- BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1999 - Best Actress for Elizabeth (nom); 2005 - Best Supporting Actress for The Aviator (win); 2007 - Best Supporting Actress for Notes on a Scandal (nom); 2008 - Best Actress for Elizabeth: The Golden Age (nom); 2008 - Best Supporting Actress for I'm Not There (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2000 - The Man Who Cried; 2003 - Veronica Guerin; 2005 - Little Fish; 2008 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
COMMENT: It has been a while since I'm Not There (the last "great performance" by Blanchett if you exclude her charming turn in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) and after a three years of work in money-making movies, Blanchett is finally back to the meaty/complex roles. In fact, it promises to a good year for the Australian actress with the early Best Picture buzz around The Monuments Men and all the buzz around her performance in Woody's latest. In fact, Mr. Allen doesn't produce a Best Actress nomination since Interiors (1978), but if there's someone who can change it is Meryl Streep or Cate Blanchett and he got the last one. Precursor love is strong, the movie is doing well at the box-office (specially for a limited release) and both critics and audiences recognize Blanchett totally commands the scenes in Blue Jasmine. A great "comeback" for one of the best actresses working today and an Oscar nomination seems really likely to happen.
2. Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1990 - Best Supporting Actress for Steel Magnolias (nom); 1991 - Best Actress for Pretty Woman (nom); 2001 - Best Actress for Erin Brockovich (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1997 - My Best Friend's Wedding
COMMENT: While Roberts is no longer the huge hit maker she used to be, she may find a different kind of love with August: an Oscar nomination would be welcome at the current stage of her career, which could put her on the top of Hollywood's leading ladies wishlist again. There are no doubts about John Wells' second feature film will be on of those ensemble acting movie and there are no doubts an ordinary actor/actress would have problems in shinning brighter between such a talented cast, but considering how charming and charismatic Julia Roberts can be and considering Harvey Weinstein announced Meryl Streep will be promoted for Best Supporting Actress race instead of Best Actress' when Oscar campaign begins, I believe Roberts will have good chances in geting a spot in the Academy Award of Best Actress nominees shortlist, specially if she's as great as she looks to be in the movie trailer. Plus, if the movie gets Golden Globe nods in the Comedy/Musical categories, Roberts (who's loved by the globes) is likely to take home the Best Actress - Comedy/Musical prize home, which will give a huge boost in the Best Actress race and then an Oscar nod can happen easily.
3. Judi Dench for Philomena
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1998 - Best Actress for Mrs. Brown (nom); 1999 - Best Supporting Actress for Shakespeare in Love (win); 2001 - Best Supporting Actress for Chocolat (nom); 2002 - Best Actress for Iris (nom); 2006 - Best Actress for Mrs. Henderson Presents (nom); 2007 - Best Actress for Notes on a Scandal (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1985 - A Room with a View
COMMENT: Dame Judi Dench is one of UK's treasures and an acting reference for a lot of people acting out there, but it's been a while since her last Oscar nomination... After getting a little buzz for her work in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2011) and after almost being nominated for Skyfall (2012), maybe the seventh Oscar nod happens this year with Philomena. The AMPAS loves suffering mothers and, in this one, Dench plays a mother searching for the son who was taken from her decades ago after becoming pregnant, which sounds just like Oscary material, specially for an actress of Dench's caliber. Stephen Fears already directed Dench in her Oscar nominated turn in Mrs. Henderson Presents and he's also responsible for giving some Oscar nods to Glenn Close, Michelle Pfeiffer, Anjelica Huston or Annette Bening and for Helen Mirren's win for The Queen. So I think Dench's Oscar hopes are solid, specially if you consider she's getting old and the AMPAS may not have much more excuses to recognize her talent in the future. I don't think the movie itself needs an universal critical acclaim in order to see Philomena fighting for a Best Actress nomination: in my opinion, the performance alone may be enough (as it should always be).
4. Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks
.jpg)
Born: April 15, 1959 - Paddington, London, England, UK
Previous Oscar recognition: 1993 - Best Actress for Howard's End (win); 1994 - Best Actress for The Remains of the Day (nom); 1994 - Best Supporting Actress for In the Name of the Father (nom); 1996 - Best Actress for Sense and Sensibility (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1997 - The Winter Guest; 2003 - Love Actually
COMMENT: People seem to want Emma Thompson back to glory after too many years living in her "kind of absence". One of the major actresses in the 90's, Thompson hasn't done nothing quite remarkable since Sense and Sensibility (but you must agree she was fantastic in both The Winter Guest and Love Actually), but people want to see her back and Saving Mr. Banks has been seen as a potential vehicle for a "comeback" of the great actress. Playing the opinative author of Mary Poppins, P.L. Travers, in a movie about the adaptation of her most famous story to the big-screen and her relationship with Walt Disney, seems to be a delicious part and early word on her performance says she's "incredible", describing her as "both funny and bittersweet" (Jason Schwartzman, her co-star). Early buzz is positive, her absence is noticed and people seem to want her back to Oscar recognition, so it's impossible to deny how big her chances of getting a nod seem to be right now...
5. Brie Larson for Short Term 12
Born: October 1, 1989 - Sacramento, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: Working in the cinema industry for years, Larson's talent was widely recognized this year during SXSW Film Festival, thanks to her performance in the indie drama Short Term 12. Critics called Larson's turn in Short Term 12 as a "quiet revelation" and the general consensus is that she delivers a great breakthrough performance. The AMPAS usually has a first-time nominee actress in the Best Actress shortlist and we have Larson in a drama that seems to fit the Oscar voters' tastes better than Frances Ha (another indie movie that features an amazing breakthrough turn from Greta Gerwig). Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) or Catalina Sandino Moreno (Mary Full of Grace) are just some examples of young actors with no previous Oscar nod who managed to get an Oscar nom thanks to an acclaimed indie movie and considering the current buzz around her performance, the promise of breakthrough awards and the "need" of a never-nominated actress in the run for a Best Actress nomination, maybe a nod happens for Brie Larson. But then, we have the cases of Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Felicity Jones (Like Crazy) or Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed) who starred raved indie movies and delivered amazing performances and ended with no Oscar nom.
6. Bérénice Bejo for The Past
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2012 - Best Supporting Actress for The Artist (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: Winner of the Cannes Film Festival Award of Best Actress at this year's edition, Bejo is back to the Oscar race with The Past (Le passé), but this time, we hear the sound of her voice. An impressive performance, indeed, building a complex and compelling character (Asghar Farhadi knows how to direct his actors). But AMPAS isn't always open to honour foreign language performances and since Emmanuelle Riva was nominated just one year ago, they may not be that interest in having an actress nominated for another French-speaking role so soon. Only the awards season will really tell us about Bejo's Oscar chances...
7. Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha
Born: August 4, 1983 - Sacramento, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: Gerwig is reaching the "Indie Royality" status (watch out Michelle Williams!) and her performance in Frances Ha is an amazing star-making turn: she's the heart and the batery of the movie. Critics loved her and audiences find her charming, but the movie might be too indie for the AMPAS and won't likely get more than a lot of indie awards circuit prizes and critics associations awards, which is a shame, because Frances Ha features one performance that will be considered one of the best of this decade, in a near feature.
8. Kate Winslet for Labor Day
Born: October 5, 1975 - Reading, Berkshire, England, UK
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1996 - Best Supporting Actress for Sense and Sensibility (nom); 1998 - Best Actress for Titanic (nom); 2002 - Best Supporting Actress for Iris (nom); 2005 - Best Actress for The Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind (nom); 2007 - Best Actress for Little Children (nom); 2009 - Best Actress for The Reader (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2004 - Finding Neverland; 2008 - Revolutionary Road
COMMENT: Jason Reitman is responsible for memorable acting turns and Winslet's role in Labor Day is said to be really complex and juicy material. She's a gifted actress (one of the best alive, for sure), so I've no doubts she will present us with a great performance and considering it has been a while since her win for The Reader, maybe she has some chances... Oscar voters used to love her a lot, but sometimes they are just not interested in nominating who already won, specially when this "who" won the Oscar "only" four years ago (silly people!).
9. Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Born: July 26, 1964 - Arlington, Virginia, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2010 - Best Actress for The Blind Side (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: I'm not a fan of her dramatic turns and I think her win for The Blind Side was totally unfair, but as a celebrity, I must admit I see Bullock as a captivating public figure and it's clear audiences and people working in the business love her (and she's box-office gold!). Gravity is one of the highly-antecipated movies of the year and sounds like one of the most ambitious ones in years, so I believe Bullock may actually have good chances in the Oscar race IF the movie does well at box-office and between the critics. She won for The Blind Side, for God's sake... a nod for Gravity may just happen!
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
.jpg)
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 17 nominations, 3 wins (1980 - Best Supporting Actress for Kramer Vs Kramer; 1983 - Best Actress for Sophie's Choice; 2012 - Best Actress for The Iron Lady)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1979 - Manhattan; 2002 - The Hours
COMMENT: Those priceless line deliveries in August: Osage County movie trailer just make me feel confident about including The Great Streep in my Best Actress nominess predictions. For Streep, the hardest thing must be not doing some "acting magic" in the role of Violet Weston and while some might claim she won't get nominated because of her recent win for The Iron Lady, I must share the opposite opinion: the AMPAS loves to recognize great performances from big stars (poor "fresh faces"...) and having Streep using her comedic chops in this role just sounds delicious (people who know the play know what I'm talking about). Plus, August: Osage County seems one of those family comedy/dramas that gets some acting ensemble awards, so, unless the movie's critical response is really weak, I believe Streep has her 18th nomination assured.
2. Amy Adams for American Hustle
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2006 - Best Supporting Actress for Junebug (nom); 2009 - Best Supporting Actress for Doubt (nom); 2011 - Best Supporting Actress for The Fighter (nom); 2013 - Best Supporting Actress for The Master (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: She gets nominated so easily that it is just natural predicting Amy Adams in the Best Supporting Actress category. After getting nominated for two turns she certainly almost did in her sleep (Doubt and The Master) and after two truly impressive performances (Junebug and The Fighter), will she get the gold at fifth attempt? David O. Russell's movies are known for featuring great acting performances and the man already gave Adams a nod, but this year, her part in the crime-comedy/drama American Hustle just sounds Oscar-worthy: the partner in crime and lover of a con artist who's forced to work with a federal agent against the crime and corruption of New Jersey. After seeing the trailer, I must say Adams never looked so sexy and, well... so appealing, but since I know the actress' previous works, a complex character with real depht is just expected from her. Considering the AMPAS can't live without having her nominated for Best Supporting Actress, I guess she will get a nod (if she doesn't go to be promoted as a lead) and, who knows, fight for a win.
3. Cameron Diaz for The Counselor
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1999 - Being John Malkovich; 2001 - Vanilla Sky
COMMENT: Do you believe there was a time when Cameron Diaz was almost a two times Academy Award nominated actress? Well, personally, I think she was a victim of an ugly Oscar snub for her work in Being John Malkovich... but then a sequence of crappy projects came after 2002. Well, no matter what, the fact is that Angelina Jolie almost got the role of Malkina, so, there must be something interesting about this role, right? Well, in fact, early reports about the movie say Diaz is simply outstanding in her role, considering how psycho she looks during The Counselor trailer and knowing the girl has good dramatic chops, maybe there's something about Cameron Diaz we shouldn't ignore. The globes used to love her, so, if she gets raves, I can see her getting a Golden Globe nod and judging by the tone of the movie trailer, a solid fanbase and big internet buzz are also likely when awards season begins, but the movie must get wide critical prize in order to give Diaz a solid vehicle for the awards season.
4. Scarlett Johansson for Don Jon
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2003 - Lost In Translation; 2003 - Girl with Pearl Earring; 2005 - Match Point
COMMENT: Lost In Translation was released ten years ago and Scarlett Johansson almost became an Academy Award nominee ten years ago, will she become one this year? She stars Don Jon, alongside Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and she collected raves for her comedic turn in the acclaimed Sundance Film Festival hit. Called her best performance in years, she's said to be "great in a tricky role" , "hilarious" and that she builds the whole character different from her previous ones (voice, body, appearance, behaviour and accent), but will the AMPAS buy her in a movie about porn, objectification and Hollywood movie fantasies? Don Jon doesn't look like the Academy's cup of tea, but the same could be said about Bridesmaids and it got two Oscar nods (including a Best Supporting nomination for Melissa McCarthy). Well, Oscar voters like comedic performances in the supporting acting categories, that's sure, but will Miss Johansson be able to stand-out between other contenders' more dramatic turns? It's complicated, but considering her recent success of The Avengers and the other interesting projects she's in this year, an Oscar nomination seems to go on her way.
