1. Boyhood
Director: David Linklater
In theaters: July 11, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $24.2M
COMMENT: One of the most beloved and raved movies of the year, Boyhood primes for its ambition (12 years old in the making), its technical perfection and its raw honesty. Personally, I think it is the most perfect movie I've seen in a long time, providing me one of the most satisfying cinematic experiences ever. Scoring most of the Best Film prizes from critics associations, nominated for in 5 categories at the Golden Globe (including Best Motion Picture - Drama, for which it is considered the frontrunner), 3 nods at SAG Awards (including Best Performance by an Ensemble Cast) and 8 Critics' Choice Award noms, Boyhood seems to be the strongest contender in the Best Picture Oscar race since everything in it seems to be getting attention (film itself, directing work, screenplay, etc). It's an event movie, independent filmmaking at its best... a Best Picture nod seems inevitable.
2. Birdman
Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu
In theaters: November 14, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $23.7M
COMMENT: A brilliant satire about being a star and the showbizz-ness industry, Birdman is much more than Iñárritu's directing work or the acting performances, it is something brilliant as a whole. The movie is a clear frontrunner in the Best Picture Oscar race, taking some prizes at this year's edition of Venice Film Festival and being nominated for the major precursor awards, including 13 nods at Critics' Choice Awards, 7 Golden Globe nominations, 6 Independent Spirit Awards nominations or 4 noms at SAG Awards (including Best Performance by an Ensemble Cast) - and while they are all pending, the truth is Birdman is well ahead of most Best Picture contenders. Critics love it, buzz is crazy in the predictions foruns and websites and I think AMPAS members will love a comedy about a subject they might be familiar with.
Director: Ava DuVernay
In theaters: January 9, 2015 (US wide release)
US box-office: $0.9M (during its limited release - 1 week)
COMMENT: First reviews from the movie rave it and even audiences who had the opportunity of watching this one say it is a brilliant and inspiring biopic about Martin Luther King and, mostly, about the dream of equality. While it failed any kind of recognition from the SAG, Selma managed to get a respectable number of nominations from the other major precursors and it is competing for the Golden Globe of Best Motion Picture - Drama, the Critics' Choice Award of Best Film and the Independent Spirit Award of Best Feature, after taking home all the gold from African/American cinematic institutions' awards. Selma also benefits from the Best Actor buzz around Oyelowo performance in the movie, from having a woman behind the camera and for having Oprah Winfrey... I know The Butler got completely snubed at the nominations morning, but everything in Selma is much more Oscary (starting with the story itself) and having Oprah backing the movie is an advantage for sure.
4. The Imitation Game
Director: Morten Tyldum
In theaters: November 28, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $14.6M
COMMENT: The story of war hero Alan Turing, more than a biopic, is abiopic set in World War II, fitting the traditional Best Picture Oscar tastes perfectly. While the movie is more about Cumberbatch's performance in the title role, truth is The Imitation Game turned into a major Oscar player during this awards season, getting Best Picture/Film nods from a lot of critics associations and from the Globes and the Critics' Choice Awards. Having Weinstein Co backing it always helps and judging by the number os categories The Imitation Game is contending for a nod, I believe this one will have a seat in the most prestigious category at the Oscars shortlist and we have to admit the movie is really good no matter what some people say. It is losing momentum but I consider this one a fascinating story likely to get enough #1 votes from AMPAS members.
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Director: Wes Anderson
In theaters: March 7, 2014 (US limited release)
US box-office: $59.0M
COMMENT: With a great critical and box-office response, The Grand Budapest Hotel stands out of the crowd of Best Picture contenders for being the living proof that auteur releases can generate money. Budapest's specific reminds me of Midnight In Paris: a critical darling, loved by the audiences and a box-office sensation of a limited release... But Wes Anderson isn't Woody Allen and the AMPAS snubed Anderson's masterpieces in the past (The Royal Tenenbaums and Moonrise Kingdom). The movie got recognition from the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards and got a SAG nomination for Best Performance by an Ensemble Cast... even better than Moonrise Kingdom. Considering there are auteur cinema lovers between the Academy members and considering how beautiful and stylish The Grand Budapest Hotel is, I believe it has what it takes in order to get a Best Picture nomination at the Oscar nominations announcement morning, but I see it as a potential atrocious Best Picture snub too (but let's be optimistic).
6. Gone Girl
Director: David Fincher
In theaters: October 3, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $165.9M
COMMENT: A box-office sensation, a critical darling and a crowd pleasing Best Picture contender, Gone Girl might be a thriller (and the AMPAS tend to snub this genre in the Best Picture field), but Gone Girl is stylish, smart (more than a thriller, it is also a study about the influence and power of the media in people's judgements) and one of the most well-made movies of the year. The Globes passed on Fincher's latest in the Best Motion Picture - Drama category and the SAG "only" gave a nomination to Rosamund Pike, but a Critics' Choice Award noms in 6 categories, including Best Film, and multiple Best Film and nods from various critics organizations are proofs this thriller is one of the strongest players in the Best Picture Oscar game. I must admit older AMPAS members won't go for Gone Girl, for sure, but younger members will, almost for sure, so I believe it will get, at least 5% of the first place votes required to get a set in the Best Picture shortlist.
