1.
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Born: October 28, 1974 - San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2001 - Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator (nom); 2006 - Best Leading Actor for Walk the Line (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Two Lovers
The comeback factor: The Master marks the comeback to acting of one of the rebel sons of the Academy. Paul Thomas Anderson's movies always feature amazing acting performance and The Master is no exception: in this one, Joaquin Phoenix proves he's a truly acting animal (and he acts like one!). It is one of the most praised performances of the year (and the best one, in my opinion) and the movie itself is respected piece of cinema, a true delight for "serious audiences", so I think an Oscar nomination will be easy for him. The AMPAS loves a rockin' comeback and Phoenix is clearly in the lead of this championship, but we can't forget he already trashed Oscar recognition some weeks ago, turning what could be an easy road to an Oscar win into a big and interesting question mark. Day-Lewis will be running for his third win, Phoenix for his first one... I believe it will be easier for Phoenix now he apologized the Academy for the "bad things" he said about the Academy Awards and the awards season in general (voters always love some drama).
The comeback factor: The Master marks the comeback to acting of one of the rebel sons of the Academy. Paul Thomas Anderson's movies always feature amazing acting performance and The Master is no exception: in this one, Joaquin Phoenix proves he's a truly acting animal (and he acts like one!). It is one of the most praised performances of the year (and the best one, in my opinion) and the movie itself is respected piece of cinema, a true delight for "serious audiences", so I think an Oscar nomination will be easy for him. The AMPAS loves a rockin' comeback and Phoenix is clearly in the lead of this championship, but we can't forget he already trashed Oscar recognition some weeks ago, turning what could be an easy road to an Oscar win into a big and interesting question mark. Day-Lewis will be running for his third win, Phoenix for his first one... I believe it will be easier for Phoenix now he apologized the Academy for the "bad things" he said about the Academy Awards and the awards season in general (voters always love some drama).
2.
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Born: April 29, 1957 - Greenwich, London, England, UK Previous
Oscar acting recognition: 1990 - Best Leading Actor for My Left Foot (win); 1994 - Best Leading Actor for In the Name of the Father (nom); 2003 - Best Leading Actor for Gangs of New York (nom); 2008 - Best Leading Actor for There Will Be Blood (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1997 - The Boxer
Maybe the most acclaimed performance of the year, so far, Daniel Day-Lewis' portray of Abraham Lincoln in Steven Spielberg's Lincoln will give him a Best Leading Actor Oscar nomination - fact! In normal conditions, it would become an Oscar-winning performance easily, but we can't forget Daniel already has two golden men at home and... well... it wouldn't be fair to Meryl Streep to give Mr. "Lincoln" his third Oscar so soon. Critics love him and his performance was simply raved (once again, Day-Lewis disappears into his character), the movie is one of the frontrunners of the Best Picture race and it is having a good box-office performance. A lock in the Best Leading Actor category.
Maybe the most acclaimed performance of the year, so far, Daniel Day-Lewis' portray of Abraham Lincoln in Steven Spielberg's Lincoln will give him a Best Leading Actor Oscar nomination - fact! In normal conditions, it would become an Oscar-winning performance easily, but we can't forget Daniel already has two golden men at home and... well... it wouldn't be fair to Meryl Streep to give Mr. "Lincoln" his third Oscar so soon. Critics love him and his performance was simply raved (once again, Day-Lewis disappears into his character), the movie is one of the frontrunners of the Best Picture race and it is having a good box-office performance. A lock in the Best Leading Actor category.
3.
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Born: October 12, 1968 - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Early reactions to the first screening of Tom Hooper's Les Misérables musical say Anne Hathaway is amazing as Fantine, but Hugh Jackman also made a huge impression in the iconic role of Jean Valjean and since the movie is the clear front-runner in the Best Picture category, Jackman may be a lock for a Best Leading Actor Oscar nomination. Singing, dancing and acting in stage musicals is no strange thing for Jackman, a Tony-winning actor, so using his stage skills in front of a camera (exclude the "dancing") will be like being at home for him. Valjean is kind to all whom he encounters, a devoted substitute father to a girl who loses her mother, and a benefactor to those in need, represents the best traits of humanity - such a sympathetic character... Plus, this category needs a first-time nominee and "Wolverine" seems to be never-nominated contender in better position to get the seat...
Early reactions to the first screening of Tom Hooper's Les Misérables musical say Anne Hathaway is amazing as Fantine, but Hugh Jackman also made a huge impression in the iconic role of Jean Valjean and since the movie is the clear front-runner in the Best Picture category, Jackman may be a lock for a Best Leading Actor Oscar nomination. Singing, dancing and acting in stage musicals is no strange thing for Jackman, a Tony-winning actor, so using his stage skills in front of a camera (exclude the "dancing") will be like being at home for him. Valjean is kind to all whom he encounters, a devoted substitute father to a girl who loses her mother, and a benefactor to those in need, represents the best traits of humanity - such a sympathetic character... Plus, this category needs a first-time nominee and "Wolverine" seems to be never-nominated contender in better position to get the seat...
4.
John Hawkes for The Sessions
Born: September 11, 1959 - Alexandria, Minnesota, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2011 - Best Supporting Actor for Winter's Bone (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2011 - Martha Marcy May Marlene
After his excellent dazzling performance in Winter's Bone, for which he won his first Academy Award nomination, John Hawkes presented us another great performance in another Sundance hit - Martha Marcy May Marlene - but the AMPAS didn't care. This year, Hawkes is in contention for another Oscar nod for the third year in a row and, unlike last year, the buzz around him stills hot in December. Playing a man trapped in a body thanks to his disabilities is just something delicious for the Academy to watch and its members usually recognize this kind of performances. Plus, The Sessions was one of the most loved movies during this year's edition of Sundance Film Festival and it is under some considerable Best Picture buzz (maybe not enough for a Best Picture nod, since it missed the crucial Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Feature - I must revise my Best Picture predictions soon), which will certainly benefit Hawkes' Oscar chances.
