The Cannes Film Festival jury cannot award the Palme d'Or in combination with other prizes. However, acting and screenplay prizes can be combined with the Jury Prize, which can have more than one honoree - something that has already happened four times since 2019 (considering there was no Cannes Film Festival edtition in 2020) - and with the Grand Prix (despite being less common with this one because of the high level of prestige of winning the Grand Prix itself).
I think in order to try to predict, it's important to have in mind who are part of the jury:
- Park Chan-wook, South Korean filmmaker (Jury President).
- Diego Céspedes, Chilean filmmaker.
- Isaach de Bankolé, Ivorian actor.
- Paul Laverty, Irish-Scottish screenwriter.
- Demi Moore, American actress.
- Ruth Negga, Ethiopian-Irish actress.
- Stellan Skarsgård, Swedish actor.
- Laura Wandel, Belgian filmmaker.
- Chloé Zhao, Chinese filmmaker.
So, it's a mostly European jury, with some fresh voices, like Céspedes or Wandel, but it's a mostly "Hollywood friendly" group. Céspedes, Wandel, Zhao and Laverty are well-known for complex traditional dramas, Negga is well-known for a subtle yet powerful acting style, Skarsgård has done it all and Demi Moore uses to take on daring roles no matter the genre. As for Park Chan-wook... he might be the best "thriller director" these days and no one can come close to him in that craft. That being said (and judging by the reviews) I believe this jury might go for a drama with some thriller elements which leads me to some top contender for the Palme d'or: Minotaur, Paper Tiger and... Hope.
Considering the Jury Prize is destined to award original narrative takes and considering the sci-fi nature of Na Hong-jin's Hope, I bet this prize is destined to it, which leaves us with Andrey Zvyagintsev's Minotaur and James Gray's Paper Tiger. If Neon has Paper Tiger (a distributor that seems pretty focused on winning every Palme d'or since Parasite took the world by surprise back in 2019), truth is MUBI has become a dedicated niche distributor with a fair chair in the film festival circuit and Zvyagintsev is a Cannes darling (he took Best Screenplay back in 2014 with Leviathan and the Jury Prize in 2017 with Loveless) and winning the Palme would feel kinda natural. But this year marks the 6th run for the Palme d'or for James Gray, a record for an American filmmaker that has always left Cannes empty handed... with such a Hollywood-y jury, could this indie director finally earn his flowers?
And there are also Fatherland by Paweł Pawlikowski (MUBI) and 急に具合が悪くなる /All of a Sudden / Soudain by Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Neon), both from previous Cannes winners that also get early favoritism (Pawlikowski won Best Director for Cold War and Hamaguchi won Best Screenplay for Drive My Car)... With so many Cannes veterans eyeing the Palme while both Neon and MUBI seem to battle for the top prize, this feels unpredictable honestly. Still, I don't think these titles will go home empty handed.
There's also: Fjord from Romanian director Cristian Mungiu, starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, that also got rave reviews and I consider it a strong contender for a screenplay win; The Man I Love by Ira Sachs that got solid reception and career-best reviews for Rami Malek; I would also keep an eye on El ser querido / The Beloved which could easily sneak an acting win; AND there's what I consider to be the "French press dearest", Emmanuel Marre's Notre Salut / A Man of His Time, about Henri Marre who's willing to be complicit with a fascist regime in order to fight for a position for himself... a narrative that is said to be complex yet important.
At the very final run of Cannes Film Festival there's a potential winner emmerging La bola negra / The Black Ball by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi - a queer musical drama that is said to be something that recalls both The Hours and Evita, but it's said to be fresh and devastating as well... in a world where LGBTQ+ rights seem to be at stake, could the Cannes jury make a support statement through art? This late passion and enthusiasm around this title sure won't be home empty handed next Saturday but the question is: what will they give it? Considering its originality I say La bola negra is expected to be awarded the Jury Prize.
But the Cannes jury tends to love to spread the wealth and prestige, so... I wouldn't be shocked if even the favorites don't get the top prizes but make it in the other categories... or even in no category at all. The thing to predict a jury's pick is extremely hard but right now I go like this:
PALME D'OR: Minotaur, Andrey Zvyagintsev
GRAND PRIX: Paper Tiger, James Gray
DIRECTOR: Na Hong-jin, 호프 / Hope
JURY PRIZE: The Black Ball, Javier Calvo & Javier Ambrossi / Fatherland, Pawel Pawlikowski
FEMALE ACTING PERFORMANCE: Virginie Efira & Tao Okamoto, 急に具合が悪くなる / All of a Sudden
MALE ACTING PERFORMANCE: Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
SCREENPLAY: Notre Salut / A Man of His Time, Emmanuel Marre
If you ask me "Are you confident?", my answer is "No".
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