Academy Awards 2023 nominees predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role & Best Actor in a Supporting Role (1st ROUND)

• BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The most open Oscar races of the year seem to be the supporting acting ones. The category placement of Michelle Williams as a lead for The Fabelmans opened a huge gap in the Best Supporting Actress predictions and... God!... How exciting it really is!

Sarah Polley's Women Talking has been collecting rave reviews since the day it first hit fall film festival circuit, with both Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley receiving some of the best reviews of their careers and the movie's MVPs status. Since Foy got THAT ATROCIOUS SNUB for First Man (2018) despite being in a career's sweet spot thanks to the acclaim (and popularity and awards love) of The Crown TV series, then an Academy Award nomination would not only be a recognition for her performance, but also an apology from the AMPAS. As for Jessie Buckley, she can benefit from some career hit: an impressive breakthrough performance in Beast (2017), followed by an Oscar worthy (but snubed) turn in Wild Rose (2018), a profile rising leading performance in I'm Thinking About Ending Things (2020) and then an highly acclaimed turn in The Lost Daughter (2021) that earned her a surprising (yet worthy) Academy Award nomination for Best Supporting Actress... and now a raved work in a major Best Picture contender. And I don't feel they will cancel each other on nominations morning - the movie is too big of a player and it can well take two nods in the same acting category. Then, there's Hong Chau who shines in The Whale - and while some expected the movie to be Brendan Fraser's show alone, most were impressed by her acting turn, which is said to be really moving and outstanding... so she can coattail Fraser's award road easily (plus she has delivered great turns before in Downsizing, Homecoming TV series and The Watchmen TV series, so I believe she's under the Academy's radar already). The fourth spot could well be the most secure one actually: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin. The movie is said to be a two men show, but most critics mention Condon as one of the highlights. Since the actress has never had a role this proeminent in such a high profile awards player, I can see her gaining traction in Best Supporting Actress and Breakthrough Performance categories, which will give her a boost. Plus, Searchlight is great with campaigning and The Banshees will be its top awards priority. The fifth spot is a tricky one, because I feel Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis might end-up canceling each other, despite the popularity of Everything Everywhere All At Once. Both comedic turns, but Hsu's role is larger, more complex and it has more dramatic beats... still, she's young and unknown in the industry, while Jamie Lee Curtis feels overdue for an Oscar nod and she has been promoting and campaigning like crazy this year. But will A24 afford them AND Hong Chau? Will Chau be denied an Oscar campaign? Or will A24 focus solely in EEAAO and push both Hsu and Curtis? Well... I don't believe this category will have 4 actresses from only 2 movies... Which leads me to the possibility of having Janelle Monáe taking the 5th seat instead - Glass Onion has been getting great reviews, with critics giving special praise to the actress and since Netflix has few acting contenders to push, she might become a top priority for the streaming giant. 

Then, there's Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, who simply sells the movie and makes you feel her absence when she's not on screen. It's a powerful performance as a grieving mother and a struggling queen who refuses to play weak and an she would be totally worthy of an Oscar nod, but the Black Panther sequel isn't being met with the same level of acclaim as its first installment and it could only ending-up score some below the line nods from the artisan branches. As for Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness, she's the best thing about the movie, but has been losing buzz lately. NEON will push Triangle of Sadness like crazy coming awards season, but I think the movie will struggle to find enough love to break the Oscars big categories. Carey Mulligan commits category fraud and goes supporting for She Said. I believe she's in for the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice, but I think (and I hope) the Academy doesn't buy her - and the AMPAS has already snubed her for worthy turns like Shame and Wildlife, so they can snub her for the right movie now.

• BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Ke Huy Quan had me at "In another life I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you" - the role of the husband from another dimension with superpowers sure is fun, but Quan is heartbreaking when he tries to bring the best out of his wife and when he plays her lost love of another life. Beautiful performance, a known face in Hollywood and a critical & box-office hit, I expect Quan to be nominated (and maybe win) for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Next in line comes Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin, a category fraud they say, but the movie seems truly undeniable in terms of awards, considering the critical acclaim it has been receiving. After so many brilliant performances in recent years (with his work in 2014's Calvary standing as his most Oscar worthy turn to date), I believe it's time for him to get an Oscar nomination (shame it will be thanks to a category fraud). Ben Whishaw is a brilliant actor and he got some love in Sarah Polley's Women Talking - he didn't get the same level of acclaim as his co-stars Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (truth be told), but he stands a strong chance at an Oscar nomination because he's the sole big male role in the narrative (and it's a sympathetic role of an underdog) and the movie is expected to be well-received by the Academy. The funny thing about The Fabelmans is that everyone was expecting it to be Paul Dano's show, but it was Judd Hirsch who received the big praise and generated the buzziest conversation in the Best Supporting Actor field. It is said to be a scene-stealing performance, with a perfect Oscar clip, so...! The fifth spot will be between Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Dano (The Fabelmans). Both have co-stars with better chances at Oscar recognition (Keoghan has Gleeson and Dano has Hirsch) and while most people might argue Dano has a better chance because of his many Oscar snubs (Little Miss Sunshine, There Will Be Blood and Love & Mercy), I see more passion for The Banshees of Inisherin than The Fabelmans and Keoghan is said to have a key scene ("a moving" one they say). Will the AMPAS go for the overdue actor or for the star on the rise? Don't forget Keoghan got critical acclaim already for his work in The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017) and Calm With Horses (2020), which makes him a "reliabe" option for the Academy. 

Babylon received some love it or hate it reactions. Brad Pitt is praised, but he's not singled-out... but he still is the most praised element of the supporting cast. Will the Academy fall in love for Babylon and nominate it across the board? If so, Pitt can be nominated! Otherwise, I don't see the AMPAS going for him considering the recent accusations of domestic abuse. Another strong contender is Eddie Redmayne for The Good Nurse - the Netflix drama is popular with viewers and the actor got a lot of praise as the nurse accused of killing its patients. The Academy loves a good psycho and so do the precursors. I expect Redmayne to campaign and get nods from some televised precursors and with Netflix behind the movie, a nomination is quite a possibility, honestly. Another psycho in play: Mark Rylance in Bones & All. The already Academy Award winner hasn't delivered another Oscar nominated turn after his win for Bridges of Spies and despite the warm critical reception of his work in Guadagnino's latest, I believe it might be too weird for the AMPAS tastes and both Taylor Russell and Timothée Chalamet might get all the awards attention instead of him (the kids are campaigning a lot). Finally, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway - an actor I really want to see getting an Oscar nomination since he delivers solid acting year after year in everything he appears (from Atlanta TV series to Barry Jenkin's If Beale Street Could Talk). In this one, Henry plays a man coping with trauma and critics lauded his performance, but the movie is small and I believe Apple will focus on Emancipation and neglect Causeway coming awards season.