Academy Awards 2017 nominees predictions - FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE + BEST DIRECTOR + BEST ACTOR & ACTRESS + BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR & ACTRESS + SCREENPLAY categories

• BEST PICTURE

1. LA LA LAND

One of the movies of the year. It's likely to become the most Oscar nominated movie of this year's edition and it's the current front runner for the Academy Award for Best Picture. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling's movie stars' charisma will play in its advantage and Damien Chazelle's status as the favorite in the Best Director field also improves by large La La Land's Oscar dreams. Being a box-office success, having a huge fanbase, having the internet going crazy for it and being one of the most well-reviewd movies of the year... the perfect contender!

2. MOONLIGHT

It's a beautiful drama! Beautifully shot with amazing acting performances all around and a very sensitive directing touch, Barry Jenkins' Moonlight might work as a proof against a #OscarSoWhite wave. Sometimes the AMPAS don't go for musicals when it comes to give the Oscar for Best Picture and if they go for a drama, this one is the strongest contender then. With a well-deserved Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama win and the huge recognition from all the major award organizations (and tons of #1 spots at Best Films of the Year lists) and with a huge fanbase, Moonlight is one top contender by far.

3. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

A movie made based on great acting and a sharp screenplay that certainly will be the favorite for fans of more traditional filmmaking and great acting (the whole ensemble does an exceptional work!). The movie will also please the members of the indie community that certainly will split between this one and Moonlight for sure. Under crazy Oscar buzz since its Sundance Film Festival release in last years' edition, Manchester by the Sea is a contender that can compete for a win!

4. HELL OR HIGH WATER

A neo-western as thrilling as it is full of soul, Hell or High Water can be called the sleeper hit of the year until critics decided to recognize its greatness. With a message about "financial/economical invasion" and three fantastic leading men, this one will please some younger voters and seduce western-lovers. Since it is expected to do decent in screenplay and technical categories, this one is a solid Best Picture contender for a nomination.

5. ARRIVAL

The Academy tends to go for big contenders in the technical categories and La La Land aside, Denis Villeneuve's Arrival is likely to become the second most Oscar nominated movie of the year. More than a critical darling and a showcase vehicle for Amy Adams, Arrival is a box-office hit and it gained a huge fanbase. Plus, it stars Amy Adams and Oscar voters simply love her. The huge support from the guilds gave Arrival a huge Oscar boost and it went from an Oscar hopeful to one of the biggest Oscar players.

6. HACKSAW RIDGE

Mel Gibson might be one of the most hated men in Hollywood and the Academy might have feel some resistance when it comes to nominate him for Best Director, but I feel they won't resist about nominating Hacksaw Ridge for Best Picture. It's kinda simple: Oscar voters love war movies and Gibson's latest is a great cinematic spectacle with some amazing visual and sound work - everything we can ask from a great war movie. It did great during precursor awards and it's a popular and commercial success.

7. HIDDEN FIGURES

The movie is a box-office hit during its first week of release, beating Rogue One for the #1 spot at the box-office and critics raved this one. It's a movie about three black women and a welcome addition to AMPAS defense against #OscarSoWhite. Plus, it stars three awesome leading ladies with some Oscar chances and once the movie is being so well-received by audiences... it can happen easily. Plus, it tells us the real-life story about equality behind a historic moment which Oscar voters have always loved.

8. CAPTAIN FANTASTIC

Well, call me crazy, but I believe that SAG nod for Best Ensemble was no happy accident (and the Academy is composed by a lot of actors). In fact, in a time most Hollywood names complain about Trump and his ideas, Captain Fantastic would be a subtle antagonist message for the elected USA President. Captain Fantastic is pure and it is really heartfelt and those who watch it simply love it! It's a kind of movie who might get enough #1 votes. It missed some crucial Best Film nominations from critics associations and other organizations, but it has a big couple of audience awards - the proof people love this little cinematic gem!

9. NOCTURNAL ANIMALS

Tom Ford's latest was a huge sensation at Venice Film Festival, with rave reviews and also some accusations of "style over substance", but truth be told: it is a movie that sticks into your mind once you watch it. The BAFTA went all crazy for this one and so did a lot of critics associations and the Golden Globes nominated it in 3 categories! According to some foruns, there's a divisive reaction to the movie in LA, but those who loved this one for real are more than just a few. Plus, it is a beautiful film and it stars... Amy Adams!

