- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
While Best Actor race and (specially) Best Actress bloodbath seem to be extremely competitive this year, Best Supporting Actor is a softer topic. A category that is often connected to the Best Picture category, 3 out of my 5 predicted nominees are part of my Best Picture top contenders (Green Book, A Star Is Born and Black Panther) while the other 2 are from a critical darling with no substantial Best Picture buzz YET (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and a movie that remains to be seen (Vice).
And while most Oscar predictions folks seem to be predicting Timothée Chalamet as a top Best Supporting Actor contender, I still not buy it, specially after the tepid critical and audience receptions the movie received - Chalamet is said to be great, but still... And since Lucas Hedges has entered the race for another addiction drama (Ben is Back, which is said to be better than Beautiful Boy), then Chalamet got direct competition!
Here are my predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
An actor who works since 1987, but an actor who has never found his signature role in order to receive some recognition for his talent. In 2018's Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Richard E. Grant found a true acting showcase as Jack Hock, Lee Israel's loyal gay friend who becomes a partner in crime. Both hilarious and often moving, the actor has been receiving tons of rave reviews for his performance and while Melissa McCarthy might be the movie's star, Grant proves he's no lesser actor and more than manages to shine as bright as the famous leading lady. The movie is a small production and it might not be a box-office success, but it is a critics' darling and given how open the Best Supporting Actor race is, I believe Grant is the actual frontrunner and his performance might be the strongest when compared to most contenders. Plus, considering how strong the Best Actress race is, McCarthy might miss an Oscar nomination for this movie... this way, I believe AMPAS members will want to assure this movie some Oscar recognition and Grant is Can You Ever Forgive Me?'s "easiest" chance.
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Yes, Ali doesn't have a supporting part in Green Book, he's clearly a co-lead, so... yes, it's a case of category fraud. Green Book won 2019 TIFF's People Choice Award, boosting its Oscar chances for Best Picture (a hit that no one was seeing coming) and other categories such as Best Original Screenplay and Best Actor/Supporting Actor. Mahershala Ali shares the screen with Viggo Mortensen (who's going to be campaigned as the lead), Ali plays a jazz musician and Mortensen plays his driver during a tour - and critics (and TIFF audiences) loved the acting duo. The movie deals with the racism of the American Deep South and racial segregation (Jim Crow laws), bringing these themes to the Oscar race (just like If Beale Street Could Talk and BlacKkKlansman). Mortensen might have the showier role, but it is Ali who's described as "a marvel to watch" and given the Best Picture buzz, Ali's Oscar chances look quite solid. And let's not forget the AMPAS has already showed Ali some love - he won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight (2016)!
3. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
He plays the much older half-brother of a fading music star and he embodies the concept of tough love! It's not a showy role and Elliott doesn't really have that much screen time in order to build a fantastic performance - but he nails every scene with his deep voice and the sadness in his eyes. And that final small monologue? When his character and Ally have a conversation...? Great work! Most reviews focus on Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga (I mean, they are the movie stars), but Elliott is also terrific and no one can deny it! Of course the mad Oscar buzz around the movie and the fact of living a career resurgence don't hurt his chances at all. After delivering the performance of his lifetime in last year's The Hero (which was completely overlooked by award voters!!!), Sam Elliott seems to be confortable in order to get the career-crowning Oscar nomination he deserves!
4. Sam Rockwell, Vice
It's not that usual seeing an acting Oscar winner to get another Oscar nomination the following year, but it has already happened before. After some years being considered a "snubed actor", Rockwell collected awards and accolades last year for his performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (including the Oscar)... this year, he's back to award talk thanks to his portray of former US president, George W. Bush in a biopic about his vice-president! Bush administration wasn't an happy one and Oscar voters might well remember those times as "sad times"... but Rockwell looks amazing in Vice movie trailer that's impossible to ignore the role's award potential given the actor's talent. It can be a really juicy and showy role just like Oscar voters love!
