With the announcement of the TIFF lineup, I believe it's time to look at the current state of the race according to what each big distributor has on its plate. Of course there will be movies without a distributor that will be picked during Fall film festival season that are not being considered here (like Elliot Page's starring vehicle Close to You, Kristin Scott Thomas directorial debut North Star or Michel Franco's Memory) and they might actually shake the Oscar predictions of Oscar predictions folks.
The thing is... with the recent WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, I believe this year's early releases might actually benefit from the lack of promotional campaigns (specially from actors, which always boost the movies' profiles). Let's not forget this is a war against the billion-dollar studio-system and not against the independent/auteur films
Past Lives: After winning rave reviews in Sundance Film Festival and Berlin International Film Festival (where it was in competition for the Golden Bear), Celine Song's Past Lives managed to have a successful box-office performance during the Summer season. While it might seem like modest numbers, it was a low-budget film and it made a very decent amount of money for indie/auteur films standards. It is hailed as the best film of the year (so far) for many film lovers and I believe A24 is paying attention to the hype around Past Lives. I believe it would be championed as A24's top priority for the awards season... but there's another one...!
The Zone of Interest: One of the sensations of this year's Cannes Film Festival, Jonathan Glazer's follow-up to Under the Skin took home the Grand Prize of the Festival, the FIPRESCI Prize and the Cannes Soundtrack Award for Mica Levi (and it also competed for the Palme d'Or) and it might emerge as the more prestigious option of A24's plate for this year's award season. Critics raved The Zone of Interest, but some also noted the less acessible tone of this one. Could A24 go for an awarded Cannes entry or for a beloved romantic indie like Past Lives? But Holocaust and WWII are Oscar magnets and Glazer's latest is about a family living right next to the atrocities of Auschwitz-Birkenau...! Considering their strategy during last awards season... I think both will be pushed for Oscar noms purposes, but then A24 will only focus on one of them in order to get a couple of wins!
Priscilla: Sofia Coppola isn't an Oscar magnet, but she does present quality auteur cinema with her highly distinctive voice. Her last Oscar winning film was Marie Antoinette (2006), which took home Best Costume Design, but we have to go back to Lost In Translation (2003) to find her only movie that was able to crack in the above the line fields. As for Priscilla, last year's Elvis awards attention do hurt Priscilla's - who wants to award a similar story about the same characters? Still, considering what the trailer shows, I think it might have a chance in the Costume Design, Production Design and Makeup & Hair categories... and Best Adapted Screenplay for Coppola's writing maybe. Not an across the board contender, but I still a contender.
Air: An early box-office success about Nike's pursuit of Michael Jordan for a marketing campaign that also earned a lot of critical praise. Air is an old-school sports comedy/drama and it is quite effective cinematic-wise. It's lovely and audiences went to see it... and Amazon was smart enough to keep it in theaters for a long time before having it on Prime, which means the distributor might aknowledge the movie's award potential. Despite most people don't consider it to be the best movie of the year, I believe it is lovely enough and with the right campaign it can do quite good with the more traditional members of the AMPAS. A contender for the above de line categories - Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Chris Messina), Supporting Actress (Viola Davis) and Best Original Screenplay - plus Best Editing. Let's see how it plays at the end of the year... it really was an early release!
Saltburn: The next film from Promising Young Woman's director Emerald Fennell will open in November after its world première at Telluride Film Festival. The plot seems a bit reminiscent of The Talented Mr. Ripley, but it is also a satire about social privilege and also a story about obsession. With the talented (and freshly Oscar nominated) Barry Kheogan taking on the leading role and with Jacob Elordi (one of the "it boys" of the moment), Saltburn could look like an average movie with not big awards prospects, but Fennell has already showed her magic with Promising Young Woman and she even won an Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay for it. Still, Amazon is one of the big companies that has officially moved a big release from its 2023 plate due to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes - Challengers, the starring vehicle for Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor will no longer be the opening film of Venice Film Festival 2023 and it will be released in April, 2024. Will Saltburn also be affected? The film festival release seems assured, but could it work for the marketing and award campaign teams to launch it without the presence of Kheogan and Elordi (and Fennell as the screenwriter)? This one seems shaky.
Killers of the Flower Moon: The long-awaited film from American master Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon was made with enthusiastic rave reviews at Cannes Film Festival and it is set for a limited October release, right before the real awards conversation starts. It is a movie Apple has already intended to release last year hoping for some Oscar gold after the CODA triumph back in 2022 - so I believe they will stick with last year's plan. Considering the reviews... it will be a contender in all categories across the board. An epic from a legendary director that was met with raves during the world's most important film festival? Sure Apple will champion this one!
Napoleon: Ridley Scott will also be back in theaters and he brings a biopic about Napoleon. The director is both "hit and miss" in terms of quality cinema and he's also "hit and miss" with the awards season. The trailer does look good and Joaquin Phoenix is always a reliable actor, but Scott's narrative approach often fails. Will this be another House of Gucci for Scott? Or will it ressemble the epicness of Gladiator? I believe Apple will wait and see how it fares with both critics and audiences. Right now, I would have it contending for a couple of below the line categories like Production Design and Costume Design. Will the strike affect this release? I believe Napoleon is not a standard movie that brings audiences to movie theaters instantly and it needs its actors to promote it (the stars Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby). I would not be surprised if this one gets postponed.
