Final countdown to the 93rd Academy Awards nominations' announcement and I couldn't be more excited about it. I know it has been a way (too) long awards season, but it also allowed a big couple of contenders to have its own momentum. Right now, there are categories I feel there's no clear frontrunner (Best Supporting Actress), a lot of spots to fill (Best Supporting Actor) or too many great contenders with a fair shot at a nom (Best Director, Best Original Screenplay or Best Original Score, for example).
The clear frontrunners seem to be Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7, with Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal getting some last minute extra buzz (and I love it!).
So let's have a look at my predictions:
- BEST PICTURE
Chloé Zhao's Nomadland has been sweeping the awards season - after a Golden Lion win at Venice, a People's Choice Award at TIFF and multiple critics prizes, the movie still managed to go beyond the "critics darling movie" tag and took home the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama and it still is in the run for the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Feature and BAFTA Award for Best Film - and it has a Best Picture nomination locked since it appeals both regular audiences, critics and auteur cinema lovers. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is not a masterpiece like Nomadland, but it follows an extremely effective formula: it combines the narrative and pace of a "popcorn court drama", with social commentary, great writing and amazing performances all around, which makes it a #1 choice for members of the acting and writing branches (in fact, it is a crowd pleaser in general) and it managed to get the key nods from the major precursor awards. Lee Isaac Chung's Minari competed as Best Foreign Language Film in a lot of awards (including the Globes, which it won), but critics organizations recognized it as one of best movies of the year and the guilds are embracing it! One Night in Miami (Regina King's directorial debut) got a big boost during Fall film festival seasons, but it managed to keep in the awards conversation - and it is a post-#OscarSoWhite kind of movie the AMPAS needs to nominate here to find redemption (plus, it is an amazing movie, so it won't be difficult for it to get enough #1 votes). As for Judas and the Black Messiah, it also benefits from being a relevant movie about Black American History, but it is a truly enjoyable drama and a terrific piece of filmmaking - plus, since it entered so late in the race there still is some excitment around how "fresh" the movie is when compared to earlier releases. As for The Father, it is the perfect AMPAS movie the older members fall in love with easily (it's the most traditional drama here, carried by brilliant performances), so I'm expecting it to get nominated for Best Picture. David Fincher's Mank has been losing buzz day after day, but it still feels like a prestige picture and since it deals with Hollywood's history of the making of one of the world's biggest cinematic classics, I think it is likely to secure a Best Picture nomination. Now... things start getting shaky! Sound of Metal got a big boost recently awards-wise and those who watch it end up loving it.... the question is: will enough people watch it? Amazon sure built a big campaign around Sound of Metal, so I believe it will get nominated for Best Picture! As for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, I think it is a movie no one truly loves... but the need for a Chadwick Boseman Oscar glory and the Viola Davis factor might be key factors to land a nomination in this category. Finally, I'm predicting Soul to make the list... Call me crazy, but it is my favorite movie of the year and I know I'm not the only one who would pick Soul as my #1 vote (and Disney campaigned it like... a lot!).
I know it doesn't feel safe, but I'm not predicting Promising Young Woman to get a Best Picture nomination, although I admit it can happen: it's the internet's favorite movie for sure, but how many members of the AMPAS are part of "the internet"? The movie sure is fine, the lead performance is brilliant and the writing and execution are top notch, but how many Academy members truly LOVE this movie? It's too edgy for the Academy's tastes. Unlike Promising Young Woman, Paul Greengrass' News of the World is not that edgy - it is a classical western that pleases conversative members, but I see the "old Academy" to fall easier for The Father or Mank. The Mauritanian demonizes the US, but I can see the "European branch" of the Academy going all the way for this one OR for Thomas Vinterberg's Druk (Another Round), which is being widely seen thanks to its Best International Film favorite status. Or will the Academy go nuts and have Borat Subsequent Moviefilm nominated for Best Picture? I think it is unlikely, but I can see it scoring anywherelse. Nolan's Tenet failed to be an above the line Oscar contender and Reichardt's First Cow overperformed with critics, but it's the kind of indie movie that only scores a screenplay nomination and (maybe) breaks in a craft category. Da 5 Bloods' buzz outside Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor fields is weak and Netflix didn't prioritized its awards campaign. Lee Daniels' The U.S. vs Billie Holiday didn't become the awards contender it aimed to be and Never Rarely Sometimes Always was put aside for Focus Features because of Promising Young Woman's awards hopes.
