Academy Awards 2019 nominees predictions: Best Actress (2nd ROUND)

• BEST ACTRESS

I would name this year's Best Actress race as the most competitive one I can remember. Best Actress Oscar race AKA Best Actress Bloodbath is fueled by out-of-this-world acting turns: Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Glenn Close (The Wife), Viola Davis (Widows), Julia Roberts (Ben is Back), Carey Mulligan (Wildlife), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns AND A Quiet Place), Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Elsie Fisher (Eight Grade), Natalie Portman (Vox Lux), Kiki Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk), Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite). Enough? It was extremely difficult to pick 10 so I could write my predictions... I still think any of these contender can pop-up during award season or even nab a surprise Oscar nomination given the level of acclaim of their performances combined with the movies' receptions. That said, I started by thinking: who's less vulnerable?
[This post had to be re-published because of some technical problems with the text format]
So, let me present my Best Actress 2019 nominees predictions:

1. Stefani Germanotta AKA Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Critics and TIFF audiences went "gaga" for Lady Gaga's performance as the aspiring singer Ally in the remake of A Star Is Born. The performance is said to be a showy one... it might not be a refined/delicated/full of detail kind of performance a professional actress with some years of acting could deliver, but it's a raw performance that feels authentic while displaying some kind of a inner strenght. In A Star Is Born, Lady Gaga is stripped from all the extravaganza looks and outfits that made her famous - she's fresh and almost unrecognizable and her voice (Ally's voice) feels true to herself. A Golden Globe winning performance almost for sure, which combined with her superstar power, rave reviews and the audience's love make Lady Gaga as the most probable Best Actress 2019 Oscar nominee. Plus, the campaign move of promoting A Star Is Born in the drama field for the Golden Globes is a sign producers want Gaga to be crowned above Close in a big televised award show. The internet already loves her performance and the movie is doing great at the box-office, by appealing to different ages... A Star Is Born! A new Cher?

2. Glenn Close, The Wife

This woman has been asking for an Oscar for decades! After 4 Oscar nominations and Oscar-deserving turns in Fatal Attraction (lost to Cher) and Dangerous Liaisons (lost to Jodie Foster), an overlooked performance in Meeting Venus and a "it almost didn't happen" Academy Award nomination for Albert Nobbs, Close is back to Oscar talk! And some people already talk about her Oscar win...! But it happens with such a strong contenders lineup, the major risk is missing the nom. She's mesmerizing in The Wife and critics agree with me: a portray of a woman who let herself to be just "the wife" in a male-dominant world. It's the kind of tour-de-force performance that often wins Oscars, full of details. It's not an explosive acting turn: it's an inner WWII and you can see it in her eyes. The movie itself will be no big awards player - it's a nice movie, but it's Close who's the big deal here and she's the movie's biggest (and I would say "only") hope for AMPAS recognition! Close becomes Joan and if she manages to get a nomination, she's likely to win! She's the movie.

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Is she a lead? Yes, she is. Is Emma Stone supporting? No! The latest award campaign move for the period comedy The Favourite has just placed Colman in the Best Actress race... Well, Colman could easily go supporting, but it seems the producers really want to have each member of the movie's trio of amazing actresses to get an Oscar nomination: does it mean they prived Olivia Colman of an Oscar win? The Best Supporting Actress field has no clear frontrunner right now, while Colman is set to a direct fight against the two most Oscar buzzy female performances of the year: Gaga for A Star Is Born and Glenn Close for The Wife. And while I'm pretty confident Colman will be able to be part of the final nominees shortlist, the possibility of an Oscar win has changed. Right now, besides the raved performance Colman also benefits from strong past performances (Tyranossaur, Hyde Park On Hudson and The Lobster) that got no major award recognition and she benefits from the movie's Best Picture buzz. After a Volpi Cup for Best Actress win at this year's edition of Venice Film Festival, Colman emerges as one of the frontrunners for the Oscar race and a clear "favourite" for a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical win. Plus, critics awards will help her build momentum! A comedic performance full of drama.

4. Viola Davis, Widows

Viola Davis channels her badass mode in Steve McQueen's Widows and while it might be a kind of performance way too different from her Oscar nominated turns in Doubt, The Help or Fences - critics describe her as "dominant" and "a powerhouse" - it seems the right kind of movie and the right kind of performance for a post-win Oscar nomination to estabilish her as the greatest black actress ever. She's the first black actress to achieve the Triple Crown of Acting (Oscar + Emmy + Tony Award) and one of the only two black actresses to have received more than 2 Academy Award nominations. One of the finest working actresses, for sure, but is she some kind of a black Meryl Streep who's able to convince the Academy to turn every great performance she delivers into an Oscar nod? The performance is said to be amazing, but the movie itself is not the AMPAS cup of tea... But she's Oscar voters' strongest contender for the "Black actress seat", since the Academy seems to want to avoid another #OscarSoWhite controversy... and what a GREAT option an actress like Davis is.

5. Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

She's Julia Roberts! Do you need more? She's Julia Roberts and she's back at the top of her game. TIFF critics considered Roberts' turn in Ben is Back her strongest and most commanding performance since her Oscar-winning performance in Erin Brockovich! It took Julia Roberts 13 years in order to get her fourth Oscar nomination (for August: Osage County) and in spite of being the eternal "America's darling", she's far from the hit-girl years of the 90's. But it seems the movie really belongs to her and it might be too hard to ignore such a strong performance from such a big star. A rich character that allows Roberts to build a complex character and deliver a performance full of detail... Ben is Back got enough critical acclaim during TIFF in order to be seen as an awards vehicle for its leading lady. Not sure how it will perform at the box-office (a small production, but Julia Roberts' name sells tickets), but if it does nice, then she's stronger than I might think.

6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer - Critics raved her performance as Detective Erin Bell, a cop who faces her demons when a leader of a gang re-emerges, in a movie with some narrative troubles due to its script's sophistication according to some critics. Some claim she's what makes the movie work and it has been called the best and most challenging Kidman performance ever! A once-in-a-lifetime kind of performance from an actress who's living another career high point (Little Big Lies TV series success, Lion, The Beguiled, The Killing of a Sacred Deer and now Destroyer and Boy Erased), but the movie is not a conventional Oscar contender and the AMPAS seems to really love Kidman... when she's playing more safe! Remember To Die For, The Others, Birth or The Paperboy - the most fascinating Kidman (yet unconventional) performances, Oscar snubed performances. And since she's said to be also amazing in Boy Erased as a mother who refuses to give up on her son, the AMPAS might prefer to recognize the actress for something more conventional... Or maybe she's so astonishing - a true tour de force kind of performance - in this movie that she's impossible to ignore!

7. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns - Mary Poppins is an iconic movie character and it gave Julie Andrews an Academy Award for Best Actress back in 1964/1965. So, can this beloved character give Emily Blunt her overdue first Oscar nomination AT LEAST? Well, considering the movie trailer, the actress seems to be good enough to fill Andrews' shoes in her own way. Don't get me wrong, I think Julie Andrews' performance as Mary Poppins is perfection and the 1964 movie is Disney's biggest crown jewel... but if there's a living actress able to nail the part, it's Emily Blunt! Funny, bitchy, charismatic and a magnetic presence, Mary Poppins might well give Blunt the Oscar love she deserves. There's a certain "nostalgia feeling" concerning this sequel and people really want it to be good! Now, it seems A Star Is Born will be competing in Drama category at the Golden Globes, which makes Blunt the clear frontrunner in the Best Actress - Comedy or Musical category... and if she wins, it will give her Oscar chances a real boost!

8. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? - The AMPAS often loves when a comedy-type of actress does great in the drama genre and McCarthy got great reviews for her performance as Lee Israel, who tries to get recognition by forging letters from deceased writers. It's a tale of fraud but also a tale of loneliness that seems to provide the actress enough space to emanate something that's nothing like what she has done before. So, thanks to a warm reception in Telluride Film Festival and Toronto International Film Festival, she entered the Oscar race. After an Oscar nomination for her supporting comedic turn in the hit comedy Bridesmaids, it might seem AMPAS members love her... but will they embrace this daring performance from her? The fact Richard E. Grant also got rave reviews can help her: if he gets nominated they'll likely go for the movie's lead as well... or they might think they've already done enough to recognize this movie! This seems to be the kind of performance that needs support from the big precursor awards like the Globes and the SAG - which is likely to happen! 

9.  Amandla Stenberg, The Hate U Give - I expect to see those "breakthrough performance" and "best young actor/actress" prizes being given to Amandla Stenberg, Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace) and Elsie Fisher (Eight Grade), but this young black actress seems to be a couple of steps ahead of her competitors - she has the showiest role! Her performance as a young traumatized young woman who dares to "scream the truth" has earned Stenberg huge rave reviews, with some critics considering her acting turn to be Oscar-worthy - which means a lot, given how competitive this year's Best Actress race is. After a moving scene-stealing performance as Rue in 2012's Hunger Games, Stenberg seems to have matured and become a knock-out presence on-screen. Her performance is one to never forget! Maybe she enters the awards circuit, since The Hate U Give is turning into a box-office hit and it can be 20th Century Fox's best chance at some Oscar recognition this season! I believe the studio will campaign!

10. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife - Remember when we all thought she would become some kind of Kate Winslet after that brilliant breakthrough performance in An Education? Well, not that successful maybe, but I consider Mulligan as an extremely talented actress. The Great Gatsby aside (she's was miscast for me), Mulligan's work has been quite exceptional since her first Oscar nom: Never Let Me Go (2010), Drive (2011), Shame (2011), Suffragette (2015), Far from the Madding Crowd (2015), Mudbound (2017) and a Tony Award-nominated turn in Skylight's Broadway revival. So, it seems like she's overdue for a second Oscar nod, don't you think? In fact, Mulligan has been under consideration for Wildlife since Sundance Film Festival. Her character, a wife with a marriage on the rocks who's both a victim and a villain, is said to be the best performance of her career and something like we've never seen from her before. But the movie seems to be too small and it might have some trouble playing with some giant Oscar contenders... 

SAD ABOUT: Andie MacDowell for Love After Love - a great performance that never materialized into real Oscar buzz, early award talk or forum discussion. It would be named a career-defining performance for this actress. She excels in this one, winning the audiences by their hearts. It feels like a real portrayal of a woman.