- BEST PICTURE
1. Argo
COMMENT: Tense, intelligent, comic and about "how important a movie can be", Argo is that rare Oscar-worthy thriller that scores an impressive number at box-office ($106.4M in U.S.) and it estabilishes Ben Affleck as a respected director in Hollywood, proving Gone Baby Gone and The Town were fruit of a true directing talent. With a terrific cast and an "immaculated" awards season, Argo is the front-runner of the Best Picture race, from my point of view. 5 Golden Globe noms, 7 Critics' Choice Awards nominations, 2 SAG Awards nods (including Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast) and tons of recognition from critics groups, Argo may not be the best movie of the year (for me, the best picture of the year is Beasts of the Southern Wild, but it's a personal opionion), but it is a damn good one and a piece of cinema designed just for the AMPAS taste. A Best Picture nomination is locked, a Best Picture win is likely.
2. Zero Dark Thirty
COMMENT: A movie few have already seen (I haven't), Zero Dark Thirty made a huge impression since the day National Board of Review named it Best Film and gave it the Best Director and Best Actress prizes. Considered the best film of the year by a big number of critics' associations, ZDT is this year's critical darling who doing well at box-office (if I'm not wrong it is only playing in 5 theatres for 2 weeks and its cum is already $1.1M). It missed an important SAG Award for Best Performance by an Outstanding Cast (crucial for a Best Picture win), but the critics associations' support is huge and it tells an important, yet controversial, story about a woman's search for the most wanted man in History. Bigelow already directed a Best Picture Oscar winning movie (The Hurt Locker) and it seems her return to the Middle East will earn her more Oscar glory.
3. Les Misérables
COMMENT: While some get disappointed with the movie, others are completely in love for it. In fact, Les Miz current Rotten Tomatoes score is "only" 72%, but its epic greatness and bravura performances just make it impossible to resist to a Best Picture Oscar nomination. Fans of the show simply loved this cinematic adaptation of one of the most beloved stories ever and if there's something fresh about this picture that only plays in its advantage is having all the actors singing live on camera (a risky option that gave the movie a "real heart" in my opinion). Nominated for the Golden Globe of Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, for the Critics' Choice Award of Best Film and Best Acting Ensemble and for 4 SAG Awards (including the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture), Les Misérables may be the first Best Picture nominated musical since 2004's Ray. Honestly, I can see Les Misérables taking home (almost) every Acting Ensemble awards and since it has the "epic" status, I can actually see this one taking the Best Picture prize home, no matter how many flaws it has.
4. Silver Linings Playbook
COMMENT: A simple movie, but a great one at the same time. Silver Linings Playbook may not be an epic piece of cinema, but it has a heart, thanks to a beautiful pack of acting performances, an heartfelt screenplay and a sensitive direction, being one of the best movies of 2012, by far. Critics and audiences loved David O. Russell's latest and it took home TIFF big prize (the People's Choice Award), which often translates into a Best Picture Oscar nomination. It got four SAG Award nominations (including Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast), 7 Critics' Choice Awards nods (including Best Film, Best Comedy Movie and Best Acting Ensemble) and 4 Golden Globes noms (including Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical). Being the feel-good movie of the awards season, holding an impressive 91% score at Rotten Tomatoes and having the Weinstein Company behind, Silver Linings Playbook may be considered a lock in the Best Picture nominees shortlist and a strong (yet unexpected) contender for a win, in my opinion.
5. Lincoln
COMMENT: With an impressive box-office performance ($116.8M in U.S.), specially for a biopic, Lincoln's secret may be its ability to entertain, to amaze with fantastic acting performances and to give an History lesson to audiences. Lincoln is a better movie than War Horse in every aspects and if Spielberg's previous movie managed to get a Best Picture nomination, Lincoln is a lock in this race and some take him as good contender for a win, but I don't share the same opinion. With 7 Golden Globe nominations, 13 Critics' Choice Award nominations and 4 SAG Award nods, I believe the AMPAS and all the others associations aren't just giving a win to a biopic, specially with movies like Zero Dark Thirty (I haven't seen yet, sorry) or Argo around (critics associations almost only award Lincoln with acting and screenplay prizes), but a Best Picture nomination is a guarantee and I bet it will end up being the movie with most Academy Award noms.
6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
COMMENT: My personal favorite this year, Beasts of the Southern Wild is the low-budget project that became a giant during Sundance Film Festival and this awards season, being the proof that you don't need a lot of money in order to make a cinematic masterpiece. It got a Critics Choice Award nomination for Best Film, but SAG considered it uneligible, the Globes simply snubed the whole movie, but critics associations are just in love for Beasts. And we can say the same about audiences, since it managed to score $11.2M at US box-office (an impressive number considering the movie's budget was $1.8M). I believe the movie will get enough #1 votes, since people who saw Beasts tend to love and this may be strongest independent production that's in the run for a Best Picture nomination, so Oscar voters who are members of the "indie community" will go for this one, almost for sure. No matter what, Beasts is (one of) the best movie(s) of the year.
7. Life of Pi
COMMENT: Considered an amazing technical achievement that's emotionally satisfying at the same time, Ang Lee's Life of Pi is the typical risky project that succeeds and has enough Oscar-quality in order to get nominated. While I haven't seen this one yet, people simply loved the movie and described the cinematic experience as "very very satisfying" and "money-worthy". Ang Lee's latest got a Golden Globe nod for Best Motion Picture - Drama and a Critics' Choice Award nom for Best Film and it is doing well at the box-office ($76.2M in USA, not bad at all) and since it is a front-runner in categories like Best Cinematography (the trailer just gives you something more than just "beautiful" images), Best Original Score, Best Visual Effects and Best Editing, I smell an easy Best Picture nomination for Life of Pi. In spite of haven't seen Pi yet, I believe its biggest advantage seems to be "being the most visually impressive Best Picture contender of the year", but I just wonder if it is going to get enough #1 votes...
8. Django Unchained
COMMENT: Described as an outrageously violent, bloody, ironic and funny Spaghetti Western, Quentin Tarantino's latest is impressing me during this awards season. It got a Critics' Choice Award nomination for Best Film and 5 Golden Globe nominations and critics are loving this one. Plus, it features an impressive ensemble cast that includes Jamie Foxx, Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Don Johnson, Samuel L. Jackson and Kerry Washington, which will certainly be a magnet for a big couple of Oscar voters. Django Unchained is another masterpiece from Tarantino, who already presented us classics like Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction (cult movie status), the Kill Bill movies and Inglorious Basterds - so, I believe the Academy won't be afraid to recognize another Tarantino work, since he already proved he's a gifted and a loved-by-the-audiences filmmaker and this movie seems just too good to be ignored.
9. The Master
COMMENT: While it missed a crucial Best Motion Picture - Drama Golden Globe nomination, I still believe people shouldn't exclude The Master from their Best Picture predictions: it is an appealing movie for "serious" cinema fans and I believe it may please those who voted for The Tree of Life, last year. Acting, original screenplay and cinematography seem to be the categories where The Master has bigger Oscar chances, which will translate into Best Picture traction. Plus, critics associations are honouring the movie (Critics' Choice Award of Best Film nod, LAFCA Award of Best Picture (2nd place), NYFCC Award of Best Picture (3rd place)) and since the Best Director field is so competitive this year, making it difficult to PTAnderson to get honoured for his amazing work, I think a Best Picture nomination may be used as a vehicle to say "We are so sorry" to him.
10. Moonrise Kingdom
COMMENT: I feel people are underestimating Moonrise Kingdom, one of the "sweethearts" of the indie community: it took home the Gotham Award of Best Film and it managed to get Critics' Choice Award, Golden Globe and Independent Spirit Award of Best Feature nominations and critics' associations are honouring it in a big couple of categories, including Best Picture. It feature an all-star cast, it is directed by the talented Wes Anderson and it is one of the strongest contenders in the Best Original Screenplay field. Shame it missed a SAG Award nod for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast. Plus, Moonrise did extremely well in the box-office ($45.5M in USA), showing how much audiences loved this indie.
11. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (that SAG Award nominations for Outstanding Supporting Actress - Maggie Smith - and for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast was just unexpected by most; I believe the movie may have more supporters than we, Oscar predictions folks, actually think!)
12. Amour
13. The Sessions
14. Cloud Atlas (some members of the Academy simply prefer impressive visuals and quantity over quality and for those, Cloud Atlas is the perfect choice)
15. Hitchcock
Comments