Asteroid City: Wes Anderson's latest is regarded both as his best film and one of his weakest efforts... still it has some very passionate fans and it is a box-office success in the independent / arthouse market - in its limited opening weekend, it made $853,382 from only 6 theaters, with a per-venue average of $142,230, which was the best total since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the largest since La La Land (2016). So, what will Focus Features do? With an all-star cast and a director that holds a prestigious reputation in the film industry, I believe Focus will campaign for Asteroid City, specially if The Holdovers doesn't meet the high expectations of Oscar folks. There's a market for auteur pieces and Asteroid City is a champion in that league. Plus, it is a worthy contender both above and below the line, which only boots the movie's chances in the Best Picture race (by getting the admiration/support of different branches).
The Holdovers: Last time Alexander Payne and Paul Giamatti partned was almost 20 years ago for the incredible Sideways (2004), which solidified Payne's status as one of the best directors/writers in Hollywood by the time - his following efforts The Descendants and Nebraska also helped in the following years. But things didn't go well for Payne in the last couple of years: Downsizing (2017) was not well-received and he even faced rape allegations around 2018. So, where does Payne's reputation stands at this point? The Holdovers' trailers shows Giamatti in his comedic genius mode and Da'Vine Joy Randolph also seems to have a very soulful character, but can it be just a Christmas movie? It's one of those movies I really have to wait and see, because I don't see big potential besides the acting categories. It will get a TIFF premiere and then an October limited release and it seems the strikes aren't changing Focus distribution plans for this one - is it that good for Focus to keep the wheel going for this one? For me, a Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress contenders and maybe a Best Original Screenplay one too.
Anatomie d'une chute: The Palme d'Or winner of this year's edition of Cannes Film Festival was met with widespread critical acclaim and Neon sure acquired it with the intention to have it as an awards horse. The movie seems to have some appeal outside of the Best International Film category (for which France has to submit it), like Best Director (considering the actual trend for the directors branch to nominate at least one international auteur these days), Best Actress (Sandra Hüller got all those rave reviews and she was refused a Best Actress prize due to the new award attribution policy of this year's jury), Best Original Screenplay (the writers branch has no issues about going for non-English screenplays) and it might well nab a Best Picture nod (considering the AMPAS is getting more diverse, with a lot of international members that are able to love a non traditional English-spoken picture). The TIFF showing and the limited October US release show Neon intends to champion this one.
Ferrari: A recent acquisition by Neon... Michael Mann's biopic about Enzo Ferrari was already picked and it was selected to compete for the Golden Lion at this year's edition of Venice Film Festival. By the time Neon picked it, I worried this would put Anatomie d'une chute aside, which might... but I then saw it as a viable option in case Anatomie doesn't get selected by France as its International Film submission (which would decrease its Oscar chances in general). Still, I'm not totally optimistic about Ferrari - sure Driver looks great, but will audiences and critics bite this one? This movie features so many Hollywood actors playing italians that I fear it might be another House of Gucci and that it might end-up being critized by the casting choices. I am cautious about this one - but I believe it would be an instant contender for Best Actor (Adam Driver), Makeup & Hair (aging makeup, biopic) and maybe Sound if there are showy scenes with Ferrari cars... or will it be scene as a return to form by Mann and it contends for Best Picture and Best Director? "Rise like a phoenix" narratives still sell in Hollywood.
May December: It competed for Cannes' Palme d'Or and now it is heading to New York Film Festival... which means Netflix is clearly pushing this one. It is yet to have its release in the US, but considering the reviews it got in France back in the day, May December might be a contender in the acting categories (Portman, Moore and Melton) and screenplay and Best Picture as well. Todd Haynes' last two directorial efforts weren't met with the same praise as this one, but he's also the man behind Away From Heaven, Carol or Mildred Piece TV mini series... The high profiles of Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore will keep this one in the conversation, but the ladies will need to promote it so May December can turn into a buzzy awards player, because it is just a title from Cannes right now and it doesn't have box-office numbers that indicate people went to see it.
The Killer: Early word on David Fincher's upcoming film is quite enthusiastic and it has just made the Venice Film Festival lineup. His "killer films" don't fare that good with the AMPAS, but they always manage to get some recognition here and there. I don't say it's going to nab Best Picture (it sure doesn't delve in the same territory as Mank, The Social Network or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), but I don't think it will get a sole nod like Gone Girl. I feel it can get some love in the way Fincher's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo got back in 2010/11 awards season. Michael Fassbender and Tilda Swinton sure make for a reliable acting duo and Fincher's movie always craft amazing sound works, outstanding scores (this one is by Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross) and some nice cinematography, so I am expecting a combo of acting + a couple of techs + maybe Best Adapted Screenplay. At least, Oscar voters like male psychopaths/killers better than female ones and this one is going to compete for the Golden Lion at Venice Film Festival (an usual first stop in Netflix's awards campaign).
