Academy Awards 2024 nominees predictions: Best Supporting Actor (1st ROUND)

The Best Supporting Actor race seems strangely predictable at this point, which makes me doubt my own predictions. It's seems like a category made for estabilished white actors who feel overdue for a (first) win, with the exception of maybe Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon).

Robert Downey Jr. feels like the frontrunner to me thanks to Oppenheimer's global success both critically and the fact he's a hugely popular actor going back to great movies now that his MCU duties are done. The performance sure is showy enough and the fact he plays a charismatic political shark gives him a hand full of "Oscar clips", perfect for campaigning purposes. Next, I think Downey Jr.'s MCU scene partner Mark Ruffalo has estabilished himself as one of the early frontrunners for his performance in the Golden Lion-winning Poor Things - it's said to be a high wire comedic performance and let's not forget Ruffalo has already been nominated three times in this category at the Oscar... will the fourth be the charm? I believe  he has a really good shot this year! Third spot goes to Robert De Niro for his performance as  William King Hale in Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower. De Niro is at his best when playing dark characters and he delivers some of his best work in decades here, as a man that plays everyone around him like he is the Devil himself - and he's an acting veteran having a resurgence in recent years, so an Academy Award nomination would not only reward the performance, but also the career trajectory... and the AMPAS uses to be kind to its all-time favorites. I have Ryan Gosling taking the fourth seat - the actor was proclaimed the next Best Supporting Actor winner by the time Barbie had its hugely successful box-office run and while I can't deny the brilliance of his turn as Ken, I have to keep in mind the AMPAS doesn't go for this kind of silly comedic performances that often. Still, I believe the nomination is secure for Gosling - Warner Bros. will campaign Barbie, the audiences loved the movie and he has the support of the critics, who raved his performance. Finally, I had Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) for the 5th spot, but I am in denial: I don't believe the AMPAS will play that safe, now that the strike is over and distributors will play every trick they have to pull some noms. That being said, I believe Netflix will be able to land a nomination for Charles Melton for May December - not only he is said to deliver the best performance of the movie (wich means a lot, considering he shares the screen with the greats Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore), but Netflix campaigners have already proved they are great pulling nominations in the supporting categories (even if the actor/actress didn't make the big precursor awards shortlists like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley or Marina de Tavira). Melton's biggest challenge? The AMPAS often takes time to recognize male actors, specially if they are young and there are a lot of veteran "right here".

Another young actor who has received some great reviews is Dominic Sessa for his performance in Alexander Payne's The Holdovers. It's a breakthrough performance in a co-lead role that gravitates around Paul Giamatti's, making a Supporting Actor placing possible, which helps his chances... but just like Charles Melton, he is young and the Academy members are not kind to young male actors. Some claim he will pull a Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea) Oscar nomination... but I feel it might also go in a Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) route very easily. Next... I will risk throwing Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw) here - not only because he got some really solid reviews from critics for his performance as Kerry Von Erich in Sean Durkin's latest, but also because he's living a career momentum thanks to the success of The Bear TV series. A24's plate seems quite full this year already (Past Lives, The Zone of Interest and Priscilla are all contending for awards for sure) and I don't know where The Iron Claw will rank in the priorities list. Then, there's Sterling K. Brown in a comedic turn in TIFF's champion American Fiction - reviews praise his funny yet soulful turn as a man embracing his true sexuality later in his life, but the movie seems to be Jeffrey Wright's show front and center that this category is already stacked with bigger and more dramatic turns... still, sometimes crowd-pleasers are good at pulling Oscar nominations and Sterling K. Brown is already a well-known and respected name thanks to his work in This Is Us TV series and in indie drama Waves. I still have Glenn Howerton under serious consideration for his impressive turn as Jim Balsillie in BlackBerry - an early and acclaimed cinematic release (one of the best films of the year so far) that works as a starring vehicle for the Canadian actor. His performance ranks amongst the very best I've seen all year, but the early release and a not well-known distributor do not help his awards run. Finally, the last spot goes to Willem Dafoe in Poor Things - a praised acting turn that doesn't quite match the enthusiasm around Emma Stone and Mark Ruffalo performances, but it's possible it gets a coattail nomination thanks to the movie's buzz. Dafoe has already been nominated four times, but I feel his next nod should be a winning one... and I don't see the winning kind of reviews for his work in Poor Things. He set the bar really high!