It early to start predicting Best Picture... because it is about the year's personal favorites of each Oscar voter, so it can be hard to predict. This year I divided movies in "sub-categories" for my early Best Picture predictions for the Academy Awards 2020 nominations. Those movie which are already seen and that can be in the run are ranked aside from those who remain unseen. Exception made for Toy Story 4, which is an animated feature and it can find Best Picture love or the AMPAS simply might put it aside in Best Animated Feature race only.
So, just have a look:
- ALREADY IN THE RUN
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
One of the most Oscar buzzy in this year's edition of Cannes Film Festival, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood benefits from the Quentin Tarantino factor and from the fact of being a love letter to movies and Hollywood. Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie are just some of the names of an all-star cast that's likely to draw a lot of attentions. According to critics, it is Tarantino's greatest movie since Pulp Fiction!
2. The Last Black Man in San Francisco
It got rave reviews back in Sundance and it competed for the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize (which it didn't win), but it managed to take home a Special Jury Prize and the US Dramatic Directing Award - making it a huge 2019 Sundance hit. Critics consider The Last Black Man in San Francisco as visual poetry and a major cinematic achievement... Let's see if all the love around this one converts into Oscar buzz, since some major Sundance movies can do well in the Best Picture race.
3. Avengers: Endgame
The biggest box-office sensation of the year (and "in years"), Avengers: Endgame rises above pure popcorn entertainment as a moving farewell movie of one of the most successful Marvel "sub-franchise" - Avengers. Lots of action, great visuals, huge ticket sales, praised acting performances and a big studio backing an Oscar campaign, Endgame might catch the eye of the same AMPAS members who went for Black Panther last year...!
4. Us
Jordan Peele is back with another horror gem. Not as perfect as Get Out was, Us still features a big couple of great ideas and a very nice execution. The ensemble acting is stellar, specially from Lupita Nyong'o and Elizabeth Moss... But the AMPAS tends to avoid the horror genre no matter how brilliant a movie is...! Will Oscar voters make an exception for Jordan Peele's work once again? A Best Original Screenplay nod seems likely - will it generate Best Picture buzz?
5. Rocketman
Rocketman is a very good musical biopic and its major problem about Oscar season is not its fault: it will be in the shadow of the highly overrated and highly popular Bohemian Rhapsody! A heartfelt tale of a man trying to find himself and the whole process of creation of a true artist, Rocketman is a nice balance between comedic relief, drama, music and some visual spectacle. Having Elton John himself backing the movie, promoting Taron Egerton for Best Actor and competing in a Best Original Song category gives Rocketman a certain pedigree... Will the AMPAS go for musical biopic for the second year in a row? It can happen since Oscar voters have been embracing movies about LGBT+ community.
6. The Peanut Butter Falcon
A feel-good indie with the heart and its priorities in the right place. It met huge praise in SXSW and it ended taking home Narrative Spotlight Audience Award. An emotional journey of a man with Down syndrome who runs from home in order to fulfill his dream of becoming a wrestler, The Peanut Butter Falcon is said to achieve brilliance in the directing and narrative departments, with Shia LaBeouf and Zack Gottsagen delivering great acting performances.
7. Dolor y gloria
It has been a while since Pedro Almodóvar's last big movie (I consider it to be 2006's Volver, but I can't deny The Skin I Live In was also a nice success), but judging by the reception Dolor y gloria got at this year's edition of Cannes Film Festival, Almodóvar is back in good shape. A movie about a director, his mastery and his childhood, Dolor y gloria competed for the Palme d'Or and managed to give Antonio Banderas the prize for Best Actor of Cannes Film Festival. Box-office numbers say it can be an international success. I believe it will be Spain's entry for Best Foreign Picture, so it will enter the talk for Best Picture for sure.
- WITH A LOT OF POTENTIAL
1. Harriet
2. The Irishman
3. Ford v. Ferrari
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Fair and Balanced
6. 1917
7. The Laundromat
- IF IT HONORS ITS BELOVED SOURCE MATERIAL
The Goldfinch is one of the most beloved moder novels and Little Women is literature royalty with a ton of previous media adaptations (with the 1994 film being the most awarded and famous take on this classic). The Good Liar source material might not have the same status as the ones I mentioned above, but judging by the movie trailer and the talent involved, it can surprise some Oscar folks - the leading parts look and sound juicy! And let's not forget the A-list ensemble cast involved in both The Goldfinch and Little Women (with Greta Gerwig directing the late, fresh for the Oscar love of her directorial debut Lady Bird)!
1. The Goldfinch
2. Little Women
3. The Good Liar
- NOT THE AMPAS CUP OF TEA FOR BEST PICTURE, BUT THEY'RE PART OF BELOVED FRANCHISES AND IF THE BOX-OFFICE NUMBERS IMPRESS...
The AMPAS has already nominated one of the Toy Story installements for Best Picture (Toy Story 3), so it can happen once again since Toy Story 4 seems to be getting the same amount of critical praise and massive box-office numbers! It will also compete for other categories, so buzz is expected to be high when awards season kicks off. As for the Episode IX of the Star Wars saga... well, not the AMPAS favorite in the Best Picture department, but every Star Wars movie managed to get at least 1 Oscar nomination... And I believe The Rise of Skywalker will be no different.... and with J. J. Abrams returning to the director's chair as he did for the sensational The Force Awakens, the upcoming movie is an awards promise - but I have my doubts about its chances of entering Best Picture race.
1. Toy Story 4
2. Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
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