- BEST PICTURE
Best Picture... the top Academy Award category! This year is the year of diversity: from comedy to drama, to sci-fi/horror, to musicals, animated features and period pieces... I don't remember an year this rich in terms of Best Picture contenders.
With Venice Film Festival happening right now and Toronto International Film Festival about to start, it's time to publish my early predictions for Academy Awards 2019 - Best Picture nominations.
I'm sorry I had Venice Film Festival reviews under consideration, but they were simply impossible to ignore!
1. BlacKkKlansman
Spike Lee's latest movie met widespread acclaim at this year's edition of Cannes Film Festival (and it took home the Grand Prize of the Jury and it was nominated for the prestigious Palme d'Or) and it is making a lot of money at the box-office, quietly - a total worldwide gross of $55.8M until the first week of September, against a $15M budget. BlacKkKlansman is a smart comedy, filled with charismatic performances and a simple yet A-level directing technique, but its biggest accomplishment is the ability to talk about a serious and delicate matter in such a funny way. White supremacy and the necessity of keeping blacks down, BlacKkKlansman is much more than a police-comedy and it marks a return to form to Spike Lee.
First reviews from Venice are coming and it is said First Man is as showy as it is emotionally satisfying and it seems to be a serious contender for the "most nominated film of the year" at next edition of the Oscars. Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy star a real-life story (not seen as a biopic but more as the story of Armstrong who wanted to go to the moon) and Damien Chazelle proves (once again) he's a real cinematic maestro and that his Best Director Oscar for La La Land is in good hands. First Man seems to fit the taste of a big portion of AMPAS members, plus "Most nominated" films tend to score a Best Picture nod. Another winning collaboration between Chazelle and Gosling!
3. A Star Is Born
We all were expecting A Star Is Born to be a box-office hit... and while no one can really predict the audience's response in terms of box-office, truth is critics who saw Bradley Cooper's directorial debut loved it! Rave reviews for Stefani Germanotta AKA Lady Gaga, raves for Cooper's performance and directorial approach, raves for the music, raves for the sound and editing... A Star Is Born seems destined to become a major cinematic success and a major award contender! It's easy to expect all the Gaga fans paying a ticket to see the music star breakthrough performance in her first big role, but with such critical support and an amazing trailer, it will appeal to a wide spectre of audiences. Plus, the AMPAS loves this story: all the previous 3 adaptations scored Oscar nominations (even the Streisand-Kristofferson remake which was poorly received 4 nods, winning 1) and with the current Best Picture voting system, I believe Cooper's take will score a Best Picture nom.
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
Some people think that 3 great pieces of filmmaking in a row is too much for Barry Jenkins to achieve, specially when expectations are so high after the mesmerizing Best Picture Oscar-winning Moonlight... but If Beale Street Could Talk has an amazing source material - the novel of the same name - and Jenkins has already proved he's a gifted director. Set for a Toronto International Film Festival premiere and competing for the People's Choice Award of TIFF, If Beale Street Could Talk will be playing amongst the big contenders of the year. With an amazing cast and some of the same crew responsible for Moonlight's technical aspects (Nat Sanders in the editing room, Laxton in cinematography and Nicholas Britell composing the original score), Beale Street feels too secure and too A-list to ignore.
5. Roma
Alfonso Cuarón is back and he has returned "home". The Mexican Oscar-winning director brings the Roma to the audiences and Venice Film Festival critics have already declared it some kind of masterpiece that's seems poised to bring Netflix its first Best Picture nomination. It's a personal movie and the AMPAS loves passion projects - Cuarón draws on his own childhood to create a portrait of domestic strife and social hierarchy amidst political turmoil in the 70's Mexico. From 2013's supersized spectacle and greatness of Gravity to 2018's high personal intimacy of the auteur's memories, Roma might not be an English-speaking movie, but according to Venice reactions, it will seduce movie lovers of all parts of the globe - it's filmmaking as an universal language.
6. Black Panther
Disney executives have already admited they will campaign for Black Panther and while there's no detail about the strategy they'll use in order to turn Black Panther in one of the most Oscar-successful superhero movies of all time, there's no way to deny its critical acclaim and box-office success. More than the action sequences, the eye-popping visuals and the traditional plotline of a origins movie, Panther's uniqueness relies on all the family drama and talk about globalization and global responsability that goes on. Ryan Coogler takes the dramatic ingredients he knows best and put them into the superhero soup - the result is an absorving drama with super-powers! It would be one of those crowd-pleaser nominees... but it would be a deserving Best Picture nominee nonetheless.