10. SILENCE

Well, Martin Scorsese's latest was too silent during precursor award season and it got ignored by major award organizations (being completely snubed by the BAFTA!!!), but the AMPAS always loved Scorsese. Since 2000 the only Scorsese movie which didn't get a Best Picture nom (and no nod at all) was Shutter Island - I expect Silence to be nominated since it got rave reviews and there are a lot of Oscar campaign behind the cameras. Plus: it is a passion project and an epic period piece about religion.

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11. LION - A lot of award recognition during the precursor awards, but I don't know anyone who says it is their #1 movie of the year. I wouldn't surprise if it becomes the unexpected snub in a couple of categories. It missed the writers guild nod... which can mean a lot! I know Garth Davis was nominated by the DGA and the PGA also nominated Lion, but the Academy always don't nominate at least one or two PGA nominee for Best Picture.

12. FENCES - It's an acting showcase and the screenplay is brilliant, but Washington only starred ONE Best Picture nominated movie (in the 80's). People aren't enthusiastic about Fences as a movie itself.

13. I, DANIEL BLAKE - The BAFTA fell in love for this one and so did the European Film Awards. If AMPAS members get curious about this one, it might well get a big couple of #1 votes. The movie is outstanding!

14. LOVING - Jeff Nichols assured his position as a respectable filmmaker and Loving tells an important story by the eyes of a couple. It worked more as a vehicle for Oscar recognition in acting for its leads than a Best Picture contender.

15. HAIL, CAESAR! - Oscar voters have always had a kind of irrational love for the Coen brothers always fine work and Hail, Caesar! got some recognition by critics in Best Comedy categories... if the Academy wants some Coen comedy, this one has enough charm to be some people's top choice.

• BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle has a nomination in the bag for his work in La La Land. Barry Jenkins is also under huge Oscar heat, but sometimes the Academy goes for atrocious snubs and this black director who brought us a gay drama is a serious candidate to a win but also a serious candidate to a big snub for a magnificent achievement in directing in Moonlight. Sundance hit Manchester by the Sea is directed with a sensitive approach by Kenneth Lonergan, who, in spite of being an even better writer than director, is very likely to get a Best Director nod considering the love around his movie. After Incendies, Prisoners and Sicario, Denis Villeneuve is on his way to a first Oscar nomination for the critically acclaimed sci-fi and box-office hit Arrival. And the fifth spot is a true question mark... Tom Ford, Scorsese, Gibson and Garth Davies are at the same stage of the race, but I'll go for Tom Ford thanks to Nocturnal Animals' sudden late Oscar heat - Ford finds an effective balance between directing style and visual splendor and narrative (and both the Golden Globes and BAFTA Awards nominated him for Best Director, so he has enough precursor support).

1. Damien Chazelle for La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
5. Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals

6. Martin Scorsese for Silence - The movie underperformed during awards season and got totally ignored by the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards... but the only Scorsese movie the AMPAS didn't nominate in the 2000's was Shutter Island and Silence is a totally different movie (much more "Oscary"). An epic passion project from one of the Hollywood Masters - don't count Scorsese out!

7. Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge - If Gibson wasn't one of Hollywood's top enemies, he would have a Best Director nod in the bag since the war epic is a lot about directing work. Will the Oscar voters show some mad love for the movie and nominate him? I believe if Gibson gets recognized it will be because the AMPAS loves redemption stories.

8. Garth Davies for Lion - He got a double nomination at the DGA (best director and best director debut) and in spite of Lion has been losing traction, it has a large fanbase and the movie appeals to the hearts.

• BEST ACTOR

Both Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington (Fences) can be considered locks for Best Actor, both delivering the best performances of their respective careers and not getting nominated seems just impossible. Gosling stars the biggest Oscar favorite so far (La La Land) and he's fresh for Golden Globe glory, so a nomination seems very likely to happen, but we can't forget Oscar voters often snub musicals' leading men, no matter how charming they are. Mortensen walked a long road to be so ahead in the Oscar race that I believe the AMPAS won't deny him a nod for such a charismatic performance - Captain Fantastic began as a small indie, film festival darling, to a serious award player! Andrew Garfield is really fine in Hacksaw Ridge, but the movie is losing traction... of course Silence works as a bonus point for Garfield, but if Silence is welcome in the AMPAS circle can the young actor be a victim of vote splitting and miss the nomination or will he get nominated for Silence? Hacksaw Ridge offers him a much more popular and heroic character that fits the Oscar voters tastes...

1. Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington for Fences
3. Ryan Gosling for La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge / Silence

6. Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals - Given the sudden late Oscar traction Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals got from the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards and given the mad love (mad hate, but mad hate doesn't vote), I can see Gyllenhaal getting nominated. It's not one of the year's best performances in the field but it's a very fine one and since Gyllenhaal got that atrocious snub for Nightcrawler... It can happen!

7. Adam Driver for Paterson - A performance everybody loves! If enough people watch the movie, I wouldn't count Adam Driver out, specially since Andrew Garfield's status at the race is fragile. Paterson is considered one of the best independent productions of the year and Driver is named one of the best actors of the new generation... it's enough of a good reputation for the AMPAS' popularity contest.

8. Tom Hanks for Sully - Hanks was born to play airline pilot Captain Chesley 'Sully' Sullenberger, delivering a great performance. I know he missed nods from the Golden Globes or the SAG, but Hanks got their support plus BAFTA's for Captain Phillips and he missed an Oscar nod so... No matter what, Tom Hanks keeps in the race for Sully thanks to its performance alone, but don't forget Clint Eastwood directed the movie and the AMPAS loves Eastwood.

• BEST ACTRESS

Emma Stone shines bright in La La Land and given the movie's brilliant Oscar prospects it is sure the young actress will score her second Oscar nomination, this time in the Best Actress category. Natalie Portman stars Jackie which is no award champion, but she carries the whole movie and no one can steal her credit for that - she was the critics favorite and scored Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG nominations, so I count hearing her name during the nominations announcement morning. Elle got excluded from the 9 final contenders for Best Foreign Picture, but Isabelle Huppert is still in the game for a Best Actress Oscar nomination (her overdue first Oscar nomination) and after that Golden Globe for Best Actress - Drama win, she became a favorite (in spite of no SAG recognition and she wasn't eligible for the BAFTA). Amy Adams stars the successful Arrival and she's likely to get nominated after all the precursors recognition - you know, Oscar voters simply love her and they will keep nominating her. The fifth spot is a ferocious battle between Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins and Ruth Negga for Loving, but I believe the AMPAS will be seduced about nominating an amazing breakthrough performance from such a unique beauty like Negga (and she's being promoting herself quite well). 

1. Emma Stone for La La Land
2. Natalie Portman for Jackie
3. Isabelle Huppert for Elle
4. Amy Adams for Arrival
5. Ruth Negga for Loving

6. Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins - Queen of Hollywood and I'm still thinking about how unwise I am for not predicting her taking one of the 5 spots of the Best Actress nominees shortlist... That acceptance speech at the Golden Globes sure earned her a lot of last minute votes and I believe if she gets nominated it will be thanks to that speech PLUS being so good at being the worst singer in the world.

7. Annette Bening for 20th Century Women - She delivers a beautiful performance, but getting snubed by the SAG and by the BAFTA was a huge punch in Bening's Oscar hopes. Sure she irradiates the screen in 20th Century Women and her beautifully written character is a tribute to Mike Mills (director) mother, but Best Actress is just too good this year! It's her best performance since American Beauty, so maybe she will be able to collect enough votes, but I don't see it coming.

8. Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train - No matter how trashy the movie adaptation of The Girl on the Train is, if the AMPAS want to nominate Emily Blunt they just will do it. She's great in the role, the only good thing about the movie actually, and the Oscar voters love characters who need psychiatric help! Plus, Blunt is overdue for her first Oscar nod, don't forget! A nod can happen!

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Moonlight features some incredible supporting performances from male actors, but I have to agree Mahershal Ali's is the most remarkable one and both critics and award organizations recognized the same - Ali collected most of the critics associations prizes for Best Supporting Actor and he was nominated for the Golden Globe, BAFTA Award and SAG Award in the same category, so an Oscar nominations just seems natural to happen. Jeff Bridges uses his magnetic charisma to shine in the acclaimed neo-western Hell or High Water and the AMPAS has always showed a lot of sympathy for his work (and since the movie is a Best Picture frontrunner, an Oscar nod is locked). Aaron Taylor-Johnson is dazzling as the amoral villain of Nocturnal Animals and he won the Golden Globe of Best Supporting Actor for this performance (and got a BAFTA nomination) - and the Academy loves psychopaths! Lion is backed by The Weinsten Company which is a bonus points during an Oscar campaign and Dev Patel might benefit from the category fraud that put him in the Best Supporting Actor category for his inspiring leading performance as Lion's likable hero. After that big snub for Four Wedding and a Funeral, Hugh Grant is back to golden talk for his great performance in Florence Foster Jenkins, more than holding himself against Meryl Streep and getting major award recognition thanks to a "too obvious" category fraud of his co-leading performance.

1. Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
3. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals
4. Dev Patel for Lion
5. Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins

6. Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals - Tom Ford's latest is under fire last weeks and it features great great performance, being Shannon's the most brilliant one. After huge amounts of critics nods, he missed the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the SAG noms that would make him a solid contender, losing his chances to his co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson. But let's not forget when Oscar voters go crazy in love for a movie they don't mind giving 2 nods in the same supporting acting category, so...

7. Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea - One of 2016's revelations, Lucas Hedges was outstanding in Manchester by the Sea, but some claim he's too young for the AMPAS tastes. Even if Manchester by the Sea scores big at the nominations announcement morning, I believe Hedges still might not get nominated - Affleck and Williams are the ones who are getting much of the credit.

8. Alden Ehrenreich for Hail, Caesar! - If the Academy really love the Hail, Caesar! and his performance as a whole fanbase did, Ehrenreich might get one of those surprise Oscar nominations. He steals the whole movie from Josh Brolin and this young actor is a promising star! Plus, Oscar voters like the Coen brothers movies, so they will watch Hail, Caesar! for sure, at least.

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

She could have campaigned for Best Actress and she would be the frontrunner no matter what... in fact, Viola Davis delivers a true tour-de-force performance in Fences and no one can deny it is one of the best performances ever - truly remarkable and a awards magnet! On the other hand, Michelle Williams is a true supporting actress with such a limited screen in Manchester by the Sea time but she gives her all during the few scenes she has - she's a lock and she could be a front-runner for a win if Davis was placed leading. Naomie Harris takes on one of the most tricky female roles of 2016 and she's able to build an extremely complex character during the movie's three acts of Moonlight - and adding to a huge number of Best Acting Ensemble awards, she got the attentions of all the precursors and she's on her road to an Oscar nomination. Hidden Figures is an extremely popular box-office hit and critical favorite and in spite of Octavia Spencer not being as good as Janelle Monáe in this movie, she has one key scene against Kirsten Dunst that screams "Give me the Oscar nod!" and the Academy might just feel safer about nominating a previous Oscar-winner. Then I bet on Hayley Squires for I, Daniel Blake - the movie was a sensation at the BAFTA which called many attentions to this litlle beautiful movie and once you watch it, you can't help but feel more human thanks to Squires beautiful performance! It's the suffering mom spot she might steal from Nicole Kidman.

1. Viola Davis for Fences
2. Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomie Harris for Moonlight
4. Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
5. Hayley Squires for I, Daniel Blake

6. Nicole Kidman for Lion - It has been a while since Rabbit Hole and they might feel motivated to nominate her once more, but Lion is losing traction and 2016 was a great year for female supporting roles...! She's moving and Oscar voters love crying moms and Kidman did well between the precursors. An Oscar nod can happen if AMPAS doesn't go for Hayley Squires.

7. Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women - The movie is great and it features its cast best performances ever. After Greenberg and Frances Ha she got a serious reputation as one of the best actresses of the new generation and she got a meaty character and she delivers some drama...! But she missed the Golden Globes, BAFTA and SAG Awards essential nominations (specially for an actor's performance in a small production like 20th Century Women).

8. Janelle Monáe for Hidden Figures - This singer-turned-actress delivers the best performance from the leading trio of Hidden Figures and she also shines in a supporting part in Moonlight. In fact, Monáe had such an impressive breakthrough year with two great performances, with enough support from the main awards organizations, and the Oscar voters have these things under serious consideration when it comes to vote. But, they seem resistant about recognizing singers-went-actors lately.

• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
2. Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
3. La La Land, Damien Chazelle
4. The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou
5. Captain Fantastic, Matt Ross

6. I, Daniel Blake, Paul Laverty
7. 20th Century Women, Mike Mills
8. Toni Erdmann, Maren Ade

• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight, Barry Jenkins
2. Arrival, Eric Heisserer
3. Nocturnal Animals, Tom Ford
4. Fences, August Wilson
5. Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi

6. Lion, Luke Davies
7. Loving, Jeff Nichols
8. Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman