It is a wonderful year for Best Picture category and Oscar in general: so much diversity this year! From period pieces, to war movies, to romantic comedies... It's been quite a year! This year has proved quite a challenge to predict Academy Award nominations. This year's Time's Up media attentions, the ghost of #OscarsSoWhite and the rising issues of films about women / films made by women will be seen as some of the biggest factors that will drive AMPAS' members votes. And let's not forget we live in the Trump era...! But let's never forget the Academy members don't always go for the greatness of individual achievments only: if they fall in love for a movie, they'll love it madly and it will be reflected when nominations are announced.
- BEST PICTURE
The category ruled by the #1 vote: nominated films must earn either 5% of first-place rankings or 5% after an abbreviated variation of the single transferable vote nominating process, so that the number of films nominated is between 5 and 10. So here's the question - what are the most appealing movies of the year? Well, the first movies coming to my mind are Lady Bird (it seems a portray of your own teenage years in some way), The Shape of Water (a beautiful fairy-tale easy to fall in love with that has just won the PGA), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (a tale of grief and a mother-power story) and The Florida Project (innocence, poverty and unconditional love... just heartbreaking!). Then you have a light, fresh and funny contender like The Big Sick which appeals to younger AMPAS members and can work as the multicultural-friendly Best Picture nominee (a kind of nominee the Academy needs this year). In the "universally acclaimed features" there's Call Me By Your Name (a movie that also appeals to the heart), Get Out (destined to become a cult-movie loved by young AMPAS members and arthouse lovers), Dunkirk, Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour. And then you have the "perfect Best Picture nominee", Steven Spielberg's The Post and, finally, you have a piece of cinematic diplomacy called And let's not count out Phantom Thread, I, Tonya out nor Mudbound, since both have devout fans.
- #11: Phantom Thread
- #12: Mudbound
- #13: Darkest Hour
- BEST DIRECTOR
Will 2017 be remembered as "year of the auteurs"? All the strongest Best Director contenders happen to be artist who directed and wrote their movies: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Sean Baker (The Florida Project), Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) or Dee Rees (Mudbound). The exception? The living legend Steven Spielberg (The Post) and the British Joe Wright (Darkest Hour). Note that Spielberg is the only previous Best Director-nominated player and that both Gerwig and Peele are contending for their directorial debuts! Nolan is the real overdue-for-a-nom player here and people seem determined to end his non-existent Best Director nominations score. Best Picture front-runners' directors are likely to get nominated (del Toro and McDonagh), with Gerwig getting the nod due the recent wave of "support movies made by women" (which will persuade even the more conservative members), while Nolan is a strong contender because of his craft alone. The last spot will be a battle between Peele x Spielberg x Baker... yeah! Baker! I've a feeling the Academy will be in love for The Florida Project!
- #6: Jordan Peele for Get Out
- #7: Steven Spielberg for The Post
- #8: Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name
- BEST ACTOR
- #6: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
- #7: Tom Hanks, The Post
- #8: Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
- #9: Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
- BEST ACTRESS
And the other contenders are:
- #6. Meryl Streep, The Post
- #7. Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
- #8: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
- #9: Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
- #10: Diane Kruger, In the Fade
And someday, someone will have to explain me what happened to Cynthia Nixon's (A Quiet Passion) Oscar buzz or why the hell Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth) didn't translate to major precursor award support....
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) was the sole frontrunner at one point in time, receiving "best performance of his career" kind of reviews and taking home a big couple of critics associations' awards, but then Sam Rockwell raised thanks to Three Billboards unexpected award momentum and he took home both the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor. These two are the only secure names in my predictions, with Richard Jenkins coming third thanks to the gay factor of his performance and The Shape of Water's Best Picture enthusiasm. I bet on Christopher Plummer, not only because he dazzles in All the Money in the World, but also because the Academy will think about recognizing him as a way to send a clear message: we don't approve sexual harassment (like Kevin Spacey's, who got replaced by Plummer in this movie because of the scandal). The last spot will be a battle between two Call Me By Your Name men: Armie Hammer, the co-lead (AMPAS loves category fraud) and Michael Stuhlbarg, the man with a moving monologue (Oscar clip) - but I'll go for Hammer who got more award recognition and because he's the object of Chalamet character's obsession and you kinda fall in love for him too (and I'm a straight guy). Woody Harrelson comes 7th for his performance as a dying good cop in Three Billboards (unexpected SAG nomination and BAFTA nomination), but I still think he can make the final 5 because he's the most sympathetic character in the movie. Steve Carell for the Battle of the Sexes is based purely on the precursor award support - it is a good performance, but not an Oscary one, still the AMPAS might want to give visibility to gender gap topic the movie is about.
And the other contenders are:
- #6: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- #7: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
- #8: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Jason Mitchell and Garrett Hedlund should have gotten more Oscar buzz for their dynamite performances in Mudbound. Such a beautiful duo of actors! And what about Tracy Letts and Lucas Hedges for Lady Bird? Also both amazing, both got no Oscar traction....
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This category is all about mothers: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), the struggling mother; Allison Janney (I, Tonya), the abusive mother; Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water), the typical black mamma (with no children); Mary J. Blidge (Mudbound), the suffering mother; and Holly Hunter (The Big Sick), the mother on the verge of a nervous breakdown. All them deliver amazing performances. All them deserve a spot, but I feel Blidge and Hunter might get snubed since their movies don't fit the "prestige picture" - well, Mudbound is a prestige picture, but since it is a Netflix production.... it isn't prestige anymore! And then you have the single ladies club. Hong Chau is the only great thing about Downsizing and she carries the movie when she's on screen and major precursor awards noticed it (Globes, SAG and Critics' Choice nominated her, so an Oscar nom is still likely to happen, but the movie isn't good). Lesley Manville deserves an Oscar nomination and Phantom Thread might be a perfect vehicle for it: it's a scene-stealing part and she's memorable. Then you have the charismatic comedic gold, Tiffanny Haddish, who's the light of the raunchy female comedy Girls Trip and she can make Melissa McCarthy-kind of nom happen again (but she missed Globes and SAG, so.....). Finally, if the Academy really embraces The Florida Project, they might go for one of the year's acting revelations: Instagram star Bria Vinaite, who's a on-screen force as the single struggling young mother of Monee - and her final scenes are heartbreaking!
And the other contenders are:
- #6: Lesley Manville, Phatom Thread
- #7: Hong Chau, Downsizing
- #8: Tiffanny Haddish, Girls Trip
- #9: Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project
- #10: Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Michelle Pfeiffer for mother! or Murder On the Orient Express, anyone? It would be a perfect end for her comeback year! She's scene-stealing in both movies. And what about Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) getting a nomination here thanks to category fraud? It can happen, people still discuss who's the leading lady: Vinaite or Brooklynn? Well, my answer is Brooklynn. And don't exclude Tatiana Maslany for Stronger, since she's great in that one and AMPAS loves movies that make its members cry (and she's the perfect young talented estabilished actress they like to nominate).
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- #1: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- #2: Jordan Peele, Get Out
- #3: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- #4: Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
- #5: Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor & Daniel Kraus, The Shape of Water
- #6: Liz Hannah & Josh Singer, The Post
- #7: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
- #8: Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- #1: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
- #2: Dee Rees & Virgil Williams, Mudbound
- #3: Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
- #4: Scott Neustadter & Michael Weber, The Disaster Artist
- #5: James Gray, The Lost City of Z
- #6: Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green, Logan
- #7: Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad & Stephen Chbosky, Wonder
- #8: Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
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