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Academy Awards 2013 Best Picture nominees predictions: 3rd ROUND

1.
Argo


Director: Ben Affleck
Starring: Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston, John Goodman, Chris Messina, Kyle Chandler, Clea DuVall, Tate Donovan and Alan Arkin
Synopsis: "Based on true events, Argo chronicles the life-or-death covert operation to rescue six Americans, which unfolded behind the scenes of the Iran hostage crisis-the truth of which was unknown by the public for decades. On November 4, 1979, as the Iranian revolution reaches its boiling point, militants storm the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage. But, in the midst of the chaos, six Americans manage to slip away and find refuge in the home of the Canadian ambassador. Knowing it is only a matter of time before the six are found out and likely killed, a CIA "exfiltration" specialist named Tony Mendez (Ben Affleck) comes up with a risky plan to get them safely out of the country. A plan so incredible, it could only happen in the movies."

Ben Affleck's latest was released in October 12 and it already managed to become a box-office success, grossing over $60.5M and getting universal acclaim. Right now, Argo is seen as a lock in the Best Picture race, not only because of being a movie "about a fake movie that is a CIA mission, actually", but because it estabilished its director as more than just a promise in the art of directing. After the raved Gone Baby Gone and The Town, critics and audiences embraced Argo and it was considered one of the biggest sensations of this year's edition of Toronto International Film Festival. Considered "a crackerjack political thriller told with intelligence, great period detail and a surprising amount of nutty humor" (Todd McCarthy) and a "Best Picture contender proves to be a prime example of accomplished major studio filmmaking, and also a smart, crafty suspense-laden picture that should win critical plaudits across the board" (Peter Hammond) and featuring solid performances from a whole ensemble cast (that includes Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin and John Goodman, besides Affleck himself), this sounds like Best Picture Oscar-winning material to me, but there's a whole awards season to watch.


2.
Les Misérables


Director: Tom Hooper 
Starring: Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried, Eddie Redmayne, Samantha Barks, Helena Bonham Carter and Sasha Baron Cohen
Synopsis: "Set against the backdrop of 19th-century France, Les Misérables tells an enthralling story of broken dreams and unrequited love, passion, sacrifice and redemption-a timeless testament to the survival of the human spirit. Jackman plays ex-prisoner Jean Valjean, hunted for decades by the ruthless policeman Javert (Crowe) after he breaks parole. When Valjean agrees to care for factory worker Fantine's (Hathaway) young daughter, Cosette, their lives change forever."

The adaption of one of the greatest musical shows ever, Les Misérables has huge cinematic pedigree and it's an undeniable contender so far. Tom Hooper, the director of the Best Picture Oscar-winning The King's Speech, is the man behind the camera and he assembled great names for his adaptation of the musical epic. The Academy loves period pieces, loves a good musical and loves great performances and Les Misérables promises to provide all these "key-elements". Singing live will only benefit acting and connect audiences to the true soul of the story of Jean Valjean, Cosette and Fantine. It will be easy for people to fall in love with this musical, since the source material is simply great and all the stage productions are always successful and since it will be release during Christmas, I can see a box-office success that can easily turn into one of the most acclaimed movies of the year. Les Mis has everything to shine in the awards race and in Oscar voters' memory.


3.
Silver Linings Playbook


Director: David O. Russell
Starring: Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver, Julia Stiles and Chris Tucker
Synopsis:  "Life doesn't always go according to plan. Pat Solatano has lost everything - his house, his job, and his wife. He now finds himself living back with his mother and father after spending eight months in a state institution on a plea bargain. Pat is determined to rebuild his life, remain positive and reunite with his wife, despite the challenging circumstances of their separation. All Pat's parents want is for him to get back on his feet - and to share their family's obsession with the Philadelphia Eagles football team. When Pat meets Tiffany, a mysterious girl with problems of her own, things get complicated. Tiffany offers to help Pat reconnect with his wife, but only if he'll do something very important for her in return. As their deal plays out, an unexpected bond begins to form between them, and silver linings appear in both of their lives."

Winner of the People's Choice Award of Best Narrative Feature of Toronto International Film Festival, David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook is in one of the leading seats of the Best Picture race. Being the big winner of TIFF is one of the strongest indicators of Oscar recognition, since movies like La vita é bella, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, Precious and The King's Speech got plenty of Oscar love after winning the same prize in past editions. Silver Linings Playbook may not have the greatness of a "normal" Best Picture winner, but critics claim it has a heart and it is a very good comedy-drama that features the best performances of Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence's careers and marks the comeback of Robert De Niro to baity roles. With such a strong critical support and TIFF's big prize at home, David O. Russell's latest is an obvious future Best Picture Oscar nominee.


