- BEST PICTURE
It doesn't seem the trickiest Best Picture race to predict, but this year benefits from a wide diversity of contenders - and while A Star Is Born, Roma, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book and The Favourite feel secure, I feel Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody's traction is too based on the internet and audience power the AMPAS doesn't always pays respect. If Beale Street Could Talk, A Quiet Place, The Rider, First Man, Crazy Rich Asians, Leave No Trace or Vice: all these could sweep a seat in Best Picture nominees shortlist in a certain "expected way"., while Shoplifters just sounds too delicious to be included here. And then, I don't know what to do with Mary Poppins Returns, Eight Grade or First Reformed - movies that earned a lot of traction at some point of the awards season and now they're fading, but it doesn't mean Oscar voters forgot them...
So, just check my Academy Awards 2019 Best Picture nominees predictions:
1. A STAR IS BORN
Since we're not talking about who's gonna win, I feel safe to say A Star Is Born is going to get NOMINATED for Best Picture - it's a fact. The critically acclaimed box-office hit managed key nods at the Golden Globes, BAFTA Awards, Critics' Choice Awards and seduced the guilds' awards. Plus, being able to compete against some of biggest award monsters of the season in the Best Motion Picture - Drama instead of chosing the easy path of being considered a musical and be placed in the Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical category earned A Star Is Born a lot of respect even if it ended the Globes with no big trophy in the bag besides Best Original Song. The Bradley Cooper charisma and Lady Gaga's star power, the commercial success of its songs and a beloved "classic" Hollywood story... And its one of the most emotionally satisfying movies of the year!
2. ROMA
Alfonso Cuarón's passion project and a love letter to his childhood and to the woman who raised him, Roma is as beautiful as it is emotionally ressonant, so it is easy to predict enought #1 votes for this one. Plus, some key scenes happen in a movie theatre, which can also evoque a love letter to cinema. A critics' darling and the winner of the Golden Lion at 2018's edition of Venice Film Festival, Roma's best publicity is its cinematic craft and the multiple award wins - right now it is the movie that won most awards at this point of the awards season - and being considered a frontrunner for Best Foreign Picture (MEXICO), Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing and Best Cinematography boots its Oscar prospects. And let's not forget Roma stars an indigenous actress (Yalitza Aparicio, great)... the AMPAS is in the "embracing diversity" mood!
3. BLACKKKLANSMAN
Some claimed the movie lost its buzz around September, but, for me, it was clear the AMPAS wouldn't pass this opportunity to honour Spike Lee for his respectable career and Oscar voters would want a movie "against" hate to send a political and social message. With a solid award season (Cannes Grand Prix, 4 Golden Globe nominations, 5 BAFTA Awards and Producers Guild and 3 SAG Awards noms), critical support and good box-office numbers, BlacKkKlansman is one of those film festival successes that turned into a silent Summer hit - a surprising $89.1M worldwide from a $15M budget. Fun fact: the movie also benefits from the "Washington blood" factor and from Spike Lee himself (it's a vehicle for overdue Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nods).
4. GREEN BOOK
Well, you can't vote AGAINST a movie... so, since there are as many lovers of Green Book as haters, I'm pretty confident it will get a Best Picture nomination. The big winner of the last edition of Toronto International Film Festival (which, according to Oscar trivia/history is an advantage when it comes to "how likely to get a Best Picture nomination") also happens to be a tale about an unlikely friendship in an America full of racial issues. The charismatic duo of actors and the feel good vibe of the movie make Green Book a top choice for the comedy lovers. Plus: the Golden Globe win in the Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical and the NBR Best Film win also contribute to boost its Best Picture chances.
5. THE FAVOURITE
It's a movie about female empowerment and about women in power and the trio of actresses excel!!! The gorgeous production values, the grotesque sensibility of Lanthimos, the performances, the hidden messages... The Favourite is a delicious movie for feminists and the LGBT community also seemed to embrace this one - and Olivia Colman's status as a likely Best Actress winner gives the movie a lot of publicity. Critics showed a lot of love for the movie and it got a ton of nominations at the BAFTA and the Golden Globes. It's a nasty fun period drama too good to ignore! Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone in a love triangle with no rules... how could the AMPAS pass?
