1.
Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained
Born: November 11, 1974 - Hollywood, Los Angeles, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1994 - Best Supporting Actor for What's Eating Gilbert Grape (nom); 2005 - Best Leading Actor for The Aviator (nom); 2007 - Best Leading Actor for Blood Diamond (nom)
Oscar snubed performances: 2006 - The Departed; 2008 - Revolutionary Road
Oscar chances comment: With one of the most sucessful careers of today, DiCaprio may be considered the biggest movie star of his generation, but he never won an Oscar so far. To be honest, I don't think he already delivered that kind of Oscar-winning performance, but things may be changing for him once he landed the villain role of slave owning in Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained. He plays the evil plantation owner who has a collection of slaves and everybody knows how the Academy loves mean guys and Tarantino is great directing all his actors and I bet he gave Leo a big couple of great/memorable lines. Last year, DiCaprio didn't get an Oscar nomination for J. Edgar - maybe the AMPAS members decided to put their hopes on Django and wait one year in order to not just nominate him, but to give him the golden man. More than a talented drama actor, Leo is the guy from Titanic and one of the most popular actors worldwide.
2.
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Born: October 28, 1974 - San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2001 - Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator (nom); 2006 - Best Leading Actor for Walk the Line (nom)
Oscar snubed performances: 2008 - Two Lovers
Oscar chances comment: After some time retired from acting, the always controversial Joaquin Phoenix may have a hell of a comeback with Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master. Being cast alongside Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams is alreay a hell of a compliment, but, in my opinion, Phoenix is extremely talented and I believe the director gave him a meaty role in order to create some magic on-screen. The AMPAS loves a career-comeback, loves to apologize its children for bad behaviour and, let's be honest, Phoenix was "the rebel of Hollywood" a couple of years ago. I can see him getting a lot of critical support and audiences will like to see him nominated not only because he's a very capable performer, but also because he's a good-looking man. I keep saying he deserved a win for Gladiator (but I respect Benicio Del Toro's win!), maybe he will be in the running for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, this year.
3.
Guy Pearce for Lawless
Born: October 5, 1967 - Ely, Cambridgesire, England, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: 2000 - Memento; 2005 - The Preposition
Oscar chances comment: In my opinion, I see Guy Pearce as one of the most underrated actors in the recent industry. This man gets easily a part in great movies (Animal Kingdom and The King's Speech come to my mind right now) and he's a very talented actor, but it seems he keep being ignored by awards and some people, in general. Early reports say Pearce delivers the most showy performance in John Hillcoat's Lawless and let me say it pleases me a lot. Pearce and Hillcoat already worked together in The Preposition, so I believe the director knows exactly how to direct the actor in order to pull something even better than in their last effort together (Pearce was great in The Preposition). In Lawless, he plays one of the "bad guys" if you count the Bondurant brothers as angels fallen from the sky, so maybe Pearce will suffer from internal competition, since Oldman seems to have a showy part (but this one may be too short, according to early reports). Guy Pearce is a chamaleon, so Academy, look to his name and not only to his character, please!
4.
Garrett Hedlund for On the Road
Born: September 3, 1984 - Roseau, Minnesota, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: none
Oscar chances comment: People aren't taking Garrett Hedlund very seriously - I mean, he isn't under the radar - but On the Road movie trailer suggests this young man may have a lot to promise. Walter Salles is a great director with a exquisite vision of acting, pulling great performances from its ensemble cast and Hedlund will be no exception, in my opinion. The role of Dean looks and sounds like a juicy part and if Hedlund delivers a great performance, I think he may have good chances for the breakthrough performance seat that sometimes appears in the Best Supporting Actor category. But he may suffer from category placement issues: in the book Dean is the co-lead alongside Sal Paradise (Sam Riley's character), but in the trailer, Hedlund's name appears first than Riley's, which may suggest the producers intentions when the awards seasons comes. In my opinion, being placed in the Supporting Actor category would only benefit him, once, at this time of the championship, the Leading Actor race looks already very competitive and we can't forget when the AMPAS tends to recognize young talents in the supporting categories.
5.