4.
Beasts of the Southern Wild


Director: Benh Zeitlin
Starring: Quvenzhané Wallis and Dwight Henry
Synopsis: "Hushpuppy, an intrepid six-year-old girl, lives with her father, Wink, in the Bathtub, a southern Delta community at the edge of the world. Wink's tough love prepares her for the unraveling of the universe; for a time when he's no longer there to protect her. When Wink contracts a mysterious illness, nature flies out of whack, temperatures rise, and the ice caps melt, unleashing an army of prehistoric creatures called aurochs. With the waters rising, the aurochs coming, and Wink's health fading, Hushpuppy goes in search of her lost mother."

Easily one of the most praised movies of the year so far, Beasts of the Southern Wild is the micro-budget cinematic sensation that seduced Sundance and took home the Grand Jury Prize - Dramatic. This love letter to childhood and innocence, Beasts emmerged early as the first serious Best Picture contender and the buzz keeps strong, but it will need a not of support from the critics associations awards and from Independent Spirit Awards in order to reach a nod in the top Oscar category, in spite of all the attention the movie is getting thanks to its leading lady performance - the miniature force of Nature Quvenzhané Wallis, who seems to have bright prospects in the Best Leading Actress category. No matter what, Beasts is already a winner, not because of its collection of film festivals' awards but because it proved that in order to make something triumphant and beautiful, you don't need much money, but a lot of imagination. 


5.
Life of Pi


Director: Ang Lee
Starring:  Suraj Sharma, Irrfan Khan and Adil Hussain
Synopsis: "Based on the best-selling novel by Yann Martel, is a magical adventure story centering on Pi Patel, the precocious son of a zoo keeper. Dwellers in Pondicherry, India, the family decides to move to Canada, hitching a ride on a huge freighter. After a shipwreck, Pi finds himself adrift in the Pacific Ocean on a 26-foot lifeboat with a zebra, a hyena, an orangutan and a 450-pound Bengal tiger named Richard Parker, all fighting for survival."

It may not be a perfect movie, since a big couple of critics reported some problems with the dialogue and structure, but Life of Pi is seen as a visual wonder, offering ashtonishing visions to audiences. Maybe the most spectacular movie directed by Ang Lee since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Lee's latest may be this year's Avatar: no gem of screenwriting, but something beautiful, artistically and technically speaking. The source material is a beloved novel and I smell a huge box-office performance for this one, mostly because of the impressive movie trailer and the novel's popularity, which will only benefit the movie's Oscar chances. The AMPAS tends to give a Best Picture nomination to movies who score a lot of nominations in other categories (Life of Pi seems to be well-positioned in the Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing and Best Original Score races) and since Lee is in good conditions to get his third nod as a director, Pi will have a seat in the Best Picture Oscar nominees shortlist, almost for sure.


6.
Lincoln


Director: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tommy Lee Jones, Jackie Earle Haley, Jared Harris, John Hawkes, Sally Field, David Strathairn and Hal Holbrook
Synopsis: "Steven Spielberg directs Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln," a revealing drama that focuses on the 16th President's tumultuous final months in office. In a nation divided by war and the strong winds of change, Lincoln pursues a course of action designed to end the war, unite the country and abolish slavery. With the moral courage and fierce determination to succeed, his choices during this critical moment will change the fate of generations to come."

Most Oscar folks are predicting a Best Picture nomination for Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, like it is something obvious, but, for some reason I've been cautious about this one, but it seems I've no reasons to do not include this one in my predictions. Early reviews from New York Film Festival and AFI Fest suggest that Lincoln is something "fascinating" from the worst point of view, emerging as a major award player this season. The presence of Daniel Day-Lewis per si is an indicator of the movie's good quality, since he's seen as one of the most demanding actors working in the industry these days, and having such an all-star supporting cast will just call the attention of the Oscar voters and maybe get a SAG Award of Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast to Lincoln (you know, it's an important award for Best Picture contenders). Spielberg is a gifted director and since Lincoln touches a theme like slavery, I smell an easy Best Picture nod for this one (let's think this way: if Spielberg's previous was about a horse and it got one, it seems impossible to ignore a biopic about a major political figure).