- BEST DIRECTOR
Right now, Best Director is Zhao's to lose (and to become the first Asian female director to be nominated)! David Fincher seems locked for a NOMINATION for Mank and Lee Isaac Chung is getting more and more secure at the #3 seat of the Best Director Oscar nominees shortlist. The question is: who will get the #4 and #5 spots? If the AMPAS wants to make history, they will also go for Regina King for her impressive directorial debut One Night in Miami: it can be the first time in Oscar history the AMPAS nominated two female directors and it can also be the first time a Black American female director gets nominated in this category! I know it might be risky to predict such a male centered branch to go for two female nominees the same year, when they snubed last year's Oscar caliber work from female directors, but I believe the branch will seek redemption in order to avoid #OscarSoWhite and #OscarSoMale backlash. But the directors branch is not kind to actors turned directors (Barbra Streisand, Ben Affleck or Bradley Cooper), but she can be a Robert Redford! Or is Emerald Fennell (also an actress turned director) stronger than I think? Could Fennell be the second female director to be nominated? Maybe, but my #5 is Aaron Sorkin, who estabilishes himself in the directing field with the Oscar favorite The Trial of the Chicago 7... It might be tricky for Oscar winning writers to break in the Best Director shorlist at the Oscars, but I believe Sorkin will have a happier fate than Martin McDonagh (3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) or Peter Farrelly (Green Book).
- BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The AMPAS loves Frances McDormand and she's excellent in Nomadland, which happens to be the current Best Picture frontrunner... she's locked! Andra Day took everyone by surprise when she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama, for her portray of Billie Holiday: she delivers the best female performance of the year (it's her acting debut AND she truly is amazing!!!!!) and the AMPAS members love leading biopic performances...! As for Viola Davis, she has beeIn nominated everywhere (except the BAFTA) for her performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and her superstardom won't hurt for sure. Plus, if Davis gets nominated, she will become the sole "most nominated" black actress, the first black actress to be nominated twice for Best Actress and it might be the only second time in Oscar history two black actresses got nominated the same for Best Actress (Day and Davis, after Tyson and Ross), The #4 and #5 feel kinda fluid for me, but I believe the most secure combination is Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman (a critically acclaimed performance that was able to carry itself almost alone during the whole awards season) and Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman (one of the most acclaimed and awarded works here, but I'm afraid the AMPAS might not go for PYW the same way people went everywherelse).
- BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Anthony Hopkins for his best performance ever since Silence of the Lambs? The Father has Best Picture buzz? Hopkins: CHECK! Posthumous Oscar nomination for an extremely popular actor like Chadwick Boseman? He outshines Viola Davis in a movie? Boseman: CHECK! As for Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal, he's amazing in the role of a drummer who loses his hearing and must cope with his new condition and the movie is getting a last-minute Oscar boost everywhere... I feel like Ahmed is a secure pick! Steven Yeun might get an Oscar history making nomination if he gets nominated for Minari - the first Asian American actor ever to be nominated in this category. He has been campaigning like crazy these weeks and precursor awards embraced Minari... so, maybe....! The AMPAS isn't kind to Asian actors! The last spot pick is a Russian roulette between Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) and Mads Mikkelsen (Druk / Another Round), but I decided to go for Mikkelsen - Druk is being widely seen since it is a finalist for Best International Film category, people love the movie and his performance and he was deserving of an Oscar nomination for The Hunt (2012), but missed the nod. Mikkelsen missed Golden Globe, SAG and Critics' Choice nominations for sure, but BAFTA nominated him and he also won the European Film Award for Best Actor some months ago.
- BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
No one's safe here! Colman got nominated everywhere, but she hasn't won anything and the BAFTA snubed her... she's amazing in The Father and more than holds herself against Hopkins, so she feels like the less fragile of the contenders. Minari's Youn is a critics' favorite and she delivers a moving performance as a sympathetic feminist Korean grandma who teaches her grandchildren how to embrace life's joy - she won tons of critics prizes, missed a Golden Globe nomination, but got SAG Award nods for Best Supporting Actress and Best Ensemble and a BAFTA Award nomination for Best Supporting Actress... she feels likely to be nominated. As for Maria Bakalova, she would be considered the category's frontrunner since she's the only one that didn't miss any organization's nom... but Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is not the type of comedy that gets Oscar glory and voters might not even watch the movie. Jodie Foster's Golden Globe win for The Mauritanian sure made a lot of voters go watch the movie, plus she's an Oscar veteran and former Hollywood darling... The role is juicy, the movie is daring and the performance is everything you would expect from Foster. Finally, Amanda Seyfried as Marion Davies in Mank! Seyfried is fragile... there's no passion for the movie itself and she missed SAG and BAFTA nominations, but I believe delivering such a mesmerizing (and brief) performance as an Hollywood icon will pay off.
- BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Kaluuya delivers the best acting performance of the year. Hands down. Give him a nomination for playing Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah! Sacha Baron Cohen gets serious in The Trial of the Chicago 7 and he has some of the best lines of the movie... plus, Borat 2 success doesn't hurt and a Best Supporting Actor nomination would work as a way to recognize his work this year overall. Leslie Odom Jr. is not the best in show in One Night in Miami (that title belongs to Kingsley Ben-Adir), but he has some of the best scenes and he embodies Cooke beautifully. A nomiantion feels very likely... Almost as locked as Kaluuya and Cohen. Paul Raci was not meant to be a major Best Supporting Actor contender, but he is right now! One of my personal favorite performances of the year - he does a lot with such limited screentime. He missed Golden Globe and SAG nominations, but BAFTA and Critics' Choice Awards nominated him and he won a big couple of critics organizations' awards... A nomination sounds probable. The last spot... I'm going for Alan Kim, who's fresh from a Critics Choice Award win for Best Young Actor and a BAFTA nomination for Best Supporting Actor for Minari. A magnificient child performance in a great movie... Why not? He's adorable!
Bill Murray is one of the most beloved veteran actors working today and he's in top form in Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks. The Globes nominated him, but SAG and BAFTA passed him and the buzz is fading...! Chadwick Boseman might achieve the impressive feat of a posthumous double Oscar nomination if the AMPAS also goes for him for Da 5 Bloods. I wouldn't be shocked if that happens, but his work in Da 5 Bloods is not as good as other contenders' and a win in lead for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom seems more than enough of posthumous recognition. Then... Jared Leto for The Little Things... Awards sure love psychopaths, but Leto is not award worthy for me in this one. Not a Leto hater, but I find is performance in The Little Things undeserving of such recognition like an Oscar nomination. Glynn Turman's work in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is mesmerizing... a truly brilliant supporting performance that got recognized by LAFCA, but no one else paid attention, so a nod seems unlikely to happen. Finally, another Chicago 7 boy... Mark Rylance, the acting veteran has a couple of juicy scenes and he's the best in show for me, but award attention went all the way for Cohen...! Could The Trial of the Chicago 7 surprise and get 2 nods in this category? If so, I believe Rylance will be the man.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- BEST EDITING
- BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- BEST MAKEUP & HAIR
- BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- BEST SOUND
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
- BEST DOCUMENTARY
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