5.
Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock
Born: December 31, 1937 - Margam, Port Talbot, West Glamorgan, Wales, UK
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1992 - Best Leading Actor for The Silence of the Lambs (win); 1994 - Best Leading Actor for The Remains of the Day (nom); 1996 - Best Leading Actor for Nixon (nom); 1998 - Best Supporting Actor for Amistad (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1993 - Shadowlands; 2005 - Proof
Well, Anthony Hopkin's makeup in Hitchcock promises to get some recognition during the awards season, since it turned Hopkins into someone similar to Alfred Hitchcock, but, according to critics, what really sells Hopkins as Hitchcock is the acting performance itself. The actor managed to get some of the legendary director's mannerisms and vocal patterns, which allowed him to sell his character beyond the makeup work. The Academy loves when a movie star plays an iconic person and Hopkins does it and, in spite of the competition this year and the movie's mixed-positive reception, we have an Oscar-winning actor playing Alfred Hitchcock and reviews say he's "fun to watch" from the worst point of view. But Hopkins has been away from award-worthy projects for a long time, just like the also Oscar-winning Denzel Washington, who delivers a tour de force performance in Flight...
6. Denzel Washington for Flight
Born: December 28, 1954 - Mount Vernon, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1988 - Best Supporting Actor for Cry Freedom (nom); 1990 - Best Supporting Actor for Glory (win); 1993 - Best Leading Actor for Malcom X (nom); 2000 - Best Leading Actor for The Hurricane (nom); 2002 - Best Leading Actor for Training Day (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2007 - American Gangster
Exclude Antwone Fisher and American Gangster and you realise Denzel Washington didn't quite honoured his second Oscar win, but he's back to Oscar talking thanks to his great performance in Flight. The AMPAS loves a career/critical comeback and Mr. Washington just made a huge impression as an addict who miraculously crash lands his plane after a mid-air catastrophe - a meaty Oscar-friendly role, but the movie itself didn't impress and there are a lot of strong contenders in this category this year.
Exclude Antwone Fisher and American Gangster and you realise Denzel Washington didn't quite honoured his second Oscar win, but he's back to Oscar talking thanks to his great performance in Flight. The AMPAS loves a career/critical comeback and Mr. Washington just made a huge impression as an addict who miraculously crash lands his plane after a mid-air catastrophe - a meaty Oscar-friendly role, but the movie itself didn't impress and there are a lot of strong contenders in this category this year.
7. Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Born: January 5, 1975 - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
It may sound strange saying "Bradley Cooper, the Academy Award nominee", specially when you relate his name to The Hangover, rom-coms and cheap-looking action movies, but the truth is that I started taking Cooper seriously since Limitless. Silver Linings Playbook is under a really strong Best Picture buzz and since Cooper is just a charismatic guy and he got solid raves, I guess he will get some major nods and an Oscar nomination is possible to happen.
It may sound strange saying "Bradley Cooper, the Academy Award nominee", specially when you relate his name to The Hangover, rom-coms and cheap-looking action movies, but the truth is that I started taking Cooper seriously since Limitless. Silver Linings Playbook is under a really strong Best Picture buzz and since Cooper is just a charismatic guy and he got solid raves, I guess he will get some major nods and an Oscar nomination is possible to happen.
8. Jean-Louis Trintignant for Amour
Born: December 11, 1930 - Piolenc, Vaucluse, France
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
Michael Haneke's Amour benefits from its leads' performances, but I believe Emmanuelle Riva will put Trintignant in her shadow during awards season. He delivers a quite effective performance and the movie is simply touching but it's Riva who really shines as the wife with a declining health and the Oscar buzz around Trintignant is considered "small" when compared with his co-star's. I believe he will make an impression during awards season, but I don't think the Academy will honour him.
Michael Haneke's Amour benefits from its leads' performances, but I believe Emmanuelle Riva will put Trintignant in her shadow during awards season. He delivers a quite effective performance and the movie is simply touching but it's Riva who really shines as the wife with a declining health and the Oscar buzz around Trintignant is considered "small" when compared with his co-star's. I believe he will make an impression during awards season, but I don't think the Academy will honour him.
9. Bill Murray for Hyde Park On Hudson
Born: September 21, 1950 - Wilmette, Illinois, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2004 - Best Leading Actor for Lost In Translation (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1998 - Rushmore; 2005 - Broken Flowers; 2010 - Get Low
I love Bill Murray and I bet a lot of AMPAS voters also love him a lot, but Hyde Park On Hudson disapointed too many people in order to give Murray his second Oscar nomination. He got raves for his performance as President Franklin D. Roosevelt and HPOH is just Murray's show, but all the buzz around him simply faded after first reviews. No matter what, a Golden Globe nom is likely to happen and he stills a contender in this race (and a wheelchair may help him a lot).
10. Ben Affleck for Argo
Born: August 15, 1972 - Berkeley, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2006 - Hollywoodland
Affleck's acting turn in Argo is nothing special, but the movie is just to Best Picture-friendly to ignore its influence in the acting fields. He got some below average praise, but the showiest parts of Arkin and Cranston took the raves, making a Best Leading Actor nod difficult to get, specially in such a competitive year for this category.
Affleck's acting turn in Argo is nothing special, but the movie is just to Best Picture-friendly to ignore its influence in the acting fields. He got some below average praise, but the showiest parts of Arkin and Cranston took the raves, making a Best Leading Actor nod difficult to get, specially in such a competitive year for this category.
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