7.
The Sessions


Director: Ben Lewin
Starring: John Hawkes, Helen Hunt and William H. Macy
Synopsis: "At the age of 36, Mark O'Brien, a man who uses an iron lung, decides he no longer wishes to be a virgin. With the help of his therapist and his priest, he contacts Cheryl Cohen-Greene, a professional sex surrogate and a typical soccer mom with a house, a mortgage and a husband. Inspired by a true story, The Surrogate, follows the fascinating relationship which evolves between Cheryl and Mark as she takes him on his journey to manhood."

The movie's main focus may be around sex, but The Sessions may gain some love from the AMPAS members thanks to being inspired by a true story of a disabled man. Sexual content may not help, but if voters nominated a sexual-thriller like Black Swan (I know Swan was something very stylish, but it was all around Nina's sexuality development), I believe this one may be quite appealing thanks to its light aura and the charming performances from its leads. In fact, the movie was the winner of the Audience Award of Sundance Film Festival and took home a Special Jury Prize for Acting - Dramatic for ensemble acting, so maybe The Sessions screams more "Oscar!" than most predictions folks can see. Personally, I haven't seen this one yet, but I'm by the trailer and the Rotten Tomatoes score (94%), I believe it can be a good awards player this season and if it gets enough support from indie awards a nomination may become a reality.


8.
The Master


Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams
Synopsis:  "A striking portrait of drifters and seekers in post World War II America, Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master unfolds the journey of a Naval veteran (Joaquin Phoenix) who arrives home from war unsettled and uncertain of his future - until he is tantalized by The Cause and its charismatic leader (Philip Seymour Hoffman)."

Will this be one more Magnolia in PT Anderson's body of work? The Master was raved and it was a big sensation during Venice Film Festival, but, for some reason, it seems the Best Picture Oscar buzz went from "crazy" to "moderated yet respectful". The movie is an acting showcase for both Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman (and Amy Adams) and it is a fruit of a true directing genius, but will The Master get a Best Picture Oscar nomination? Well, there was a huge Oscar buzz around The Tree of Life when it won the Palme D'Or of Cannes Film Festival last year and then the buzz went softer and people started having doubts about its changes in the Big Race, but Malick's movie got the nod - and I believe The Master will get the vote from arthouse fans and be part of the shortlist, since it will please a very specific kind of audience that has some "representatives" inside the Academy.


9.
Amour


Director: Michael Haneke
Starring: Jean-Louis Trintignant, Emmanuelle Riva and Isabelle Huppert
Synopsis: "Georges and Anne are in their eighties. They are cultivated, retired music teachers. Their daughter, who is also a musician, lives abroad with her family. One day, Anne has an attack. The couple's bond of love is severely tested."

Well, personally, I think Amour is just "too European for the AMPAS". Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Oscar voters don't give value to European cinema, I'm just saying that they don't use to recognize movies that are less Hollywood-like in the Best Picture category. Since they expanded the Best Picture category to a possible maximum of ten nominees, there wasn't a single foreign-language film making part of the shortlist, not even the brilliant A Separation (that took home the golden man for Best Foreign Picture). Amour is Michael Haneke on top form (the same director who brought us Caché and The White Ribbon) and this movie is already making a huge impression in this early awards season: it took home this year's Palme D'Or of Cannes Film Festival and it got nominated for the European Film Award of Best European Film (between Best Director, Best European Actor and Best European Actress). The front-runner of this year's battle for the Best Foreign Picture Oscar, Amour will be the chosen of European cinema lovers, but it may not be enough for a Best Picture nomination...


10.
Zero Dark Thirty


Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Starring: Jessica Chastain, Joel Edgerton, Mark Strong, Edgar Ramirez, Ricky Sekhon, Jennifer Ehle, Chris Pratt, Kyle Chandler and Nina Arianda
Synopsis: "A chronicle of the decade-long hunt for al-Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks, and his death at the hands of the Navy SEAL Team 6 in May, 2011."
Kathryn Bigelow brings something in the same vein of her Oscar-winning The Hurt Locker, but it seems that she has chosen a side of the battle this time. Zero Dark Thirty promises to be extremely focused on USA's cause against Bin Laden and the most interesting thing in The Hurt Locker was there were no bad guys or good guys... I'm feeling unsure about putting Bigelow's upcoming in the 10th spot, but I believe the movie will benefit from good directing, and good acting and explore the terrorism theme. I think won't be easy to Zero to get a Best Picture nod this year: Argo is near a similar subject and people are already wondering about possible similarities with the excellent Homeland T.V. series. I believe I'll give it a shot, as most of the Oscar folks are doing: I mean, last time Bigelow explored the war theme it was done in a  brilliant way.