5. Oprah Winfrey for Lee Daniel's The Butler
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1986 - Best Supporting Actress for The Color Purple (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: She's one of the most powerful women in the world (you know, people just love her) and her comeback to movies is full of charisma and screen presence. While no one can't stop thinking "I'm watching Oprah playing a drunk wife", there's no way to deny she does commands the screen when she appears. Actresses from Lee Daniel's previous movies got Oscar traction (Gabourey Sidibe and Mo'Nique for Precious, both got the nod and the last one took a golden man home, and Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy, but she didn't got a nom in spite of the awards love) and Oprah is the brighest star between an A-list cast full of famous and estabilished acting names. What's also working in her benefit is Lee Daniel's The Butler's box-office performance (it is currently the number 1, grossing $25M during its opening week) and the Best Picture buzz around it, a case that's similar to The Help's in 2011. A nod might happen. I'm being cautious about her in these predictions because there are a whole post-release heat around her performance, so, let's see if the whole enthusiasm around "Oprah's back to movies" episode keeps this strong after TIFF, because, right now, a Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination seems a guarantee. Popularity is such a huge Oscar buzz generator...
6. Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station
Born: May 25, 1970 - Montgomery, Alabama, USA
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: Her turn as the suffering mother of Oscar in Fruitvale Station is heartbreaking and completely different from her sacy Oscar-winning performance, but will Oscar voters be seduced by her presence in more serious territory? Well, reviews around Spencer are quite solid and the AMPAS doesn't have problems about nominating a black actress in the Best Supporting Actress category, but Michael B. Jordan is the one who gets the spotlight and people may not find her as charming in a true drama like they did in the "light" drama The Help. Plus, she's a true supporting actress, not a co-lead or a scene-stealer, but an actress who shines when she only has to, but stills heartbreaking...
7. Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
Born: April 27, 1976 in Dulwich, London, England, UK
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Happy-Go-Lucky
COMMENT: She might not be as shinning as Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, but Sally Hawkins is great in her part and, more important than all, she knows where's her place, which is something that makes her a good supporting actress. Woody Allen movies tend to produce a lot of Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations and once Hawkins is so good in Jasmine, I believe she might have a nice shot... but Blanchett is simply amazing, so voters may just forget Hawkins also exists in the very same movie... or do they have huge regrets about her atrocious snub for Happy-Go-Lucky and won't let this opportunity to nominate her escape?
8. Margo Martindale for August: Osage County
Born: July 18, 1951 - Jacksonville, Texas, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: She has a showy part in August: Osage County, the kind of "scene-stealer" one, but she will be running for an Oscar nod in the same category of Meryl Streep, her "lovely" co-star, and other supporting female co-stars: internal competition promises to be aggressive and Harvey Weinstein will have to choose who he wants to campaign in the Best Supporting Actress race. She's an Emmy nominated actress and she promises some "sacy acting" in August and considering how open the AMPAS is about comedic turns in the supporting acting categories, she can have a shot, but we can't ignore there are other comedic performances from some bigger stars fighting for a nod.
9. Nicole Kidman for The Railway Man
Born: June 20, 1967 - Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2002 - Best Actress for Moulin Rouge! (nom); 2003 - Best Actress for The Hours (win); 2011 - Best Actress for Rabbit Hole (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1995 - To Die For; 2003 - Cold Mountain; 2004 - Birth; 2012 - The Paperboy
COMMENT: She was close from her fourth Oscar nomination last year, but it seems The Paperboy wasn't conventional enough for the Academy. For sure one of the best actresses working today and one of the few who like to take juicy parts in risky projects, but it seems she decided to take a part in what seems to be a movie made for Oscar voters' tastes: she plays the supportive wife of a man who experienced the Holocaust. Sounds "Oscary" right? Shame we don't hear about The Railway Man for a long time.
Comments