Sean Penn for The Gangster Squad
Born: August 17, 1960 - Santa Monica, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1996 - Best Leading Actor for Dead Man Walking (nom); 2000 - Best Leading Actor for Sweet and Lowdown (nom); 2002 - Best Leading Actor for I Am Sam (nom); 2004 - Best Leading Actor for Mystic River (win); 2009 - Best Leading Actor for Milk (win)
Oscar snubed performances: 1993 - Carlito's Way
Oscar chances comment: One of the most acclaimed actors of our time, Sean Penn never got a Best Supporting Actor nomination, but he plays a gangster in The Gangster Squad and, unless the movie will be a mess with a lot of movie stars, I believe Penn will be a scene-stealer villain. But my big concern here is that The Gangster Squad trailer doesn't make the movie that Oscar-looking, which may put Penn in trouble if we are talking about Oscar chances. The AMPAS loves villains, but this year there are a lot of "devilish" roles in more stylish, friendly movies than Zombieland's director upcoming one. Penn already has 2 Oscar wins under his belt, so we can't say he's overdue for another nomination or for another win (you know, that's one a Meryl Streep right!), so, I've my doubts about Penn chances...
6. Don Johnson for Django Unchained
Born: December 15, 1949 - Flat Creek, Missouri, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: none
Oscar chances comment: Early reports say Don Johnson's part is the second most showy one next to DiCaprio's... well, Johnson may not be known for his work on big-screen (comparing to his T.V. fame), but you never know: the AMPAS may be just impressed by his work in Django and you know how good Tarantino is while directing actors! He's a very charismatic actor, so I believe it won't be hard for him to be one of the movie's standouts and maybe the scene-stealer.
7. David Straitharn for Lincoln
Born: January 26, 1949 - San Francisco, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2006 - Best Supporting Actor for Good Night, and Good Luck (nom)
Oscar snubed performances: none
Oscar chances comment: In Steven Spielberg's directed biopic Lincoln, Straitharn plays Secretary of State William Seward, the close friend of Abraham Lincoln. There are comments saying that Straitharn has the second best role in the movie and since he was so good in Good Night, and Good Luck (another movie about politics) I truly believe in his Oscar chances this season. But, I can't forget Daniel Day-Lewis is leading what seems to be a performance-driven movie and I beleive there won't be that much screen-time for supporting players, so I hope Straitharn shines bright and steals some scenes from Mr. President.
8. Robert DeNiro for The Silver Linings Playbook
Born: August 17, 1943 - New York City, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1975 - Best Supporting Actor for The Godfather: Part II (win); 1977 - Best Leading Actor for Taxi Driver (nom); 1979 - Best Leading Actor for The Deer Hunter (nom); 1981 - Best Leading Actor for Raging Bull (win); 1991 - Best Leading Actor for Awakenings (nom); 1992 - Best Leading Actor for Cape Fear (nom)
Oscar snubed performances: 2000 - Meet the Parents
Oscar chances comment: DeNiro is a major acting reference for a lot of big actors, but he isn't in Oscar shortlist since 1992, mostly because he has been taken crappy projects to star. But this year, there are some Oscar hopes for him, once he's directed by David O. Russell in his upcoming The Silver Linings Playbook. The movie is a comedy, but DeNiro proved to be an amazing comedy actor in Meet the Parents and once he'll playing the father of a mentally disturbed man... talent + status + juicy role + good director = Oscar buzz
9. Russell Crowe for Les Misérables
Born: April 7, 1964 - Wellington, North Island, New Zealand
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2000 - Best Supporting Actor for The Insider (nom); 2001 - Best Leading Actor for Gladiator (win); 2002 - Best Leading Actor for A Beautiful Mind (nom)
Oscar snubed performances: 2005 - Cinderella Man
Oscar chances comment: Russell Crowe was a superstar in the 2000 - 2005 period (2010's Robin Hood doesn't count), where he lived the most critically-acclaimed moments of his career, but things seemed to slow down a little bit for him until he signed to be in Tom Hooper's adaptation of the musical Les Misérables. He plays Inspector Javert, which isnt' the meatiest role in the show, but Crowe is a magnificient actor and he knows how to play a character and impress... and if the movie gets universal critcal praise, I see some things happening for Crowe.
10. Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike
Born: November 4, 1969 - Uvalde, Texas, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: none
Oscar chances comment: "Academy Award nominee Matthew McConaughey" may sound like a joke, but after reading a comment in a forum and watching the movie trailer of Magic Mike, I was like "Why not?". If you have under your consideration that he's playing a stripper (and let's admit this guy has charm, no matter what we think), he's extremely charismatic (and so seems to be his character), he can deliver good comedic performances and that he's directed by Steven Soderbergh... I can see some Oscar chances for McConaughey, but the movie will have to collect raves and he must have memorable lines and scenes, in order to be taken seriously by Academy members.
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