Oscar race is on! Studios have already published the release dates of its biggest award hopefuls and the reason I'm writing this piece this late in the season is due to Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon, which ended-up being postponed for a 2023 release date. It was Apple's biggest Oscar player this season and it leaves the newly-Best Picture winning studio with only Cha Cha Real Smooth as the only viable award vehicle for Apple this season. The thing is: Cha Cha Real Smooth is not as beloved as CODA was last year, but I expect it to crack here and there thanks to a strong campaign... still, a Best Picture nod looks like a longshot.
Meanwhile, Searchlight's Good Luck to You, Leo Grande was deemed eligible for Oscar consideration since the AMPAS accepted an appeal from the distributor, which released the movie on Hulu streaming service by the time the Academy reversed the Oscar eligibility rules back to pre-COVID terms. The movie, the screenplay and, specially Emma Thompson are on board once again. And then, Focus Features acquired Wes Anderson's Asteroid City, but there's no word about its release date or a film festival premiere, so the chances of having it released this year seem to be lingering, which might mean a major push for TÁR and The Northman from Focus.
Meanwhile, Searchlight's Good Luck to You, Leo Grande was deemed eligible for Oscar consideration since the AMPAS accepted an appeal from the distributor, which released the movie on Hulu streaming service by the time the Academy reversed the Oscar eligibility rules back to pre-COVID terms. The movie, the screenplay and, specially Emma Thompson are on board once again. And then, Focus Features acquired Wes Anderson's Asteroid City, but there's no word about its release date or a film festival premiere, so the chances of having it released this year seem to be lingering, which might mean a major push for TÁR and The Northman from Focus.
Things are looking fine for Steven Spielberg's The Fabelmans: a autobiographical movie about the legendary director himself and you know how successful these kind of projects are with the Academy members (Cuarón's Roma and Brannagh's Belfast) and since it has the giant Universal backing it, I believe this is our frontrunner right now. Sarah Polley might also benefit from the recent tendency of not overlooking great movie from female directors: her Women Talking is based on a great novel (which I am reading) and the feminist subject and rich characters will be the Academy's cup of tea (plus, it benefits from the Frances McDormand boost factor). A24's Everything Everywhere All At Once is a box-office hit (specially considering its "auteur" vibe) and a critical darling, led by a beloved Asian icon... and the hype keeps growing, so I can see it nominated for Best Picture easily. Netflix's biggest contender might well be Bardo, considering the AMPAS loves (and over-awards) Alejandro González Iñárritu's movies - it will be an almost 3 hours-long movie about a journalist covering some big historic events in Mexico. You might think it has the disadvantage of being a Spanish-spoken movie, but the AMPAS members have been growing a great taste for non-English language movies these days, so, no big deal...! Next, I'm eyeing Damien Chazelle's Babylon, a movie about Hollywood's transition from silent to sound movies, which gives me some The Artist vibes at same time...! Described as an epic-scaled Singing in the Rain, Babylon might well score big at the Oscars (and Chazelle knows how to direct a musical for sure!).
Another buzzy title these days is Maria Schrader's She Said, about the exposure of Harvey Weinstein's history of sexual abuse and misconduct by two New York Times journalists... the thing is: it looks far superior than 2019's Bombshell, more in the same vein as the Best Picture-winning Spotlight (2015). Universal is a big studio and I believe they would be able to afford campaigning The Fabelmans and She Said - and considering Schrader brought us Unorthodox TV miniseries, the expectations are high! Then, the AMPAS loves a biopic and Baz Luhrmann's Elvis is both a critically acclaimed and a box-office hit one! "Elvis Presley" factor will play in favor and the fact Austin Butler is the current frontrunner for Best Actor also helps a lot! Plus, Elvis is expected to do quite well in the below the line categories, so if Warner Bros. manages an award campaign for the film, a Best Picture nod seems easy to get!
Finally, I believe the AMPAS will go for a blockbuster here... the spot will be a fight between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water... both sequels to highly successful first installments (both Best Picture nominated, both huge box-office successes), bot visually striking judging from the trailer, both distributed by Disney. The thing is the AMPAS does not embrace the superhero genre in the above the line categories that easily, so I am going for James Cameron's sequel. Some could argue Top Gun: Maverick is also in the Best Picture race (which is a valid point), but later franchise releases always get more word-of-mouth heat in the middle of the Oscar campaigning period. Other buzzy title here is Florian Zeller's The Son, distributed by Sony... will it be so loved across the board like The Father back two years ago? Cha Cha Real Smooth is a lovely Sundance film, but unlike CODA it lacks the "this is special" vibe... but it still is Apple's best shot at some Oscar love right now. A note about Triangle of Sadness which was acquired by NEON for a US distribution and it is likely to be the indie distributor's biggest award play this season - it won the Palme d'Or, but reviews are kind of polarizing... still it is a prestige title with a very sharp script that I can see going far in the Oscar race.
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