1.
Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Born: 13th December, 1929 - Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2010 - Best Supporting Actor for The Last Station (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1999 - The Insider
Oscar chances comment: Plummer is a lock in the Best Supporting Actor shortlist! In Beginners, he plays a dying old man who assumes his homossexuality after his wife's death - it's such a juicy role and Plummer plays the part beautifuly, in such a touching way. He has been getting the awards recognition that's needed in order to get an Oscar nod, he received the raves and his performance is unforgettable, so I think he's the front-runner of the Best Supporting Actor race and more than a nomination, he's in the run for a win!
2.
Albert Brooks for Drive
Born: 22nd July, 1947 - Beverly Hills, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1988 - Best Supporting Actor for Broadcast News (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Drive is, by far, one of the best movies of the year and Albert Brooks delivers one of the most delicious performances of the year in it. Playing a human version of The Devil helps in any Oscar acting race, since AMPAS members tend to love bad guys. He could be a strong contender for an Oscar win, but he missed an important SAG Award nomination... He will get nominated, for sure - he's just too good (and too evil) to not be recognized.
3.
Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn
Born: 10th December, 1960 - Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1990 - Best Leading Actor for Henry V (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1995 - Othello
Oscar chances comment: While My Week With Marilyn belongs to Michelle Williams, who carries the movie with her flawless portray of Marilyn Monroe, Kenneth Branagh is doing well in the awards season and he's getting a lot of buzz for his performance as Sir Laurence Olivier. The AMPAS loves when an actor portrays a cinema leggend and Branagh does it well and holds himself good enough alongside Williams, but will voters only pay attention to "Marilyn"? The Oscar buzz around Branagh is strong, so I think he will get an Oscar nomination, in spite of not delivering one of the best supporting performances of the year, in my opinion.
4.
Nick Nolte for Warrior
Born: 8th February, 1941 in Omaha, Nebraska, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1992 - Best Leading Actor for The Prince of Tides (nom); 1999 - Best Leading Actor for Affliction (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Nick Nolte shines in this year's less perfect version of The Fighter by portraying a man who lives with ghost from his past. It seems that the AMPAS loves to recognize movies about boxers and, specially, actors who plays boxers and Nolte portrays an alcoholic former boxer... juicy part! I can see him getting an easy Oscar nomination for his performance in Warrior, once he is having a very good awards season and got a lot of critical praise for his work.
5.
Patton Oswalt for Young Adult
Born: 27th January, 1969 - Portsmouth, Virginia, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Patton Oswalt is extremely funny and he can shine alongside Charlize Theron in Young Adult (which could be a really difficult task to every average comedy actor). He got a Critics' Choice Award of Best Supporting Actor nomination and the Oscar voters use to love Jason Reitman movies and the actors he directed in his movies, so Oswalt can be the man if the AMPAS wants a comedy representative in the Best Supporting Actor shortlist, but Young Adult isn't as raved as another Reitman movies were and Theron is clearly the magnet of the movie.
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6.
Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Born: 10th April, 1929 - Lund, Skåne län, Sweden
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1988 - Best Leading Actor for Pelle the Conqueror (nom);
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1973 - The Exorcist
Oscar chances comment: The movie didn't receive the critical acclaim Oscar folks were expecting, but people who didn't like it, simply loved Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and von Sydow's silent performance is high-quality acting, completely Oscar-worthy. So, if AMPAS voters really want to go for this movie, von Sydow has a nice chance in getting nominated, specially in a race where there are no 5 major front-runners.
7.
Jonah Hill for Moneyball
Born: December 20, 1983 - Los Angeles, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Oscar chances comment: Hill's performance is nothing special, but the Oscar buzz around Moneyball can do wonders for him and give him his first Oscar nomination. He holds himself nicely alongside Brad Pitt and the script gives him nice things to say, so he really has a chance, specially after a Golden Globe and a SAG Award noms.
8.
Ben Kingsley for Hugo
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1983 - Best Leading Actor for Gandhi (win); 1992 - Best Supporting Actor for Bugsy (nom); 2001 - Best Supporting Actor for Sexy Beast (nom); 2004 - Best Leading Actor for House of Sand and Fog (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1993 - Schindler's List
Oscar chances comment: Scorsese's latest is a lovely movie and it's a beautiful love letter to cinema and a major Oscar contender in the Best Picture race, so, if the AMPAS wants to recognize Hugo in the acting field, Kingsley seems the most likely member of the cast to get an Oscar nomination: a great performance from an Oscar darling!
9.
Andy Serkis for Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Born: April 20, 1964 - Ruislip, London, England, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2003 - The Lord of the Rings: the Return of the King
Oscar chances comment: Serkis' performance is not a traditional one - it's all about technology. While some may claim that a technology-mixed acting performance isn't likely to get Oscar recognition, I can see it happen for Serkis, specially in such a moving performance in such a critically acclaimed blockbuster like Rise of the Planet of the Apes (and he already got a Critics' Choice Award of Best Supporting Actor nomination).
10.
Viggo Mortensen for A Dangerous Method
Born: 20th October, 1958 - New York City, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2008 - Best Leading Actor for Eastern Promises (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2005 - A History of Violence; 2009 - The Road
Oscar chances comment: David Cronenberg isn't an "Oscar magnet" in the true meaning of the expression, but his directed actors tend to get some Oscar buzz and Mortensen is getting some for A Dangerous Method, specially after a Golden Globe nomination. The AMPAS loves when movie stars portray historical figures and Mortensen plays the leggendary Sigmund Freud in one of his most praised performances of his career.
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