- BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog and Belfast feel pretty much secure. West Side Story and Dune are the big below-the-line players with Best Picture buzz, so it feels like they also have a spot in the TOP 5. Then, I would say we have three crowd-pleasing/passion films: Licorice Pizza, CODA and King Richard, which managed to get some key precursor noms along the way (and even overperforming sometimes). So, there are 3 spots left to fill... Don't Look Up has done quite good with the guilds and audiences and Netflix is pushing it hard as an Oscar contender. The critics' darling Drive My Car is also a strong bet here, since it managed to grow in the awards season and it is a big contender in Best International Film, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay fields too. The last spot... well, the guilds would say Being the Ricardos or No Time to Die, but Netflix's tick, tick... BOOM! will pick some passion votes for sure - and it is a movie about being an artist which might relate with a big couple of Academy members. The Lost Daughter might also benefit from the Netflix's seal and Gyllenhaal & Colman combined star-power. As for The Tragedy of Macbeth... the AMPAS loves the Coen brothers, but will they embrace Joel's lone adventure in filmmaking without his brother?
- BEST DIRECTOR
I beleive Jane Campion's sweep with the precursor awards and critics prizes will translate into a Best Director nomination, making her the first female director to be nominated more than once in this category - and considering The Power of the Dog's buzz she might even win. Villeneuve is expected to be nominated here given his epic work in Dune and I believe Spielberg is also safe for his work in West Side Story (a legendary director who goes out of his confort zone by directing a movie musical for the first time!). Since the directors branch often embraces international auteurs, Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) is a very likely nominee here. The last spot... I picked Branagh since Belfast is lovely and well-loved, but it can well end-up being Paul Thomas Anderson for the incredible Licorice Pizza (he's an AMPAS' darling!). Still, I wouldn't exclude Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Sian Heder (CODA) given their brilliant directing efforts - and since the AMPAS has already nominated 2 female directors last year, it could well happen again! Of course Miranda is a huge star in the industry and tick, tick... BOOM! is just fantastic, but the competition is fierce. As for Farhadi (A Hero), truth is Amazon did a poor job promoting his movie and the "international auteur" buzz went solely to Hamaguchi.
- BEST ACTRESS
The craziest Oscar category this year! So many ups and downs, but I think there are three safe names to predict: Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos); Lady Gaga (House of Gucci); and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter). The other names? Well, Alana Haim delivers the acting debut of the year in Licorice Pizza - she's a natural on-screen star and she commands the movie with a rare charisma - and the AMPAS often goes for the "cool new girl in town" (and she got nominated everywhere except for SAG Awards). The fifth spot... well, I believe it will go for a foreign-language performance. Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) would be the natural pick, since she delivers the best performance of the year and she's an Oscar winner (and 3 times nominee), but I believe The Worst Person in the World was more widely seen by the acting branch than Parallel Mothers, which gives advantage to Renate Reinsve - a star-making performance that earned her the Cannes Film Festival prize for Best Female Performance and a BAFTA nomination. Stewart (Spencer), the former frontrunner can still happen, but the movie is not audiences-friendly. Jennifer Hudson has been campaigning everywhere and she has the right role in Respect - music legend Aretha Franklin - but the movie was such an early release and there are better and more recent performances contending. Chastain is one of the best working actresses these days and she's incredible as Tammy Faye in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, but the movie is bad (still, she has Searchlight campaigning her). Zegler (West Side Story) feels like a very long-shot at the moment.
- BEST ACTOR
The awards season was all around these four names: Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Smith (King Richard), Garfield (tick, tick... BOOM!) and Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), so... who will be #5? I know Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) got surprise Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations, which makes him the most logical pick, but Leonardo DiCaprio is one of the biggest stars in Hollywood and he stars the buzzy Don't Look Up - which earned him Golden Globe and BAFTA noms for Best Actor and a SAG Award nod for Ensemble. Adam McKay's latest is not my favorite movie of the year (not even close, it's just silly), but there's no way to ignore the way DiCaprio as a top contender, so he's my pick. The industry seems to love Mahershala Ali, but I don't believe enough voters have seen Swan Song (such a low-profile release)... still, he got a Golden Globe and BAFTA noms for this performance and critics just raved him! Just remember Ali has received 2 Oscar noms (winning both) and 4 Emmy noms (1 win) since 2016 - which shows some widespread love in Hollywood. Dinklage's buzz is fading and Cyrano has been underperforming with awards. Cage (Pig) seems more like a critics-thing for me. Jude Hill can happen if voters don't focus their votes on that #5 spot... people love Belfast and he's lovely in it!
