Academy Awards 2021 nominees predictions: Above the line Oscar charts (Best Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplays) - 2nd ROUND
The last few months kept me busy both at work and trying to keep up with all the Oscar game news...! New category placements, some unexpected contenders emerging thanks to the critics' push or some delayed projects that won't be released in time for the Oscars 2021 game! Titles like Dune, The French Dispatch, Black Widow, West Side Story, In the Heights or No Time To Die are just some of the bigger titles that won't see the light of the day in order to compete for the major cinematic award.
Addictionaly, some new titles took the lead after Venice Film Festival and TIFF (Nomadland's case), with some more being "revived" thanks to critics prizes - in the case of First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always - while others are getting a qualifying release and a major campaign as its studio's major push - Minari and Promising Young Woman. Other big buzzy titles like Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States Vs. Billie Holiday are waiting until February to be released, but I wonder how will they play with the big precursors! A note to The Trial of the Chicago 7, which got major love despite being a streaming Netflix title, while Mank was mostly a letdown (I will review Mank today).
If you look at the big picture, you realise it can be the "indiest" Oscars ever!
So let's have it started:
- BEST PICTURE
It's Nomadland's race to lose right now. It won Venice's Golden Lion AND TIFF's People's Choice Award and it has been mentioned by critics as one of the best films of the year. Nomadland's biggest competitor might well be Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7, which is doing fairly good with critics, but it is more appealing to the audiences (and more acessible thanks to Netflix) - in fact, in a Trump-win scenario, I would bet all my money on Trial because of the message the AMPAS would want to send the world. Minari also seems destined to be loved, specially if it manages to get some love from the HFPA and the SAG, because it seems the critics have already fallen for it. Mank is a letdown, but I believe it will be admired enough to get enough #1 votes to be nominated here (Fincher going "not edgy" factor I would say, plus I'm expecting Netflix to go for a massive campaign). The other slots feel quite open to me, but I'm optimistic about Regina King's One Night in Miami and Shaka King's Judas and the Black Messiah, while Soul is a masterpiece and I can see it popping up in Best Picture. Those who saw The Father really loved it and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom benefits from Chadwick Boseman's posthumous award goodwill factor and Viola Davis' popularity. Finally, News of the World seems to be an old fashioned western from a director completely aware of its craft and I can see this one to be appealing to the older fractions of the Academy.
The United States vs. Billie Holiday is a movie I can see getting in if it's any good, since I can see it getting a massive campaign (it's Paramount's only big player and a new project for Hulu). The curious case of Sound of Metal: it has been getting a glowing love and it has grown to be a real player, far behind the "acting vehicle status" for Riz Ahmed only. As for First Cow... I think the Best Film/Picture mentions will translate into a screenplay nod and not a Best Picture one. The other contenders feel like longshots in this category to me.
- BEST DIRECTOR
Can Chloé Zhao become the only 6th female director ever to be nominated for Best Director? It feels like so! And I would dare to say she might win here! Bad luck for David Fincher, who's in absolute command of its craft in Mank, but he failed to exude some heart and warmth when Marion Davis (character) is not on-screen. And in case Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) and Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah) manage to be nominated here, I can see it as one of the most inclusive years for Best Director Oscar history (POCs and a female director feel splendid to me). As for Aaron Sorkin, I really hope the Academy realises he can be far more than just a screenwriter - he did a magnificient work in the director's chair for The Trial of the Chicago 7!
- BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
It's Anthony Hopkins (The Father) vs. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) here! Both feel like last chance for an Oscar win - well, Hopkins is getting old and Boseman is (in fact) dead. Critically raved turns from well-liked stars... I hope none of them sweeps, so this Oscar race keeps interesting as it feels right now. Riz Ahmed is amazing in Sound of Metal and can be a dark horse, but I would say a nomination would already be his reward. Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari) and Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) all feel like fighting for the remaining 2 spots, but I believe both Oldman and Yeun benefit from the Best Picture buzz of their movies, while Da 5 Bloods has lost most of its heat when Netflix has made clear what its award priorities were. A note about Mads Mikkelsen, who's great in Druk / Another Round and he feels overdue for a nomiantion after than missed opportunity to shower him in awards for his performance in The Hunt.
- BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
A subtle performance from Frances McDormand? Just take my money! It seems McDormands commands the screen in Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland and it feels like something very special (judging from the trailer) - and I would say she would be a strong contender for a win (but she won a 2nd Oscar recently). Next in line: Viola Davis, who's electrifying as Ma Rainey in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Don't get me wrong, I don't think she's brilliant, but she owns the movie every time she's on screen even though she's almost supporting in terms of screen time (but she feels like a lead) - Davis carries the "we need a Black Best Actress winner narrative", which boosts her Oscar chances at a nomination. Third and a bit behind the other contenders right now: Vanessa Kirby, who was described as an "undeniable Best Actress nominee" for Pieces of a Woman - she took home the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice Film Festival, but I thought it was the kind of contender who would do better with critics prizes... still, she's still in time for major precursors' push and her reviews were real RAVES! Andra Day is said to be brilliant in her acting debut as Billie Holiday in The United States vs. Billie Holiday... and I've some high hopes on her (Lee Daniels is a great actors director and the character is a fascinating one)! The fifth spot feels like a question mark to me, but I'm sceptical about Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman - rave reviews for her performance, but the movie looks too edgy for the Academy and the HFPA placed it in Drama, which means Mulligan won't be that easy Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical winner! That's why I'm predicting Sidney Flanigan to get nominated instead for her amazing turn in Never Rarely Sometimes Always for which she has already won the NYFCC Award and the BSFC Award for Best Actress (besides a couple of Best Actress and Breakthrough award nominations). But I refuse to ignore some screen legends like Sophia Loren (La vita davanti a sè), Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk and The Prom) and Michelle Pfeiffer (The French Exit), which feel likely to get some major late award push. And let's pay attention to Anya Taylor-Joy, the star of Emma., who's also the hit girl of the moment because of her raved performance in The Queen's Gambit TV minisseries.
- BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
First, Glenn Close was the supreme frontrunner... but then, Hillbilly Elegy flopped (for real!). Then Amanda Seyfried took the lead in the Best Supporting Actress race with her performance as Marion Davies in Mank... but there's no real love for her movie. All of the sudden, Youn Yuh-jung got some major critics prizes for her performance in Minari (a contender I only thought "a nomination is her reward" but I can see her on her path to a win!). Then, there's also Maria Bakalova winning NYFCC Award for Best Supporting Actress amongst other critics prizes for her comedic gold performance in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Olivia Colman got a couple of nomination for her performance in The Father and the same can be said about Ellen Burstyn's awards performance for Pieces of a Woman. As for Helena Zengel, she "only" got a CFCA Award nomination for Most Promising Performer, but reviews are kind and her movie is doing well at the box-office in the middle of a pandemic... so, I believe the one to fall is Maria Bakalova despite the major wins she scored with critics. Her only problem is Borat 2 being so silly, so funny, so unmade for the AMPAS tastes, because she's pure comedic genius and I would love to see her nominated! Plus, I believe Glenn Close's shot at an Oscar nomination isn't dead already and I do believe Jodie Foster might score her 5th Oscar nod for her performance in The Mauritanian (I can see her getting in instead of Zengel or even Burstyn)!
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I know it is a risky move not predicting Mank in Best Original Screenplay, but I really don't see any brilliance in its words nor true passion for the movie itself. That's why I'm predicting three passion indie picks instead - the writers branch has already proved its members can go for indies and 2020 is the indie Oscar year. Aaron Sorkin has secured a seat for The Trial of the Chicago 7, while Lee Isaac Chung's Minari might not even score anywhere else, but I see the immigration drama scoring a nom here no matter what. Disney/Pixar has some history of getting Best Original Screenplay nominated animated features and since Soul is THAT GOOD, I'm predicting a nomination here. Eliza Hittman has been collecting critics prizes for Best (Original) Screenplay for Never Rarely Sometimes Always and Focus Features announced a couple of months ago they would campaign for Hittman in this category. As for Sound of Metal, I think the movie is overperforming with awards and audiences love the movie, so I would be surprised if Marder, Marder & Cianfrance score a nomination in this category instead of Jack Fincher (Mank) or the buzzy Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman).
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Apart from Nomadland and The Father, Best Adapted Screenplay feels quite fluid to me. I would also say Kemp Powers has a very strong shot for One Night in Miami, but I don't believe News of the World or even critics darling First Cow are that secure for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, specially when there are names like Charlie Kaufman (i'm thinking of ending things) or the Pulitzer winning and Tony nominee Suzan-Lori Parks (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) also in contention.
Comments