Some new early reactions, new trailers and even some releases... I had to revise my Best Picture nominees predictions (1st ROUND), since these cinematic news changed my predictions in other categories and it wouldn't make sense with my previous Best Picture predicted nominees.
So, let's get started:
- BEST PICTURE
Just like I said in a previous post: movies who need Fall film festivals to get major buzz and get picked by a distributor are in trouble this year! That's why my picks lean toward productions that come from bigger studios, with top contender Minari being the exception. At this point, I think Netflix movies are a step ahead: Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods is an urgent movie for the #AllLivesMatter (and #BlackLivesMatter) times and it delivers a big emotional punch and social critique that feel more relevant than ever (and it got universal critical acclaim!); and David Fincher is back to Oscar race with a movie about the legal battle for Citizen Kane... Mank seems destined to major AMPAS love considering all the talent involved in the project and the tale of men fighting other men in the name of art and a passion project. Minari was the Sundance Film Festival "grand" champion, taking home the Grand Jury Prize - Dramatic (the film festival biggest prize) and the Audience Award - and it got universal acclaim! It's a more intimate pick, but it might well be promoted as the winner of the "last big film fest" of the year... and it has been a while since a Sundance movie made the final Best Picture cut (the last time was 2017's Call Me By Your Name). Next, we have Judas and the Black Messiah and Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch: movies that won't get a film festival run, yet, they look great, judging from the trailer! Judas might deal with the racial issues and the need Black community feels to change and the trailer makes it look amazing (although the director is an unknown to me, I've high hopes for this one). The French Dispatch looks beautiful (just like every Wes Anderson movie), but it also seems to tell a story about the power of art and press, the power of youth and the power of revolution - yet, it can be a social commentary deceived as a Wes Anderson movie (and a beautiful one). West Side Story is a classic and the 1961's version took home 10 Academy Awards and while I'm more cautious about this adaptation, I believe Spielberg's talent and name will be able to sell it to the AMPAS members - if it gets released on time (since it's a movie that needs to sell, which might not be easy if the pandemic keeps out of control coming Christmas time. Karam's The Humans is an adaptation of his own play, which was a success on Broadway and it has Scott Rudin's signature as a producer, so expectations are high, specially considering it also has A24's stamp. Eyeing for a Christmas release, Paul Greengrass' western - News of the World - must be taken seriously, specially considering it stars Tom Hanks (who picks good projects only, consistently). The last two predicted nominees are potential film festival darlings - the hype is good, the female-centric narratives will attract a lot of AMPAS members and the actresses involved are under Oscar buzz because of their performances in these two: Chloe Zhao's Nomadland and Francis Lee's Ammonite.
Aaron Sorkin is an amazing screenwriter, but I had some directorial issues with his directorial debut (Molly's Game), still The Trial of the Chicago 7 is about an important period of American history and it might well over-perform and become a Netflix's top contender. Christopher Nolan's Tenet is no critical darling, but its response is quite positive and audiences are the movie (myself included), so it might surprise. Never Rarely Sometimes Always might be too indie for the AMPAS tastes, but it sure delivers an emotional punch that will move a lot of voters to pick this one as their #1 (if they bother to watch it). Taika Waititi is a comedy genius and he's back this year with a sports comedy-drama - Next Goal Wins - and since he conquered the Academy last year with Jojo Rabbit...! Hillbilly Elegy is highly-antecipated, but Ron Howard is a hit & miss with Oscar recognition. As for Hopkins' starring vehicle The Father, it seems to be more about an acting showcase than an actual Best Picture contender. It has been a while since Disney has produced a Best Picture nominee, but it seems there's something special about Pixar's Soul and I believe it could well become a Best Picture nominee. As for Halle Berry's directorial debut Bruised... early word is positive, but it's more about her performance, so I'll just keep an eye on it by now. Schrader's movies usually don't get nominated here, but he's back to crime thrillers, so let's consider The Card Counter. As for The Prom... it's a Ryan Murphy's star-studded comedy-musical about equality and LGBTQ issues, which might feel like a relevant Best Picture nominee if the movie is any good.
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