Academy Awards 2023 nominees predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role & Best Actor in a Leading Role (1st ROUND)

• BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

One of the greatest working actresses these days, Cate Blanchett's performance in Tár met some of the "best of her career" kind of reviews and it has already earned the Volpi Cup for Best Actress of Venice International Film Festival and a couple of other film festival prizes - some people are already talking about a possible Oscar win since the movie is also Focus Features' top priority this awards season, so an Academy Award nomination seems locked. Next in line, there's Michelle Yeoh, the star of Everything Everywhere All at Once, who delivers her best performance since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000). Yeoh is not the greatest actress in the world, but her character Evelyn is simply tailor-made for her acting talent, providing her some juicy scenes while it also pays homage to her career in wuxia films. It makes audiences feel a "it's her time" when we talk about Oscar nominations. Plus: Everything Everywhere All at Once is a strong Best Picture player, a critical acclaimed movie and a box-office hit, crossing the $100M line at box-office from a $25M budget. I believe it's Yeoh's time.

Then things look a bit shakier, but I believe Danielle Deadwyler's performance in Chinonye Chukwu's Till, as Mamie Till, the broken-hearted mother who fights in court for justice regarding her son's death, will impress the AMPAS acting branch members - it's a tour-de-force performance lauded by critics and audiences, an heartwrenchingly turn and a tale about a mother's grief... and the Academy loves suffering moms. The buzz is strong and the movie's reception is solid! The fourth place goes to Michelle Williams for Steven Spielberg's The Fabelmans. She surprised everyone when it was announced she would be campaign Best Actress in a Leading Role and not Supporting, which could be a risky move, but it happens her performance was met with widespread acclaim and it seems she really holds the screen as the movie's leading lady. It's another "suffering mom" role as the artsy mother of an aspiring filmmaker who shares her life with a man who can only see science. Critics loved her and The Fabelmas took home the People's Choice Award at TIFF, making it the early frontrunner for Best Picture, which only boosts her Oscar chances. AND let's not forget Williams has already delivered four Oscar nominated acting turns, which might sell a "she's overdue for a win" narrative this awards season.

The fifth place is a tricky one, but I will rely on Viola Davis' star power so I believe she gets the last spot in the nominees shortlist for The Woman King. She stars as the warrior general Nanisca, the woman behind a whole army of strong black women who fight for their kingdom - it's an empowering character that Davis inhabits in a very subtle yet assuring and strong way. She doesn't have a big crying Oscar clip here, instead she has a whole movie, action sequences and moments where she confronts her own ghosts - if nominated, it would be her most subtle performance (so far) to achieve such recognition. Right next to Davis, there's Margot Robbie for Babylon - she's the it girl of Hollywood these days, but Babylon is far more campy than most people thought and the Academy doesn't always like that tone. Still, she got a lot of praise from the first screening reactions and she's in a sweespot in her career for a third Oscar nomination, but this year's Best Actress race is just highly competitive (one of the most competitive in the last 10 years, for sure) so I feel she might not be THAT safe... let's see how awards season will go for her. I believe Taylor Russell (Bones and All) might have a big critics push during the critics associations prizes season - they love the horror genre and they love a star-making performance from a young actress. In fact, Russell is memerizing and she has already been award with the Marcello Mastroianni Award at Venice International Film Festival. The movie has met critical acclaim and while it isn't for mainstream audiences, it seems a lot of people love it - can she be a passion pick? I believe so... and she's campaigning a lot! And then... what about Emma Thompson for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande? Well, it has been a while since the last time Thompson got invited to the Oscar ceremony as a nominee competing for a win, but this year she has an Oscar-caliber performance in a critically praised film backed by a campaigning master - Searchlight! The thing is... her movie is a sex-comedy! Are there enough "fresh" members of the acting branch that could back her? There's also Tang Wei, the star of Decision to Leave, who's mesmerizing as the movie's femme fatale and she has been winning EVERYTHING in Asia for this performance... but Decision to Leave will have to hit big with the Academy for her to rise. The "last" spot goes to Jennifer Lawrence for Causeway - it's her return to indies and she was met with critical acclaim... the Gotham Awards and the Independent Spirit Award might not have gone for her, but life has taught me to never ignore Lawrence's award chances!

• BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Austin Butler secured an Oscar nomination the day Baz Lhurman's Elvis received critical praise AND had such a strong box-office performance! It's an electrifying acting turn, a complete embodiment of a character (Elvis Presley), something often mind-blowing in some scenes to be honest... even those who didn't like the movie that much (like me) can't deny the brilliance of Butler's performance. Plus, reports say the screenings of Elvis for the awards bodies have been a huge campaigning success, so there's love for the movie (and performance) for sure. Maybe Butler's biggest award sidekick this season - Brendan Fraser has received rave reviews for his performance as an obese man imprisoned in his own house by his own body awaiting for death to come in Darren Aronofsky's The Whale and his personal career comeback narrative has everyone rooting for his success and recognition (just like what happened with Mickey Rourke back in 2008 for The Wrestler, another Darren Aronofsky's movie). Third spot goes for Colin Farell, who seems to have (finally) found his Oscar vehicle in Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin. It is a comedic performance, which is not always easy to sell to the Academy, but Banshees has received universal acclaim and it has Searchlight backing the Oscar campaign. Plus, Farell won the prestigious Volpi Cup for Best Actor at Venice Film Festival for this performance and he's also having a banner year with 3 other highly acclaimed performances in The Batman, Thirteen Lives and After Yang, so... everything seems set-up for "Academy Award nominee - Colin Farell". Another actor deserving of some Oscar recognition for years is the great Bill Nighy and it seems he has also found an Oscar vehicle in Oliver Hermanus' Living - a tale about an old man who faces the perspective of death and decides to change his life. The movie was a beloved one in the film festival circuit and it has been building momentum slowly (yet steady) and with Sony Pictures Classics behind Living's Oscar campaign, I believe Nighy will be a major contender in the Best Actor in a Leading Role race - and, as a beloved British acting legend, he might be the #1 pick of the Brits of the acting branch. The last spot? I'm putting my money on Paul Mescal for Aftersun. The movie will be a passion pick for a lot of voters for sure if it manages to be seen - since those who watch it simply love it. Mescal might be "too young" for Oscar attention, but he has been building a serious reputation as an actor after his fantastic Emmy nominated performance in Normal People TV series and fine turns in The Lost Daughter and God's Creatures. With his rave reviews and his emerging star in Hollywood, I believe Mescal might have an awards trajectory similar to Ryan Gosling's for Half Nelson back in 2006 - he has already been nominated for the Gotham Award, Independent Spirit Award, British Independent Film Award and the European Film Award for Best Actor, so... it's a huge start!

But I have to admit Diego Calva would also make for an interesting pick for the Best Actor nominees shortlist - not only he's receiving widespread praise for his performance in Babylon, but he's also a POC, which would also work as "Academy embracing diversity". Still, it seems Calva's biggest obstacle might be the movie itself: early reactions are very love/hate it, some say it is "campy", others say it is "messy" or a "wild ride"... Will there be enough room for Calva to shine? Will Babylon be good enough to be taken seriously in the above the line categories? We will have to wait. An emerging dark-horse of this Best Actor race, Adam Sandler is back to awards talk for Hustle - it is an uplifting sports drama, with some funny moments, easy to please a crowd. He's Netflix's big push in this category and I wouldn't be surprise if he starts appearing in the critics prizes shortlists. Don't call me crazy, the "cr*ppy comedy" career route seems to be long gone: The Meyerowitz Stories (2017) brought him back to serious cinema ground, Uncut Gems (2019) had him pursuing an Oscar nod and almost getting it (won a ton of critics prizes) and he's back in the race with Hustle. The former Oscar front-runner is also a contender to watch... Hugh Jackman went from Oscar favorite to way below the line candidate for The Son, since the movie was panned during its film festival run (Jackman, still, was one of the few positive elements of the film according to critics) and I believe Sony will focus its focus in Nighy in this particular race. What about Tom Cruise? A comeback narrative thanks to the huge critical and box-office success of Top Gun: Maverick? Well, the nostalgia factor will play in his favor, for sure, but he still is a problematic public figure and his performance is nothing special - in such a not-competitive Best Actor race, I hope the AMPAS doesn't go for such a confortable acting work. The last spot goes for Song Kang-ho, who won the Cannes Film Festival Award for Best Actor for Broker... and he was contending for an Oscar nomination some years ago for Parasite! But things don't look nice for him since neither South Korea nor Japan have picked Broker as their Best International Film submission. Kang-ho relies on an hipothetical critics push in order to re-enter the Oscar talk (which he deserves!).