The award season has started with the NBR and AFI naming their best movies of the year, two of the trifeca (NYFCC and LAFCA), the Golden Globe nominations and the Critics' Choice Awards nominations (the later being the one I consider the least relevant predict-wise, since it seems mostly based on the GoldDerby pundits predictions as an attempt to get a strong correlation with the final Oscar nominations) - so, it's time to publish my new Oscar nominations predictions for the 97th edition of the Academy Awards BEFORE the Golden Globes ceremony and the SAG Award and BAFTA Award nominees are announced!
The big distributors have already selected their "champions", the ones they will campaign aiming for the cinematic gold, which is an important element to have in mind, since it's extremely unlikely for a film to pop at the Oscars without a proper "behind the scene" promotion games. And there's the "Oscar type", a concept that has been changing lately, so I believe there are a lot of blurred lines this awards season.
The big distributors have already selected their "champions", the ones they will campaign aiming for the cinematic gold, which is an important element to have in mind, since it's extremely unlikely for a film to pop at the Oscars without a proper "behind the scene" promotion games. And there's the "Oscar type", a concept that has been changing lately, so I believe there are a lot of blurred lines this awards season.
BEST PICTURE
At this point, there are a couple of films that seem locked in the Best Picture shortlist: A24’s The Brutalist and Neon’s Anora seem locked in the top 2 spots, while Focus Features’ Conclave and Netflix’s Emilia Perez are sure bets too. Next, I would name Wicked (Universal’s box-office sensation, critical darling and social media favorite) to be the 5th most voted Best Picture nominee, only to be followed by Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part II (which lost some heat due to an early release and a strong showing of Oscar contenders in the Fall film festival season and end of the year releases). The following spots seem less clear to me: MUBI’s The Substance feels like rising considering the enthusiastic critical response during the critics associations prizes, the strong showing at the Golden Globes and the fact it got shortlisted in multiple BAFTA categories – which is a huge indicator of its Oscar chances if you had the impact of the film in social media, the great campaign around Demi Moore and the impressive box-office numbers. The eight spot goes to James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown, the Bob Dylan biopic that’s distributed by the campaigning machine Searchlight – with solid reviews, the star-power of Timothée Chalamet and a strong campaign, it feels like a really strong bet for Best Picture since the AMPAS can’t resist a good (male-led) biopic. Could the next spot go to Amazon’s Nickel Boys? A film festival darling, a tale of innocence and emotional wounds, with rave reviews and an inventive cinematography take? Well, it might well be since it showed in the right places since the beginning of the awards season: a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture – Drama; Independent Spirit Award nod for Best Feature; five Critics’ Choice Awards noms, including Best Picture; made the AFI top 10 films of 2024; it won Best Director at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards; and it got thirteen Black Reel Awards nominations, including Best Film.
Last spot… I am going a bit wild maybe, but I believe there will be a lot of vote splitting between Nosferatu (which could nab a Best Picture, Nightmare Alley style), MGM’s Challengers, Neon’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, the beloved animated feature The Wild Robot and Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine As Light… I am betting on Kapadia’s film, distributed by Janus Films, the foreign distributor that landed the multiple nominations for 2021’s Drive My Car and got a Best International Film nom for 2022’s EO – and considering the showing of Kapadia at the Golden Globes in the Best Director category, the multiple Cannes Film Festival prizes wins, multiple critics associations wins for Best Foreign Film and the fact it was not selected as the official submission of neither France or India might give it a boost, very Anatomy of a Fall style.
BEST DIRECTOR
Could Denis Villeneuve be snubed again despite the glorious directing work of Dune: Part II? Maybe. At this point, I consider Best Director to be one of the most competitive categories at the Oscars, just like last year’s. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) seems to be the frontrunner right now (in fact, I predict The Brutalist to have an Oscar performance similar to Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which means Best Director might well be the sole win for the movie), closely followed by Sean Baker (Anora), who has finally been appreciated by the big award bodies after multiple past cinematic gems. Third place, I will go for Edward Berger for Conclave, which not only makes sense because of the brilliant way he directed the Papal election drama, but also because he was overlooked by All Quiet on the Western Front even though the film took home 4 Oscars out of 9 nominations, including Best Picture – so, a nomination would also work as an apology. Fourth and fifth places seem anyone’s game for me and I can see multiple scenarios/combination here. Still, I am predicting Denis Villeneuve to get a spot on the shortlist and I will go for Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light) to grab the last one since the directors’ branch tends to go at least for one foreign-language film director.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
This category feels like a bloodbath! The only name I feel locked for a nomination is Mikey Madison for Anora, right now, not only because she leads one of the Best Picture favorites, but also because she benefits from the “breakthrough performance” factor the Academy members love. I am still confident about Angelina Jolie’s chances for Maria: despite missing the BAFTA shortlist, fact is Jolie has never been that popular with the British Academy, being nominated only once for acting (2008’s Changeling), and I am expecting her to get some SAG love next week (she’s quite popular amongst her peers and her phoenix reborn from the ashes will play good with the AMPAS). Third and rising is Demi Moore for The Substance, who was able to chance her campaign narrative from a “deserving performance” to “a performance of a lifetime from a veteran actor who never got the right vehicle to receive her flowers” and I can see her being this season’s Mickey Rourke and ending-up as a viable contender for a win if she manages to be nominated. Next I will go for Nicole Kidman for Babygirl – not only she delivers one of her most intriguing and brave performances of her last 10 years, but 2024 was also the year of her AFI Life Achievement Award and social media has been celebrating her career since then. Plus, she won the prestigious Volpi Cup and the National Board of Review Award for Best Actress, key prizes that kinda overcome the fact she didn’t fare that well with critics association prizes who went for less celebrated actresses overall – and the fact she made the BAFTA shortlist shows the support she has from her peers. She’s lowkey one of the most important performers and hard-working actresses in Hollywood, which makes her extremely popular. I will stick the fifth spot to Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. A raved non-English language performance that met some deserving recognition in the international award bodies such as the Golden Globes, the LAFCA Award runner-up for Best Actress and a couple of critics associations prizes nods, Torres’ Oscar dreams got a big blow when she missed the BAFTA shortlist, but Sony has successfully led foreign language performances to Oscar recognition through the years (and I’m Still Here is a Best Internal Film finalist for Brazil which gives her visibility).
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody has the edge of delivering the best male performance of the year in The Brutalist, while Timothée Chalamet’s buzzy turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown is being mentioned as Brody’s biggest competition. Considering both star in very likely Best Picture nominees, I believe we will see these two going all the way in the Oscar season. They are locked. I also consider Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) to be locked as well – not only it feels he is overdue for a 3rd Oscar nomination, but the film is feeling like taking the lead in the Best Picture race, so a nod for Fiennes just seems inevitable. The previous frontrunner Colman Domingo might have lost the pole position, but I still think he is safe coming Academy Awards nominations announcement morning – he delivers a soulful performance in an acclaimed indie and he secured a nomination from all the big precursor awards and he has already gotten the Academy’s love last year (and sometimes it’s just a matter of getting the 1st nod). The fifth place is a head-scratcher: I believe it will be Sebastian Stan’s for The Apprentice, since Academy members love a biopic, but will he get it for a biopic about Donald Trump? Plus, it might happen Stan doesn’t land a nod due to vote splitting since he also has A Different Man in the awards conversation (his best performance if you ask me). If Stan wins the Golden Globe for A Different Man, then I believe we might have him getting snubed as some voters might change their vote to A24’s exquisite dark comedy about identity.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Ariana Grande is the big magnet of Wicked, surprising both audiences and critics with her comedic timing and dramatic chops also - it's the kind "she was made for this role" star-making performance and she delivers movie magic. A co-lead, but category fraud pays off! Another performance that seems locked is Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Perez as she is the clear MVP and the movie has been in every award ceremony these days. Both locked. Then there's Felicity Jones for The Brutalist in the traditional Oscar baity role of "the wife of a genius" and critics says she really is great in it. Despite missing some awards nods, she has been mentioned enough - Golden Globe and Critics' Choice nods and BAFTA longlist are all checked. Next, Isabella Rossellini might have landed the awards vehicle of her career in Conclave - a truly supporting part, a fine performance and a big Oscar player make for a rock-solid scenario for what feels like a career-crowning nomination for the daughter of Ingrid Bergman. The fifth spot I expect it to go to a raved performance from a Best Picture nominee that got a late release: A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro, not only because she plays Joan Baez but mostly because the AMPAS loves a biopic's supporting lady (and this one is being campaigned by Searchlight).
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) both non-Oscar nominated actors who deliver the best performances of their film careers are the frontrunners and they are competitive for a win. A Complete Unknown's run has been impressive considering the late release and the low expectations around the movie, but the movie managed to impress way beyond Timothée Chalamet and now we also have Edward Norton back to the awards game and I consider him to be quite solid considering the reviews and his status in the movie industry. Next, I say Yura Borisov (Anora) is in a sweet spot thanks to the love around the movie and his character (the most likeable of them all). Last spot goes to Clarence Maclin, who's amazing in Sing Sing and he more than holds his own alongside Colman Domingo, making for an award-worthy turn that has been receiving some recognition amongst the critics associations prizes and indie awards bodies. Plus, it is almost impossible to dissociate Maclin from Domingo and it might be his best card play.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIR
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
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