The State of the Race: the post BAFTA and guild awards

So... it's that time of the year where we have to align expectations, put wishful thinking aside and look at the stats/facts as we should. The end of a precursor awards season means everything's set for the Best Picture race at the Oscars and this year's scenario is quite interesting: BAFTA went for a German-speaking war drama All Quiet On the Western Front (which happens to be also a technical marvel), the Golden Globes went for Spielberg's The Fabelmans (Motion Picture - Drama) and Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin (Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical), which also won Best British Film at the BAFTA. National Board of Review is not a quite reliable indicator, but it named Top Gun: Maverick the Best Film of the year (which only matched the Best Picture winner 2 times in the last 23 years!), a box-office phenomenon that did great in the tech categories and with audiences. But the guilds went all the way for Everything Everywhere All At Once - PGA, DGA, SAG to name the big ones, with WGA still pending. So, which one wins? I would say Everything Everywhere All At Once is the one to beat right now since it is peaking momentum at the right time of the voting process, but The Banhees of Inisherin shouldn't be ruled out since it has a solid fanbase, it took home some major prizes from BAFTA (an institution quite similar to the AMPAS in terms of membership) and it managed to get all the key nominations it needed during the awards season.

Another thing we should pay attention is the audiences' response. Everything Everywhere All At Once sure is a box-office success, making more than $100M from a $25M budget, but it was The Fabelmans the movie that took home TFF's People Choice Awards and Top Gun: Maverick was the film who managed to attract masses during its extended run in theatres. Why is this important? Because every member of the Academy votes for every category when it comes to picking winners and these appealing "crowd pleasers" are the ones that benefit from that system - but the guild awards are also an indicator of a branches love for it, so Everything Everywhere All At Once seems to check all the major boxes here. Still, I believe there are 5 serious contenders in the running for Best Picture, with a clear frontrunner.

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