Golden Globes 2018 winners - How does it affect Oscar nominations?

The Golden Globes happened!!

Here are the nominees list of each category with the winners in yellow.
Just have a look: 


BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

• Call Me by Your Name
• Dunkirk
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I can't say I wasn't expecting, but I admit I predicted The Shape of Water to win. Given the main character's nature (a strong independent woman who's not afraid to stand-up) I believe it is a perfect Drama winner at this year's edition Golden Globes (that was all about gender equality). I believe this "female power" will keep this strong until the last Oscar voters send their ballots, so I'm expecting Three Billboards to appear at the top categories' nominees shortlists.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY / MUSICAL

• The Disaster Artist
• Get Out
• The Greatest Showman
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird

I was afraid Get Out could win here. Worse: I was afraid I, Tonya could win here! But thank God it was Greta Gerwig's directorial debut Lady Bird. Another movie about a female character (let me say "about another strong female character), just like Three Billboards. Lady Bird seems a lock for a Best Picture nomination now, specially after Gerwig's moving and highly personal acceptance speech (which can elevate her Best Director chances too). For me, the big/best winner of the night!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

An easy bet: Coco seems to be the sole potential Best Animated Feature winner in every award (with Loving Vincent winning the more "artistic-friendly" prizes). Critically acclaimed and a box-office success, Disney's Coco seems destined to take home "that golden man named Oscar". An obvious winner!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• A Fantastic Woman
• First They Killed My Father
• In the Fade
• Loveless
• The Square

Well, I expected First They Killed My Father to win here due to Angelina Jolie's star power and the HFPA love for her, but it was another female-centric movie winning: In the Fade (Germany) starred by Diane Kruger. Its leading lady excels in this movie and maybe it was what made the HFPA fall for this one - an international star delivering the best performance of her career.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

• Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Meryl Streep, The Post
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Well, she doesn't do "celebrity" well, to be honest, but since the HFPA was all over Three Billboards she was the natural choice for Best Actress - Drama. It's her first Golden Globe win for an individual performance (she won a special ensemble award for Robert Altman's Short Cuts back in 1994). This win makes me believe the Academy Award for Best Actress will be McDormand vs Saoirse Ronan...

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
• Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Tom Hanks, The Post
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel Esq.

They love real-life / historic characters, so Oldman was an obvious pic. Winston Churchill is a charismatic personality and Oldman's impersonation of the British figure is pitch-perfect. Some people were hoping about Chalamet (including myself), but Oldman's performance has everything the Globes love.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
• Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

RONAN! This one is for all the I, Tonya fanatics. I don't want to celebrate way too soon (in terms of Oscar nominations), but her win was like a wishful thinking come true, since Robbie's role/character/showy performance was much more HFPA-friendly on paper. The best performance of the year gets the recognition it deserves from a major precursor award!  Maybe it was because Lady Bird is a character easy to fall in love with while Tonya Harding is such a toxic character. Cheers!

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
• Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
• James Franco, The Disaster Artist
• Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

A lot of people were expecting Kaluuya here, but I my money was on Franco. No matter what, he plays a real-life figure - Tommy Wiseau - who "just" happens to be an "actor". And you know how Hollywood loves actors playing actors! Plus, Franco deserves this one since he's one of the best and most working actors working today. A deft comedic actor, The Disaster Artist was made for Franco, who found his best role since Spring Breakers.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - MOTION PICTURE

• Mary J Blige, Mudbound
• Hong Chau, Downsizing
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Since I, Tonya lost Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical and Best Actress - Comedy or Musical to Lady Bird, then it seems HFPA felt pitty for I, Tonya so they rewarded Allison Janney in this one (and I think it's fair!). Monster-mom roles are always good fun and Janney is terrific as Tonya Harding's mother. A delicious performance that elevates such an average movie. We all knew it was going to be between Janney and Metcalf and Janney won. The Oscars will be between them two again for sure: who will win then?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - MOTION PICTURE

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

While some argue Rockwell's performance is a pure caricature of the bad cop with a hidden heart made of gold, it was expected since HFPA didn't show any love for The Florida Project in other categories. Willem Dafoe delivers the best supporting performance by a male actor of the year (it's a fact!), but Three Billboards' recent award heat and Rockwell's Golden Globe win sets a Dafoe vs Rockwell battle coming Oscar time (if both get nominated, of course).

BEST DIRECTOR

• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
• Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
• Steven Spielberg, The Post

The Shape of Water wins here, with del Toro being awarded with the GG for Best Director. He deserves it! He seems a lock coming Oscar noms morning and the strongest contender for a win - the brilliant director with one of the most creative minds ever. Well done! I confess I feared a Martin McDonagh win here because of all the Three Billboards madness!

BEST SCREENPLAY

• The Shape of Water
• Lady Bird
• The Post
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Molly’s Game

It seems the Globes nominated mostly original screenplays and since they don't differentiate original from adapted screenplay, it doesn't have a huge impact in terms of predicting Oscar nominations. Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri takes another GG in this category, which makes it a sure contender for an Oscar nom... Wait! Steve Jobs (2015) also won in this category but missed Oscar nod.... hmmmm!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• The Post
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Dunkirk

After years and years of getting nominated and losing everytime (he won for 2006's The Painted Veil but missed an Oscar nom), Alexander Desplat finally wins a Golden Globe for his The Shape of Water score. A beautiful score and it solidifies his Oscar chances.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Home" – Ferdinand 
• "Mighty River" – Mudbound
• "Remember Me" – Coco
• "The Star" – The Star
• "This Is Me" –The Greatest Showman

The HFPA loves musicals! Golden Globe wins in this category don't always translate into Oscar nominations, but it is a big win for such a mediocre film. "Mighty River", "Remember Me" and "The Star" look more Oscary than The Greatest Showman song... Personally I would go for "Mighty River", a song by Mary J. Blidge who went public as a victim of sexual harassment.