Academy Awards 2019 nominees predictions: Best Actor (2nd round)

• BEST ACTOR

Personally, I think this year's Best Actor contender lineup is amazing (just like Best Actress'). From a living legend to Hollywood superstars, to highly respected acting names and newcomers, Best Actor seems to embrace diversity and some high-quality performances featured in Spring and Summer limited releases like First Reformed (starring Ethan Hawke) and BlacKkKlansman (starring John David Washington) seem to still up in the game - which is wonderful, since most of Spring and Summer small productions tend to fall into oblivion when Fall film festival begins, no matter how good they are.
This way I'm proud to present my predicted nominees shortlist. I must say I would also include Michael B. Jordan for Creed II since he looks ferocious in the movie trailer and he's the hit actor of the year thanks to his scene-stealing turn in Black Panther... But I guess he can surprise and pop-up in the Best Actor race easily: the man is under the AMPAS radar since Fruitvale Station.
Here's my predictions:

1. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

Redford's final performance, the performance that's said to mark his retirement from acting was met with a warm and sweet reception at Fall film festival circuit. While it is not considered a showy role, that kind of role that works as a showcase for an actors range, The Old Man and the Gun seems to raly on its' leading man's undeniable charisma and subtle and sympathetic ways to portray a A-class criminal. Given how big and respected Redford's name is, it seems crazy he has never won that kind of Academy Award for acting that serves as a career recognition... and after an atrocious Oscar snub for his masterclass performance in All Is Lost (2013), I believe the AMPAS has the right moment and the right movie with the right performance to honour the living legend Redford! The Old Man and the Gun is solid enough in order to get an Oscar campaign and it will give Redford a career-crowning golden man if Fox Searchlights campaigns it as its leading man's swan song - c'mon if Sandra Bullock can win for The Blind Side, just give this man an Oscar!

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

The AMPAS sure loves Bradley Cooper since Oscar voters went for him three years in a row - Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle and American Sniper - so, it seems unlikely they will snub for what is considered is best performance yet... In A Star Is Born, Cooper gets a double-task: to direct and to star in another remake of one of the most beloved Hollywood stories. He's said to be fantastic as an alcoholic fading music star who welcomes a breath of fresh air in his personal life and career thanks to a young promsing singer. And while the most "WOW" praise goes to Stefani Germanotta AKA Lady Gaga, Cooper is said to be the soulful presence and the most complex character of the movie. TIFF and Venice went crazy in love for A Star Is Born and it is expected to perform well at the box-office, so I guess Cooper has good chances at a fourth Oscar nomination in the acting field (and I predict the Golden Globes will love it like crazy, which will give A Star Is Born a late big boost).

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man

The third spot of this year's "superstar" realm, Gosling has become his generation's personification of talent+star power and AMPAS loves this kind of high-profile actors. In First Man, he re-teams with Damien Chazelle after the worldwide success of La La Land, which garnered Gosling the second Oscar nomination he was overdue for. Film festival reviews suggest First Man as the biggest (AKA wider) Oscar player, since it seems to be a technical wonder and a showcase for its director and its two biggest stars - Claire Foy and.... Ryan Gosling! He portrays Louis Armstrong during the years leading up to the Apollo 11 mission to the Moon in 1969 and he's said to excel in the part. And while some claim Gosling might be a surprise snub, I can not see that happen at this (early) point of the awards season. An iconic historic figure + one of the best actors working these days + a critical acclaimed movie directed by Chazelle... I don't see the AMPAS ignoring First Man's star.

4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Hawke was born to play his role in Paul Schrader's First Reformed - Reverend Ernst Toller. A movie about loss, faith and morality, First Reformed features Ethan Hawke at the top of his game. It's a tremendous performance and he's the reason the movie works - it's that kind of part that needs an highly charismatic and immersive actor to make it work. I believe critics will recognize his performance, which will give Hawke enough visibility to be recognize by one of the televised big precursor awards - I would say a SAG nod and a Critics' Choice nom. Internet folks and indie movie lovers will make "nominate Ethan Hawke for First Reformed" a cause. Since the Academy has already nominated him four times (2 for acting, 2 for Best Adapted Screenplay), I can see it happen - Oscar voters don't seem to dislike him at all.

5. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

The Academy loves a dinasty and they often recognize family members who excel in the movie business (The Coppola's, Goldie Hawn/Kate Hudson, Jon Voight/Angelina Jolie, Henry Fonda/Jane Fonda, John Huston/Anjelica Huston or Judy Garland/Liza Minnelli)... John David Washington is Denzel Washington's son and... guess what? He holds himself pretty great in Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman and he makes for a charismatic lead. It's a solid performance, strong and charismatic enough to deserve some Oscar love. So, if BlacKkKlansman manages to raise its Oscar buzz to Cannes' Film Festival 2018 levels, I can see young Washington getting nominated easily. Plus, AMPAS might want to avoid a #OscarSoWhite controversy once again and secure a black actor nominated in this category. Right now, I think he's very vulnerable at this point of the race with Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) as a direct competitor for his spot.

6. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book - The star of the 2019 edition of TIFF's big winner (Green Book), Mortensen and Mahershala Ali are co-leads, but it seems campaign managers are pushing Ali to the Best Supporting Actor race, which leaves Mortensen in the Best Leading Actor field. A well-reviewed comedic performance, he's said to be funny and fresh in a movie that's considered the feel-great dramedy of the year. A movie about race issues and an unlikely friendship, I believe the AMPAS will embrace Green Book easily and Mortensen (or Ali) might sneak that 4th or 5th spot of my predictions easily!

7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased - Considered by many as a movie that's an acting gem, Boy Erased is said to be elevated by a Nicole Kidman performance... and a Lucas Hedges'. Portraying a young man forced to go to a conversion camp after confessing his homossexuality, Hedges is said to deliver a moving performance. Critics loved it and he's the movie heart and soul, but it seems there is nothing that special about the movie besides the performances. Yes, it is a showcase, but when you have a spectacular movie, it sells the performance. He's young, very young, but he's an Academy Award nominee already and it seems he has a nice shot at a second nomination (since AMPAS also loves tales about man who hide their homossexuality), but since he's currently on Broadway he might miss some crucial campaign events to boost his Oscar buzz. 

8. Christian Bale, Vice - Vice, previously named Backseat, tells the story of Dick Cheney. It will tell the story of a monster or the story of the man behind the popular figure of Cheney? Well, considering the talent involved in this project, I'm expecting a complex character study, but there's always the risk of falling in "another average biopic" realm... But Bale will be great as always, for sure, and he went through a physical transformation in order to ressemble Cheney - and the AMPAS loves it, right? Oscar voters took some time in order to learn to love Bale, but since his first nod/first win he got nominated 2 more times... 

9. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate - I know he won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor of Venice Film Festival and critics raved his performance and At Eternity's Gate seems amazing BUT "too arthouse" for the Academy's taste. Dafoe has already been nominated 3 times (and last time was for 2017's The Florida Project), but it seems it will be hard for him to win IF he gets nominated. Will the AMPAS nominate Dafoe for the 4th time (and 2nd in a row) and then not give him his long-deserved golden man? I think the Academy will wait for a more Oscar-obvious performance. 

10. LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You - Is the movie "too fresh for the AMPAS"? Stanfield might well the best comedic performance of the year coming from a male actor - he's a commanding, highly charismatic screen presence and the movie is a satyre about being a black man/white man. I would say a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical at best, but if he manages to get some late heat in order to boost his Oscar chances... I would say he would be a welcome surprise.