5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
A testosterone-driven performance, Michael B. Jordan does shine in 2018's box-office giant Black Panther - in fact, he's the best thing about the movie. Thanks to a screenplay that gives Jordan's Killmonger some depht and a powerful character's backstory, the actor was able to build a villain that's much more complex than we are used to in superhero movies. It's the tension between Jordan and Chadwick's characters that drives the movie to killer-good cinematic levels. The family drama, the action and the ideas... Black Panther is much more than an ordinary MCU box-office titan: it was also a critics darling and Disney has announced the studio will campaign for the movie this award season. So, Jordan will have a huge studio's campaign behind him! He'll also star Creed II later this year, which might give a boost to his Oscar chances (if the sequel is as good as the first movie)... The young black promising actor of Fruitvale Station and Creed seems to have found a vehicle to stardom and award recognition. "Hey, auntie!"
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman - One of the best actors of his generation, Adam Driver seems to have found a solid awards vehicle for the Oscar race after an Oscar buzzy performance for 2016's Paterson. BlacKkKlansman was met with warm praise at Cannes Film Festival, it did fine at the box-office and it was considered one of the strongest Oscar players a couple of months ago, but after Fall film festival season and Fall releases, the movie seems to be losing traction... but BlacKkKlansman still is considered a major contender for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay categories, so it might get enough support in order to land a Best Supporting Actor nomination (since Michael B. Jordan is a fragile contender given the anti-"superhero movie" AMPAS tastes).
7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased - Oscar voters love a career-comeback and Russell Crowe is said to be back to the top of his game as a father who can't balance the acceptance of his son's homossexuality with his religious beliefs. Most critics considered Crowe the weakest of the movie's leading actors (Lucas Hedges and Nicole Kidman are the other two), but it still is a performance that conveys empathy and the AMPAS members might well be moved by this trio of dramatic performances - and let's not forget Oscar voters have already loved Crowe a lot! Just like Hedges, Crowe also plays a victim... just a different kind of victim.
8. Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back - While he might well be considered a lead in Ben is Back, the fact of "Julia Roberts owns the movie" and that he'll be competing for Best Actor with another Oscar-worthy performance in Boy Erased seems to me campaigning for Hedges for Best Supporting Actor for Ben is Back is an obvious move! Reviews praise him and while most of the movie is focused on Robert's character's struggle to bring her son back to her, Hedges is said to deliver a performance that shows the complexity of his character. He has already seduced the Oscar voters once, maybe he'll do it a second time!
9. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy - Chalamet carries the second half of the whole movie and delivers an acting performance as a drug addict beloved son that's worthy of acclaim, yes... but Beautiful Boy only works as an acting showcase for him, nothing more. Narrative missteps and an execution that seems to "Oscar forced", Beautiful Boy is never fluid, in spite of Chalamet's (and Carell's) efforts. This young man does have a gift for acting, for sure... but will he be able to get an Oscar nomination given the average quality of the movie and the fact he was nominated just last year for the huge hit Call Me By Your Name? Plus, Hedges is said to be terrific in another addiction-family drama that's fresher than Beautiful Boy (Ben is Back) and he also fits the "young and extremely talented" status: a direct competitor.
10. Steve Buscemi, The Death of Stalin - A well-known character actor, Buscemi has already delivered some Oscar nod-worthy performances in Reservoir Dogs (1992), Fargo (1996) and Ghost World (2001), but AMPAS recognition never materialized. Last year, when the comedy The Death of Stalin "arrived Europe", his performance as Russian statesman Nikita Khrushchev earned him a lot of praise and he got some award recognition. With The Death of Stalin being released in US in 2018, Buscemi is now qualified to compete in the Best Supporting Actor race. He delivers the most memorable (and refined) performance of the stunning ensemble cast - some claim Simon Russell Beale is better, but still - and given how open the war for the 4th and 5th places is... I wouldn't be surprised if he manages to get award recognition and nab an Oscar nod.
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