shortlist... Tully and Eight Grade aside, the other three are movies which are yet to be released and its "contender status" is based on the cinematic "pedigree" involved in the project. As for Eight Grade, it is a very down-to-earth portray of a teen life and the movie is an indie darling already (the AMPAS loves to honour small indies in the screenplay categories, remember?). And Tully... love the dialogue! And let's not forget Diablo Cody is an Oscar winner already for her screenplay for 2007's Juno.
Death and Life of John F. Donovan, Xavier Dolan 
Eight Grade, Bo Burnham 
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara 
Tully, Diablo Cody 
Untitled Noah Baumback Project, Noah Baumbach


  • BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BlacKkKlansman is the hit movie of the moment under the awards radar and even if it doesn't make to Best Picture and/or Best Director it is likely to get a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, at least - given the movie's tale of racism and the American satyre in it. As for First Man, the movie trailer made think about this one as the potential biggest Oscar player of the year and given some lines sounded nice in the trailer, I bet Best Adapted Screenplay is likely to happen (in a "go with the flow" kind of way). After the amazing Moonlight, Barry Jenkins is back with If Beale Street Could Talk... another Oscar hopeful judging by the trailer, but Beale Street has a big advantage: a mesmerizing source material! As for Love, Simon and Widows, I'm not that sure... Love, Simon's strongest feature is its honest screenplay, but Boy Erased (and The Miseducation of Cameron Post) is a more Oscar-talked movie about the same kind of subject and it will be released in order to be considered an Oscar contender: direct competition! As for Widows... I don't buy it, but this kind of movies tend to surprise me in a positive way and Gillian Flynn wrote an amazing Oscar-snubed screenplay for David Fincher's Gone Girl...!
BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott 
First Man, Josh Singer and Nicole Perlman 
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins 
Love, Simon, Elizabeth Berger & Isaac Aptaker 
Widows, Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen
A worlwide box-office hit, Black Panther might follow the same path of last year's Logan and get a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination (the writing is strong enough for sure), but we have to wait and see how Marvel / Disney will campaign Black Panther (or if they will campaign for Infinity War more). Boy Erased and The Frontrunner all look perfect contenders for this category on paper... but they remain unseen and early reactions focused more on Boy Erased's acting praise. The Miseducation of Cameron Post is this year's Sundance champion and while the lesbian movie must face the direct competition of the gay Boy Erased and Love, Simon, it has a small advantage that might be a key factor for an Oscar nod later in awards season: it is directed and written by a woman, a lesbian woman! Wildlife, Paul Dano's critically acclaimed Sundance darling seems to have enough cards to play in the acting and screenplay fields... but trying to secure acting noms for its overdue stars Mulligan and Gyllenhaal would be easier than a Screenplay nod, maybe.
Black Panther, Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole 
Boy Erased, Joel Edgerton 
The Miseducation of Cameron Post, Desiree Akhavan & Cecilia Frugiuele 
The Frontrunner, Jason Reitman Matt Bay and Jay Carson 
Wildlife, Paul Dano and Zoe Kazan

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