7. Whiplash
Director: Damien Chazelle
In theaters: October 10, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $5.5M
COMMENT: The big winner of 2014's edition of Sundance Film Festival, Whiplash has been collecting numerous prizes and it was nominated for Best Film in some major critics associations awards. Independent cinema awards (including Independent Spirit) wfell in love for this one and it has a solid fanbase, plus the idea of "you must suffer and change your life if you want to be the best ever" may seduce some AMPAS members, specially the more conservative one. It's not an indie box-office sensation, but Whiplash was a sensation at a couple of film festivals and sometimes Oscar voters go for Sundance champions... and this one is a really good one. It has J.K. Simmons leading the Best Supporting race and it is also a serious contender in Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing or Best Sound Mixing categories and some believe it has chances in the Best Director field too... I know it will never win Best Picture, for sure, but I can see a movie about artists taking #1 votes from a great variety of Academy members.
8. Unbroken
Director: Angelina Jolie
In theaters: December 25, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $46.1M (1st week only)
COMMENT: While it is criticized for being too conventional and too predictable, truth is Unbroken is described as a movie made specially for the AMPAS members tastes: a WWII epic survival story about the power and triumph of the human spirit. In spite of its mixed reviews from critics, the movie managed to get a Critics' Choice Award in Best Film category and it is listed as one of the best movies of the year according to AFI, which is not bad at all, making me think if we don't have our next Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - a non critically acclaimed movie that got a Best Picture nomination. Angelina Jolie's star power will certainly influence some Oscar voters (and I believe it was the main cause for its impressive opening at the box-office) and having Unbroken as one of the nominees in the top category of the Academy Awards is likely to happen. Still... critical reception has a huge influence, so I'm cautious about this one.
9. The Theory of Everything
Director: James Marsh
In theaters: November 7, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $22.4M
COMMENT: It is a very good film, but I've some doubts if it will be the favorite film of enough Oscar votes so it will be able to get a Best Picture nomination. Both Redmayne and Jones are superb and the movie works as an acting showcase for its leads and I think it will be seen in "just" this way when time to vote comes. Don't get me wrong, The Theory of Everything is a great movie, with very romantic, intimate and touching scenes and it really has a Best Picture quality, but thanks to the current AMPAS voting system for the Best Picture category, I won't be shocked if Theory doesn't make part of the shortlist. It is nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama, for the Critics' Choice Award of Best Film and it managed to get a nod for the SAG Award of Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture, but I'm don't think this one is a sure thing.
10. Interstellar
Director: Christopher Nolan
In theaters: November 7, 2014 (US wide release)
US box-office: $177.4M
COMMENT: Nolan's less well received movie of his career as a director, there were too high expectations around Interstellar that didn't come to reality and it shows in a less warm critical reception (something we are not used to from a Christopher Nolan movie) - the reviews were mostly positive by far, but not enthusiastic. It has been collecting a huge amount of accolades in the technical fields (score, editing, production desing, cinematography, visual effects and sound), but not in Best Picture/Film categories. No matter what, there's no way to deny who easy is to be amazed with the cinematic experience as a whole and there's some deeply affecting scenes. Not perfect, but ambitious, we can't forget sometimes the Academy loves ambition and "more" might be seen as "better", so I won't count Interstellar out.
COMMENT: A jaw dropping Christmas opening with $212,500 4-day per-theater average (only 10 theaters) and it is gaining some Oscar buzz. American Sniper is building momentum and it benefits from the early support of the National Board of Review that named it the Best Film of 2014. With someone as Clint Eastwood behind the camera and the fresh Oscar buzz around this one, don't be surprise if American Sniper suddenly becomes a Best Picture nominee (I had a hard time choosing between Sniper and Interstellar for #10 of my predictions).
12. Into the Woods
COMMENT: I don't remember the last time Disney had a live-action movie nominated for Best Picture... While some might claim Into the Woods is too much fantasy for the Academy's tastes, I must remember some folks this movie is making A LOT OF MONEY, it has been collecting strong reviews and it has the Disney machine campaigning. The all-star ensemble cast does help and so it does the popularity of the source material. The AMPAS might not be composed by children, but some members might love all the magic that surrounds Into the Woods.
13. Nightcrawler
COMMENT: Call me crazy, but Nightcrawler is getting huge support from major precursor awards. It is not the Academy's cup of tea, but it benefits from being so unique. It will become a cult movie no matter what. Will Oscar voters go for something really really different? I couldn't exclude Nightcrawler from my top contenders, not after its Critics Choice Award nominations, its Eddie Awards nod, multiple critics associations accolades and the recognition from American Film Institute as one of the 10 best films of the year.
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