11. Moonrise Kingdom
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Jared Gilman, Kara Hayward, Bruce Willis, Frances McDormand, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Jason Schwartzman and Tilda Swinton
Synopsis: "Set on an island off the coast of New England in the summer of 1965, Moonrise Kingdom tells the story of two twelve-year-olds who fall in love, make a secret pact, and run away together into the wilderness. As various authorities try to hunt them down, a violent storm is brewing off-shore -- and the peaceful island community is turned upside down in more ways than anyone can handle."
Maybe the indie box-office success of the year, Moonrise Kingdom made critics and audiences fall in love for its story of young naïve love and the movie is fruit of a solid cast and great screenplay and a stylish directing work, but there isn't a lot of Oscar buzz around this one right now. For some reason, people aren't talking about Moonrise Kingdom in the Best Picture category, but I believe it will do well during awards season and increases its Oscar prospects. 

12. Hitchcock
Director: Sacha Gervasi
Starring: Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren, Scarlett Johansson, Toni Collette, Danny Huston, Jessica Biel, James D'Arcy and Michael Wincott
Synopsis: "A love story between influential filmmaker Alfred Hitchcock and wife Alma Reville during the filming of Psico in 1959."
Early reviews from AFI Festi say it is a "good" but not "great" piece of cinema, but AMPAS may have its regrets about never giving a golden man to "the great and glorious genius Alfred Hitchcock"... The acting is raved (and it will get acting nominations, for sure) and the production design values are praised as well, so, if the Globes fall in love for the man and the making of his most famous creation (Psycho) this one it may get a Best Picture nod.

13. Django Unchained
Director: Quentin Tarantino
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Don Johnson, Samuel L. Jackson, Sasha Baron Cohen, Kerry Washington and Jonah Hill
Synopsys: "With the help of his mentor, a slave-turned-bounty hunter sets out to rescue his wife from a brutal Mississippi plantation owner."
A Tarantino movie always means strong language, violence, blood and some memorable quotes, but the only Best Picture nominated Tarantino works are Pulp Fiction (cult status) and Inglorious Basterds. Will Django Unchained be good enough to do not stay in the shadows of Basterds, which was released in a near past, staying alive in Oscar voters memories? Or is Django just a bloody western?


14. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Director: Peter Jackson
Starring: Martin Freeman, Ian McKellen, Richard Armitage, Hugo Weaving, Cate Blanchett and Andy Serkis
Synopsis: "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey follows title character Bilbo Baggins, who is swept into an epic quest to reclaim the lost Dwarf Kingdom of Erebor, which was long ago conquered by the dragon Smaug. Approached out of the blue by the wizard Gandalf the Grey, Bilbo finds himself joining a company of thirteen dwarves led by the legendary warrior Thorin Oakenshield. Although their goal lies to the East and the wastelands of the Lonely Mountain, first they must escape the goblin tunnels, where Bilbo meets the creature that will change his life forever... Gollum. Here, alone with Gollum, on the shores of an underground lake, the unassuming Bilbo Baggins not only discovers depths ofguile and courage that surprise even him, he also gains possession of Gollum's "precious" ...a simple, gold ring that is tied to the fate of all Middle-earth in ways Bilbo cannot begin to know."
The Academy already honoured Tolkien's universe by nominating all the three movies of the Lord of the Rings and giving a win to the last chapter of the saga, but with The Hobbit trilogy coming the question is: "Do Oscar voters feel like they already recognized this kind of story"? The movie will almost get nods in the Best Production Design and Visual Effects departments, but it will have to suprass the Lord of the Rings installements in order to reach bigger categories.

15. Flight
Director: Robert Zemeckis
Starring: Denzel Washington, Nadine Velazquez and Carter Cabassa
Synopsis: "An airline pilot saves a flight from crashing, but an investigation into the malfunctions reveals something troubling."
While the movie clearly benefits from Denzel Washington's raved performance, Flight has its flaws and it may be too old-fashioned for today's Academy's tastes. Some critics love it, some critics just didn't fall in love for this movie, but I still seeing this one as a contender for a potential unexpected Best Picture nominee (just like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close).

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