Next Goal Wins: The long-waited Taika Waititi project, it follows the (terrible) American Samoa soccer team and Thomas Rogen, who was tasked with the team's training. It's another smaller scale film project for Waititi in the middle of his ventures in the super hero extravaganza productions - like Best Picture nominee Jojo Rabbit (2019) - and the trailer makes it look good, smart and sweet. With a TIFF premiere and then a November release, it seems Searchlight/Disney is placing everything to have it as its prizes vehicle during the awards season. Michael Fassbender sure is a reliable actor and I am expecting good reviews for his performance, but my eye really is in Kaimana, who plays Jaiyah, the first non-binary player to compete in a men's FIFA World Cup qualifier. Still, Disney might well be the biggest villain in the SAG-AFTRA & WGA strikes... I could see Next Goal Wins either being delayed for the executives' order or having people/industry awards boycott this movie.
Poor Things: Lanthimos last movie was an Oscar banger (The Favourite) and he's back with Emma Stone for a weird comedy-drama. The trailer looks gorgeous: Stone seems amazing in it as so looks Mark Ruffalo, the production design, costume design and makeup departments also seem to have a great showcase here and the score sounds quite catchy... Considering there are Lanthimos in the directing chair and Tony McNamara wrote the screenplay, Poor Things seems to have all the ingredients to be an Oscar contender across the board. The Venice Film Festival premiere (this movie is also in the run for the Golden Lion) makes for the perfect timing to build awards buzz and the December release is a good date to remind award bodies about this movie... and it is also a strategic date in case Disney has to delay it to 2024!
Oppenheimer: It is destined to be a huge Oscar player. Not only it was released before the strikes, which means the whole all-star cast went around the globe promoting it with Christopher Nolan, but it is also a big critical and commercial success. The AMPAS has already loved movies set in the WWII times and this biopic which is also a meditation about regret, ego and the human ambition seems like a perfect pick considering the times we are living these days. A contender across the board... I have it as the frontrunner for Best Original Score, Best Sound and Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.) and to get nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Makeup & Hair and Best Visual Effects. And the incredible box-office numbers point Oppenheimer as the rare biopic blockbuster we haven't seen in years! The strikes won't affect this one: despite Universal and Disney being the big villains in the "AI actors" mad concept, I think Oppenheimer's buzz is too big to be stopped - it simply checks all the boxes!
Barbie: We can call it the Top Gun: Maverick of 2023, but in pink! I find Barbie's success to be somewhat expected, but I did not expect in such MASSIVE style. The box-office numbers are huge and it got some big rave reviews as well. Critics' praise, audiences love and a lot of money in the pockets... Barbie is a phenomenon and I am sure it will be a big player coming Oscar season. There's no way to deny its general appeal, so I believe Barbie is safe for a Best Picture nomination, with Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design and Best Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling) quite likely to happen. Best Original Song is also a possibility and Barbie has 3 (!!!) big songs with award potential: "What Was I Made For?", "Just Ken" and "Dance the Night" - which one will executives pick? All three? Two maybe? Or will they focus on one and push it for a win? A Best Actress nomination for Margot Robbie, a Best Director nod for Greta Gerwig and a nomination for Best Visual Effects are also strong possibilities, specially if the love for the movie keeps this strong coming awards season. No matter what, just like Oppenheimer, I think Barbie's train is impossible to stop on its way to the Oscars ceremony. She's everything today!
Dune: Part II & The Color Purple: I believe one of these will be delayed... I don't know which one, but I guess Dune: Part II might be the one considering its budget and the marketing campaign it demands in order to get good box-office numbers - and considering Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya are two of the most popular actors working these days, their presence is mandatory, so SAG-AFTRA strike must be over! But, at the same time, I think Dune: Part II would be able to hold on its own at the box-office, considering the box-office numbers of the previous installment and its cultural impact (considering the COVID outbreak at the time) I guess there are enough fans that wouldn't hesitate to pay a ticket for Part II. On the other hand, The Color Purple will not perform well at the box-office if the movie doesn't land a promotional campaign. While Dune would benefit from Chalamet and Zendaya presence on interviews, but it still would have a decent box-office performance, I consider the fact not many people being familiar with the existence of a musical adapation of The Color Purple would make it a box-office bomb. Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo and Halle Bailey are familiar (talented) names, but they are not theater selling names on their own (yet). Both movies can be contenders in every category across the board, but will Warner Bros. be able to handle 3 Oscar contenders? Considering the unexpected MASSIVE Barbie success both critically and commercially, WB should start thinking about which ones they will champion this coming award season. My guess is that they won't put Dune: Part II on hold because of a marketing strategy - the first one did a lot of money under unusual circumstances and not releasing Part II would also have costs. I believe The Color Purple will be the one to be delayed both because of the strike and because of Barbie's success.
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