6. BLACK PANTHER
Too big to ignore, specially when the Oscars ceremony had a lot of trouble last year when it comes to audiences. Having the possibility of a highly popular movie like Black Panther winning in a major category is an audiences magnet! A cultural phenomenom and a huge box-office hit (the highest grossing movie domestically and the second highest-grossing movie of the year worldwide), it managed key Golden Globe nominations, a PGA Award nod and a ton of Critics' Choice Awards nominations... so, it has enough precursor award backup in order to get that Best Picture nod - it is an highly entertaining movie full of thrills and laughs, so it is easy to predict enough #1 votes.
7. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Yes, it is a flawed movie, but I loved Bohemian Rhapsody and I can understand the enthusiasm! The beat, the nostalgia, the Rami Malek performance, underdogs turning into gods... That unexpected Golden Globe win for Best Motion Picture - Drama boosted its Best Picture chances by miles and its impressing box-office numbers also indicate how madly audiences love this movie. The guilds' awards went for the movie and it even managed that "shocking" PGA Award and SAG Award for Best Ensemble nomination - so, add 7 BAFTA Award nods and you have a major Best Picture player here. Even the most sceptical seem to enjoy the music and the central performance so... why not simply embrace Bohemian Rhapsody and admit how "guilty" you feel for being amazed by the movie?
8. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
A love story about two young lovers apart because of racial issues. Based on the novel of the same name by James Baldwin, it's a narrative masterpiece and a visual treat, with a couple of great acting performances and a sensitive directing hand. In fact, If Beale Street Could Talk isn't exactly impressive, but it manages to keep in your mind so you start loving it deeply. Most romantic (and traditional) Oscar voters will fall easily for this one and they will have no regrets about picking Beale Street as their number 1 vote... with Golden Globe support, Critics' Choice nods and a big hand of critics associations' prizes, If Beale Street Could Talk just makes sense as a Best Picture nominee.
9. A QUIET PLACE
Highly original, raved by critics and a box-office sensation (specially for a non-remake or franchise installment), A Quiet Place is one of the best movies of the year and it deserves a Best Picture nomination. Paramount keeps campaigning the movie hard (and the studio managed to get a key PGA Award nomination!). A strong contender for Best Original Screenplay, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing categories (and maybe Best Original Score or Best Editing as longshots), a Best Picture nomination might just happen thanks to the heavy campaign that seems able to remind people how great he movie is. An horror movie that elevates itself from its genre to dramatic / romantic / thriller fields... A Quiet Place might earn a noisy Best Picture nomination!
10. THE RIDER
It's not a movie that you truly love, but it is a movie you truly respect (a bit just like last year's Phantom Thread)... The Rider is a winning indie production that wasn't able to break the big precursor awards, but somehow manages to be honoured by smaller yet highly respectable organizations. A study about the American masculinity in the rodeo culture, The Rider is unforgetable once you see it. From breathtaking cinematography work, to scenes of extreme sensibility, cinematic poetry and a sense of personal amaze, The Rider is a director's movie - a superior one!
11. First Man - It was one of the biggest contender before it was released. Great technical aspects that are likely to be recognized by the AMPAS and a winning performance by Claire Foy, but people seem just not interested enough about nominating it in Best Picture.
12. Crazy Rich Asians - A huge hit. A fresh romantic-comedy. A great lesson about family values. Crazy Rich Asians is popular and good enough in order to become a surprise Best Picture nominee.
13. Leave No Trace - Alongside The Rider (and maybe Can You Ever Forgive Me?), it is the best shot a movie directed by a woman has to get a Best Picture nomination this year. An impressive 100% score at Rotten Tomatoes and a big ton of prizes during award season, it wasn't able to break the big precursor awards, but it is as good as Winter's Bone.
14. Vice - Something is not right about Vice... it has earned recognition from the guilds, but no one who saw the movie really loved it. It seems the only aspect EVERYONE admit that's truly remarkable about the movie is Christian Bale's performance and the editing work.
15. Shoplifters - Considering Roma is already a major frontrunner for a Best Picture nomination, it seems unlikely for Shoplifters to score a Best Picture nomination since I believe the AMPAS won't "waste" 2 Best Picture spots for foreign productions. But Shoplifters is the most heart wrenching movie of the year, the most bittersweet cinematic tale I've seen in years... yet, so beautiful and impossible to forget.
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