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose is the MVP in West Side Story and she nails the legendary role of Anita that earned her co-star Rita Moreno an Oscar 60 years ago and I am expecting her to show-up here. Balfe (Belfast) and Dunst (The Power of the Dog) not only deliver exquisite performances, but they also benefit from their films' Best Picture buzz. As for Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), she has been living a career resurgence in the last couple of years and she's able to outshine Will Smith in King Richard - but she missed an individual SAG Award nom somehow despite being nominated as part of the movie's ensemble cast. Ruth Negga's performance in Passing is exquisite, complex, beautiful, but her path to a 2nd Oscar nom looks fragile at the moment since Passing is not a big Oscar player. Dowd (Mass) had some last-minute buzz after being the early frontrunner before awards season, while Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) is also a menacing contender. Moreno (West Side Story) lost alher co-star DeBose in late awards season, Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) is amazing but too unconventional and daring for AMPAS voters' tastes and the always reliable Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) has been on the rise in the last couple of weeks (could she upset in the end?).
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Just like Best Actress... a mess! I only feel 3 "safe" bets here: Kodi (The Power of the Dog), Hinds (Belfast) and Kotsur (CODA) - an out-of-this-world performance, a career recognition and a passion pick, all 3 from Best Picture players. Then I believe the acting branch might think it is about time to nominate Ben Affleck for acting and since he's amazing in The Tender Bar, the AMPAS might have the right "excuse" to honor him - they love career resurgences and Affleck last couple of years feel like a career comeback. The fifth spot? I'm beting on Mike Faist! His BAFTA nomination might indicate he was a clear favorite (I don't think he was a jury pick) and he shared the MVP reviews with DeBose - plus, this guy is a Tony, Grammy and Emmy nominee already, so... he's a hard-working actor that the AMPAS branch might feel like he deserves to become an Academy Award nominee. But the Academy also loves: Bradley Cooper (who has a showy cameo in Licorice Pizza) and showy performances under tons of makeup and prosthetics (Jared Leto, who's awful in House of Gucci but somehow still manages to get award noms for it). More familiar names, right? Could one of them (or both) sneak in and take Affleck and Faist spots? Then there's Jamie Dornan (Belfast), who's not as good as Hinds. David Alvarez (West Side Story) would be an welcome nomination coming from nowhere, since he's amazing in the movie but received zero award recognition. Finally, Jesse Plemmons could coatail for a Best Supporting Actor nomination considering the frontrunner status of The Power of the Dog.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Could the writing branch go for Parallel Mothers (Madres Paralelas)? Every year there's a sole screenplay nominee, a welcome and worthy surprise, that pops-up here or in Best Adapted Screenplay. Or will the branch go for the "standard" options? It has been a while since Pedro Almodóvar got nominated here and Parallel Mothers is one of his best works ever! Or could Mass or C'mon C'mon be the sole screenplay nominees? For some reason, I feel a Being the Ricardos snub... but maybe it is just me recalling that Steve Jobs (2015) snub.
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
It all looks safe to me... but I wouldn't be surprise if Tony Kushner (West Side Story) misses here despite his incredible re-adaptation of the musical. Dune would be a worthy nominee here, since the novel is quite complex and the writing team did a great work adaptating it for the screen. The "Coen" name is quite popular in the writing branch, so The Tragedy of Macbeth could well end-up in the TOP 5 despite the low-profile showing in this category during the awards season.
- BEST EDITING
- BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Janusz Kaminski is a huge name in the cinematography department and his work in West Side Story was considered a lock for this category... but then he missed the ASC Award nom (the cinematography guild). Is he in danger? Note: the AMPAS loves B&W cinematography, so not predicting Belfast might be foolish, but there are so many amazing (and strong) options this year!
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- BEST MAKEUP & HAIR
- BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
MCU dominates the final shortlist, but only Spider-Man: No Way Home feels secure from its Marvel plate. Dune is the clear frontrunner. No Time to Die feels strong considering the branch loves pratical visual effects. As for Godzilla vs. Kong, this franchise has always made the final shortlist and sometimes all you need is a "charismatic" visual-effects-generated on-screen creature to get a nomination here. I believe the last spot can go to Black Widow, the dark horse in this race - it combines heavy CGI sequences, but also some practical effects and the movie has a faithful fanbase, while voters might split too many votes in other MCU installments.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- BEST SOUND
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I predict a shocking miss of Raya and the Last Dragon here in favour of Belle (Disney can't have it all!), since the AMPAS loves anime animation and the later has been collecting rave reviews and it did make a good show at the Annie Awards. Sing 2 is a huge box-office hit (specially for post-pandemic standards), but voters avoid sequels in this category. And I feel Luca is not as safe as most people think it is: the lack of a theatrical release made it a "streaming movie" that did not receive the love it deserves... but it is a Pixar movie, so...!
- BEST DOCUMENTARY
I feel anxious about predicting Summer of Soul, since the AMPAS often snubs the Best Documentary frontrunner AND documentaries about music...! God!!!!!! But it is such a good movie!
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