7. The Rider
It's one of those rare movies you catch when all your hope on filmmaking seems to be fading. Thank God Chloé Zhao offered us The Rider - a movie of an uncommon sensitivity, great camerawork and mesmerizing performances (let me remind you we're talking about non-actors), that also explores the concept of American masculinity. Too good for Oscars? Maybe. Some of the best works in filmmaking of the last 10 years are independent productions, too small to campaign, too small to be seen by enough audiences so that it can gain some award buzz, but there's a big indie community amongst the AMPAS members today, so it can happen! The Rider runs the festivals circuit since 2017, but it only got a US release in April. It got nominated for 5 Independent Spirit Awards (including Best Feature and Best Director) and took home a big ton of film festivals' prizes - and it is impossible not to love this one after you watch it.
8. A Quiet Place
John Krasinski breakthrough work as a director is one of the most critical acclaimed box-office hits of the year. No one was seeing such a success coming, grossing $332.6M worldwide. But A Quiet Place is no empty sci-fi/horror movie: it is full of heart and it works as an essay about good/bad parenting. Full of high-tension moments, with "hold my breath" moments all around and a strong ability to fully absorve an audience, A Quiet Place is more than a movie, it is a cinematic experience. Never the silence was this scary. It's an highly original and crafted movie and I expect Oscar voters to have this one under serious consideration. It can score enough #1 votes for sure at the end of the year if producers campaign for the movie in order to keep in AMPAS voters' minds how great it is.
9. The Favourite
The AMPAS hasn't been much in love about royalty tales, but reviews from Venice Film Festival are quite enthusiastic about Yorgos Lanthimos' latest movie - The Favourite, a three-women show about two noblewomen fighting for Queen Anne's attention aiming for power and social status. It's said to be Lanthimos most "digestive" movie of his career, so far - not too arthouse for "mainstream awards" then. The director's reputation, Olivia Colman's mad Oscar buzz for her performance, Stone and Weisz's Hollywood popularity and the defense of feminist values are some of the main factors that elevate The Favourite to Best Picture contender status. But...! It is said to not be the period piece cup of tea: a violent, filthy riot in corsets featuring a lesbian love triangle... Well, at least it's good to know Lanthimos didn't sacrifice his eye for the grotesque! The Favourite might be a not-safe contender thanks to its uniqueness.
10. Isle of Dogs
Wes Anderson is one of the most beloved and respected auteurs working these days and he presented us one of the best movies of the year early this March. Isle of Dogs might be an animated feature, but it is not a movie for children alone - it features a sharp social commentary, a political message and a love letter to dogs and children's dreams. It's a charming story in a beautiful gorgeous to look at from the stop-motion figures to the production design work... Isle of Dogs has all the trademarks of an Anderson movie and I believe it will be reminded as a major classic from its director. The AMPAS members have already learned how to love Anderson's work in recent years and since Isle of Dogs is also a serious contender for a Best Original Screenplay nomination... Will the Best Original Screenplay + Best Animated Feature buzz elevate its Best Picture chances? Maybe! It's quite a charming film.11. Peterloo - Mike Leigh's upcoming movie received warm reviews at Venice Film Festival, but not that enthusiastic. It's a well-made movie, but it seems it didn't touch people... But when the AMPAS wants to honour a director and go more rational about a movie, a Best Picture nomination can happen!
12. Eight Grade - A social portray about today's teens. Eight Grade is as real as it is moving. A down-to-earth approach about the social pressure on teens, their dreams and their goals. It is doing amazing in its limited release (the highest per-screen average of the year so far, if I'm not wrong) and the AMPAS sometimes loves young auteurs - and director/writer Bo Burnham proves to be a talent to watch!
13. Backseat - For some reason, Adam McKay's upcoming movie is losing buzz... Maybe it's because of this year's fierce competition and people are paying more attention to other movies or simply because Oscar folks are more interested about Christian Bale, Amy Adams and Sam Rockwell's acting than in the movie itself. It can surprise... Let's wait.
14. The Death and Life of John F. Donovan - People don't really know what Xavier Dolan's upcoming movie is really about, but truth is Dolan delayed the movie because he wanted it to be better. Picky?! Dolan is known for paying attention to detail and he has a few remarkable movies on his resume as a director this young. A stellar ensemble cast and amazing movie stills... It is said to be a queer movie and since Boy Erased and The Miseducation of Cameron Post are not really Best Picture players, John F. Donovan might steal the show!
15. Mary Poppins Returns - A Star Is Born seems to be a stronger Best Picture contender for the musical slot than Mary Poppins Returns... But never ignore the Oscar potential of a nostalgia feeling, a big couple of songs and the ability of making an audience dream. I won't exclude this one this early.
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