Finally, I've seen Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird! And this movie is just so damn good! But while I'm still sceptical about having her as a frontrunner for Best Director, I must admit it can happen to her in the same way it happened to Jason Reitman for Juno back in 2007/8! In fact, both movies star charismatic title characters (and actresses), both excel in the screenplay departments and both have sensitive minds behind the camera. Will Lady Bird be this year's Juno? I bet things can do a bit better to Gerwig's directorial debut... shame the AMPAS doesn't go for female directors that often!
About, Lady Bird's Best Picture dreams... Well, I won't include my Best Picture predictions here, but soon I will post my Best Picture predictions. "Yes!", Lady Bird will appear between my 10 first choices, I assure you.
- BEST DIRECTOR
Good news for Gerwig, bad news for Dee Rees... and for Joe Wright. With Lady Bird gaining traction, I bet it will get a lot of #1 votes for Best Picture and if it does happen, I can see Darkest Hour losing votes - because if some "actors' movie" goes nominated it will be Lady Bird or/and Mudbound. Now, between Gerwig and Rees, I guess last weeks have given advantage to Gerwig. I know she's not a black director, but she could be "easier to nominate" than Rees. No matter what there will be vote split between them and I can only see one of them making it to the final nominees shortlist. Or maybe none of them will get it and we will have to wait for another year full of great works from a female director!
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post
4. Sean Baker, The Florida Project
5. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out
8. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
9. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
10. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- BEST ACTRESS
I had high expectations about Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game since she seemed the most suitable choice from the Best Actress contenders to take the prize home, but since I've seen Ronan in Lady Bird, I think she can win this one! I was asking myself who would take the 5th spot of the Best Actress nominees shortlist, but now all the contenders seem to huge players. Ronan is young, the character is charismatic and Lady Bird is the most acclaimed movie (ever) according to Rotten Tomatoes. She's the frontrunner... let's see the precursor awards season.
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
2. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
6. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
7. Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
8. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
9. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
10. Diane Kruger, In the Fade
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
2. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
6. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
7. Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
8. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
9. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
10. Diane Kruger, In the Fade
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I've been already predicting Laurie Metcalf for Best Supporting Actress, but after watching the movie, I think it will be about Allison Janney (I, Tonya) Vs Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird). In some parts, she's almost a co-lead, but the sparkle between her and Ronan is beautiful to watch. A mom in crisis with a daughter in crisis... AMPAS loves moms! And now, if you allow me to do so, I'll change a couple of names in my predictions charts...
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blidge, Mudbound
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
5. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
6. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
7. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
If there's some category Greta Gerwig is a lock, it is Best Original Screenplay. Lady Bird has memorable lines and it has beautiful ideas and little messages inside. It's a "girl power" screenplay which is likely to get an Oscar nomination. Even if Gerwig misses Best Director, a Best Original Screenplay nom will happen as a consolation prize or for its own merit.
1. The Big Sick
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Phantom Thread
6. The Post
7. The Florida Project
8. The Shape of Water
9. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
10. Darkest Hour
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