- BEST PICTURE
- BEST DIRECTOR
- BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
- BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Madigan is actually the frontrunner after winning the Actor Award (formely SAG) and the Critics’ Choices besides a big couple of critics prizes, but Weapons is a horror movie and it didn’t land any other nomination across the board - the last actress to achieve a Best Supporting Actress win as the sole nominee of her movie was Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) and that win happened because Kate Winslet was placed in Best Actress in a Leading Role for The Reader (and she spent the whole awards season taking Best Supporting Actress prizes for that performance)… That’s why I am predicting Teyana Taylor to win for the Best Picture buzzy One Battle After Another - she has only won the Golden Globe (she’s actually the only nominee to have been nominated for all the precursors) but she dominates the very beginning of OBAA as the fiery, complex and seductive Perfidia Beverly Hills... the kind of character that stays with audiences and ignites the screen. BAFTA winner Mosaku is also a big player here not only because she's truly good or her character is the heart and soul of the movie, but also because Sinners peaked at the right time!
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
What felt like a wide-open Oscar race, became way clearer after Sean Penn won both BAFTA and the Actor Award for Best Actor in a Supporting Role (prizes from two awards bodies whose members are also Academy members) for his turn in the Best Picture favorite One Battle After Another. As for Benicio del Toro... he dominated the critics prizes and Jacob Elordi won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor. Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe, but the Academy is not composed by critics or press members...! Delroy Lindo (Sinners) made it to the final shortlist without an individual nomination from the big precursors for a key and showy part. That said and considering the AMPAS loves a villain… I believe Penn is destined to win! Unless voters think three wins is too much for Penn and they’ll go for “it’s finally his moment” and give it to Skarsgård (for a role some members can relate) or maybe for Penn's co-star del Toro, who has a much more sympathetic character with some scene-stealing (and truly remarkable) moments.
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
It’s gonna be KPop Demon Hunters… No other animated feature has achieved the level of cultural relevance Netflix’s latest hit – plus, it’s a welcome change from the usual Disney-rooted material that often wins this category.
- BEST CASTING
First year in this category that honors the casting director… but my perception is that people are taking it as an Ensemble Acting prize… So… My question is: how are Academy members seeing this award? Personally, I believe people are going both ways: a respected casting director (Maisler) who already has Marriage Story and Dune, Best Casting noms at the BAFTA and an incredible ensemble performance in Sinners. Not to count out Nina Gold for Hamnet (also very well-known in the industry for 1917, Game of Thrones, Conclave or Slow Horses TV series). Considering how surprising it was to have The Secret Agent breaking this category right in the first year, I won’t count it out as well, because its ensemble cast of practically unknowns in Hollywood is just impressive.
- BEST EDITING
Marty Supreme and F1 are awesomely edited and in a normal year they would be easy frontrunners, but the car chase scene in One Battle After Another just kills the competition and it has been collecting all the prizes in this field.
- BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I feel this is a 3 way kinda unpredictable race: One Battle After Another shocked me with wins at BAFTA, ASC and BSC, which makes me feel like it has the edge during voting period and it makes Michael Bauman the theorical frontrunner here; there’s also Sinners, the early frontrunner, which crafts a beautiful cinematography, with beautiful light/shadow balance and perfect colors, and Autumn Durald Arkapaw could make history as the first woman (and first woman of color) to win this category; and there’s Adolpho Veloso for Train Dreams, one of the most beautifully shot films of the year with a passionate fanbase, a CCA and an Independent Spirit Award for Best Cinematography under its belt. No contender wins an Oscar without BAFTA, ASC and BSC since 2011’s Hugo, which puts OBAA in the lead… but I feel so much passion for Train Dreams that I will go “no g*ts no glory” here and predict Veloso here
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
This is a category that I feel that can surprise us coming Oscar night: it’s just foolish not to predict the magnificient Frankenstein, but I could see Oscar voters going for Hamnet also since the Globe theatre scene is so well-done and it carries so much emotional weight that I feel AMPAS members might feel compelled to go for it. It’s a far more modest production work than Frankenstein, but it is as rich in meaning. Sinners could also sneak here, but I feel it more as a dark horse. Marty Supreme’s production design and set decoration is genius and I feel it has been undervalued during awards season, but I don’t think it is going to win. As for OBAA…. I was shocked about this nomination at first, but it’s actually amazing. Still, Netflix has been campaigning, and Frankenstein is the showiest of them all - it's a work that pops-up even at the eyes of those who don't pay enough attention to detail.
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Avatar: Fire and Ash was actually an inspired and daring pick for Best Costume Design. Marty Supreme's nostalgic fashion style really is a vibe and Gwyneth Paltrow steals the scene with her looks. Malgosia Turzanska brings historical accuracy but also storytelling through the use of colors in Hamnet. Oscar winner Ruth E. Carter just kills it with beautiful costume design work in Sinners… All amazing achievements in costume design, but they can’t stop Kate Hawley from winning the Oscar for Frankenstein. Her work here is about strong colors, intriguing patterns, Gothic style with a classy and eye-popping twist that matches del Toro’s visual opulence perfectly. She has been collecting all the big awards of the season and she will have a victorious Oscar night.
- BEST MAKEUP & HAIR
While Frankenstein doesn’t feature my favorite makeup work of the year – that personal honour goes to The Ugly Stepsister with the bloody Sinners coming as a close second – there’s no denying about the power of a charismatic character that is made of makeup work that completely transformed an actor. As Frankenstein (the character) takes central stage during the movie, so it does the makeup work, making it a perfect spotlight for Hill, Samuel and Furey’s talents. It took home CCA, BAFTA and the make-up prosthetics prize from the Make-Up And Hair Styling Guild and it is nominated for Best Picture. I could see a case where Sinners wins here (it won Best Period and/or Character Make-Up and also Best Period and/or Character Hair Styling from the make-up guild), but considering how loud Frankenstein screams MAKEUP (and how , I think it’s unlikely that Oscar voters will look elsewhere.
- BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Could James Cameron's Avatar; Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects and share LOTRs record for a franchise with the most VFX wins at the Oscars? Well... all three Lord of the Rings movies got a Best Picture nom (with The Return of the King winning it) while Avatar 3 missed there. Could Sinners upset? The Academy tends to favour nominees who are also running for Best Picture, with only Ex-Machina (2015) winning this category over Best Picture players since 2000. Or could actually be F1? Sure Avatar’s BAFTA + CC + Visual Effects Society Awards1 for Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature (and others) is a deadly combo, but both Sinners got Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects In A Photoreal Feature and F1 won Outstanding Compositing & Lighting In A Feature at VES Awards, so… Plus, since I am sensing a bit of an Avatar fatigue, my prediction goes for Sinners!
- BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Sinners has the best original score, but Jonny Greenwood’s score for One Battle After Another comes close… Still, considering how music driven the narrative of Sinners is, I feel it puts Ludwig Goransson’s work in the spotlight. Interesting how people also associate Hamnet’s biggest emotional moments with beautifully scored scenes and I wouldn’t be shocked if Max Richter pulls a surprise win – if voters want to give Hamnet one more win besides Best Actress, it could well be the field.
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I feel like I am throwing an easy category to predict into the air or maybe it’s just “Golden” fatigue combined with a lot of Sinners momentum during the Oscar voting period, but I feel “I Lied to You” can really end-up as the winner for Best Original Song. Not only “I Lied to You” plays an important part in the narrative as the song that attracts the vampires to the party, but the whole scene where it plays it’s simply memorable and one of the most well-directed cinematic moments of the year as spirits from the past and the future play and dance with Sammy and the party guests and set the barn on fire. It’s a moment that’s a delight for both ears and the eyes. Still… “Golden” also plays a huge part in KPop Demon Hunters narrative and it has had the same awards path as “Shallow” or “Let It Go”, so… a "Golden" win kinda feels inevitable despite "I Lied to You" being a major spoiler (and a worthy one).
- BEST SOUND
The dad movie of the year – it seems unlikely to me that F1 goes home empty handed when it appeals to a demographic that won’t find the other nominees as interesting as this one. It could be a technical easily won by Sinners, since music takes such an important stage in Coogler’s latest, but we are talking about the same voters that gave The Zone of Interest one of the best wins in Sound ever, so… Could Sirât (the best sound mixed movie of the year) actually pull a win here? It would be the Godzilla Minus One of Best Sound. I think the Academy members will try to push for their favorites and considering how sound is such an important part of F1 race scenes (and it has just won BAFTA for it), my pick goes with F1. It’s this year’s Top Gun: Maverick!
- SHORTS CATEGORIES AND BEST DOCUMENTARY
The short categories have always been quite hit or miss with me, because there are few big precursor that indicate what could be the AMPAS intentions - my picks are solely based on my perception when I watched them. Having watched all the shorts, I must say: All the Empty Rooms was the one who left me thinking about it the most from the Best Documentary Short Film slate and I believe voters will feel the same and go for it as well; A Friend of Dorothy is a luminous tearjerker that can be manipulative sometimes, but I think its charming nature and irresistible leads could please Oscar voters better than the dystopian queer drama Two People Exchanging Saliva / Deux personnes échangeant de la salive (my personal favorite from the Best Live Action Short Film lineup), but the thing is Saliva is distributed by Canal + and The New Yorker, while Dorothy is self distributed... considering some voters might not have easy access to A Friend of Dorothy, I predict Two People Exchanging Saliva to win here; as for my pick for Best Animated Short Film... Papillon (Butterfly) is said to be a favorite, but I found it difficult to love the animation personally, while The Girl Who Cried Pearls was the perfect balance between beautiful animation craft and an emotionally ressonant tale. As for Best Documentary Feature Film... The Perfect Neighbor mirrors an inconvenient reality in America, it has been collecting tons of prizes during awards season and it has the powerful Netflix machine running a campaign... but Mr. Nobody Againts Putin still managed to win the BAFTA for Best Documentary - an important precursor since BAFTA has become a relevant predictor for the Oscar race in this category - and its anti-Putin moto sure will appeal to the same voters who gave Navalny (2022) and 20 Days in Mariupol (2023) the Oscar in this exact same category. Will it be too much? Well... I would say "yes", but the previously mentioned documentaries told the narrative of the leader of the political Russian opposition (Navalny) and the horrors of war in Uckraine (Mariupol), Mr. Nobody shows the world the story of a teacher who is not conformed with being a vessel for political propaganda as it states the importance of education for the younger ones - something that should be applied in Russia, USA and the whole world.
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