It's only April, but it's time to make the very first (blind) Oscar predictions. The 76th edition of Cannes Film Festival marks the start of the award-playing movies of this year's award season - the event takes place from May 16th to 27th, 2023 - and it is expected to show the world the new works from Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) (not official yet), Wes Anderson (Asteroid City) or the Johnny Depp starring vehicle Jeanne Du Barry (the selected movie for the Opening Night).
Still, Sundance Film Festival, SXSW and Berlinale have already launched some award-deserving features that include A Thousand and One (the Sundance champion), Ben Affleck's Air or the latest A24 drama Past Lives - all three received widespread critical acclaim! Other much antecipated movies will only be released by the Fall film festival season (or even Christmas season), but I believe Oppenheimer, Dune: Part II, the musical adaptation of The Color Purple or Universal's The Bikeriders can be major contenders across the board. Barbie could also break some boundaries considering the early buzz around how great Gerwig & Baumbach's screenplay is and the epic movie trailer - maybe some comedy gold here? Koreeda's Monster can be the "international film" pick to get acclaim across the board... or maybe not! Early foreign favorites don't always triumph awards-wise like A Separation or Decision To Leave, but the trend of having awards bodies embracing international films more sure benefits the highly antecipated drama.
So, here are my blind predictions for each category, followed by a brief comment about each one:
My biggest questions here are: will Dune: Part II be as great as the first one?; will Focus Features push A Thousand and One or will the distributor go for Asteroid City (or maybe both)?; can Past Lives keep the buzz until the end of the year since there's a lot of love for it but not the same level of enthusiasm like (let's say) Everything Everywhere All At Once last year?; is Barbie that special to break the Best Picture lineup - a future cult movie and/or a future Oscar movie?; will there be an animated feature nominated this year considering How Do You Live? and Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse are both coming this year?. So many questions... Is Asteroid City a Wes Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel/Moonrise Kingdom level or The French Dispatch level? And what about David Fincher's Killer? A Gone Girl type or A Girl With the Dragon Tattoo-esque awards-wise that might benefit from the 10 slots expansion?
Can the AMPAS redeem itself by nominating Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part II) and Ben Affleck (Air) considering they were victims of some of the most atrocious Best Director snubs in Oscar history? Is Koreeda the "international name" to be in the final five slot? No female director this year (again) despite the early love for Past Lives and A Thousand and One? Hope they can get traction!
The Best Actress category is shaping like a competitive one, with many POC contenders, a legend's comeback and a hand full of big stars. Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One) and Greta Lee (Past Lives) are the only ones who have been already seen, both getting great reviews (with Taylor getting some truly enthusiastic ones), but we'll have both Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) and Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night) reprising their Broadway roles that earned them great praise back then (with Lange even winning a Tony). But I believe this category will have some already Academy Award nominees (it seems unlikely to have a lineup mostly of first-time nominees - Natalie Portman in Todd Hayne's May December (we will see how Cannes receives the movie, but it is a drama and Portman is an excellent dramatic performer); Margot Robbie in Greta Gerwig's Barbie (it might sound silly at first, but Robbie is the "it girl" of the moment in Hollywood, she has the talent and Greta Gerwig writes and directs this one... never forget her two first movies did great with the AMPAS); Scarlett Johansson in Wes Anderson's Asteroid City (a comedic performance always struggles with the Academy and Anderson has never been able to generate an acting Oscar nomination for a member of his AMAZING casts, but she is a big star and she has already broken her Oscar curse, so maybe...); Jodie Comer is up for The Bikeriders and she has been in a sweet spot recently - maybe a successful transition for TV (and stage) to movies?; Penélope Cruz got a lot of praise in last year's edition of Venice Film Festival for L'immensità, but buzz has been kinda mute these days; and what about Sidney Sweeney for Reality?. Could Joanna Scanlan (After Love) land in Oscar conversation following her BAFTA win now that her movie found an US distributor?
Can Johnny Depp have a comeback narrative after years and years of trial both on court and social media? Can Wes Anderson finally generate an acting nomination for one of the actors of his larger-than-life all star cast? Can Jessica Lange be back to the Oscar talk? And what about the possibility of having a POC trio of actresses in the Best Actress lineup (with Teyana Taylor already collecting huge raves for her dramatic turn) - too progressive for the AMPAS which had the same opportunity this past year? Will Viola Davis capitalize from her The Woman King Oscar snub? And can Barbie be also an awards-vehicle for Margot Robbie and/or Ryan Gosling?
Open to discussion.
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