Unlike the Golden Globes (and I'm WRITING my 2nd ROUND of Best Director predictions so I'm the least influenced as possible by the Globes, but I know I will only be able to publish it later), the AMPAS always goes less mainstream, specially when it comes to Best Director category. Last year's Best Director Oscar nominees were Gerwig (Lady Bird), Peele (Get Out), P.T.Anderson (Phantom Thread), Nolan (Dunkirk) and Del Toro (The Shape of Water) - and only the last two got a Golden Globe nod. The AMPAS prefers the auteurs! And I believe this year won't be that different from 2017.
Plus, Best Director has become a category to celebrate Hollywood diversity and judging by my predictions I see 1) a Mexican, 2) an American actor turned director, 3) and 4) African American directors and 5) a Chinese female director. Diverse, right?
Just have a look:
1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
If Gravity was a cinematic triumph at an epic scale (completely out of this world), then we can call Cuarón's Roma a cinematic triumph at an intimate scale. After the big win at this year's edition of Venice Film Festival (the prestigious Golden Lion), Roma went to get recognized by major critics organizations such as New York Film Critics Association or the National Board of Review. Everyone who saw Roma loves it. And since Cuarón has already had a love affair with the AMPAS, a Best Director nod for his most unique film is likely to happen. But will the Netflix stamp hurt his Oscar chances?
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Just like last year's Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Bradley Cooper made a successful transition from actor to director with A Star Is Born. A critical and box-office hit and an internet sensation, the 2018's remake of the famous drama-musical is considered the early favorite for the upcoming Oscars. An extremely confident directorial debut that works as a showcase for his fresh directing craft. Some might argue he's competing against John Krasinski (A Quiet Place, another huge hit) for a actor-turned-director spot in the nominees shortlist, but it seems clear to me Cooper is miles ahead of Krasinski when it comes to Oscar chances.
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
A well-known Hollywood name, Spike Lee has already received some recognition from the AMPAS, but never in the directing field. After BlacKkKlansman's mad Cannes Oscar buzz the movie went to a silent stage of award buzz, but it seems the movie's Oscar chances are stronger than ever these days. A tale about hate and white supremancy, BlacKkKlansman is both entertaining and "important" and it deals with its serious subject in a very sensitive, yet funny, way. One of the most complete movies in recent years, BlacKkKlansman is a perfectly balanced movie and relies on a strong screenplay, charismatic cast and an assured direction. And most people think Lee is overdue for his first Best Director nod, so, I see it happening.
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
After Medicine for Melancholy (2008) and Moonlight (2016), most people were skeptical about Barry Jenkins being able to deliver the third cinematic marvel in a row (specially after the exquisite Best Picture-winning Moonlight) - but it seems he did it again. After a warm reception at this year's edition of Toronto International Film Festival, If Beale Street Could Talk managed to be nominated in Best Film category by a big couple of critics associations so far, being part of a bunch of TOP 10 lists and even get a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture - Drama... and Barry Jenkins is also on the same train concerning awards attentions. A true storyteller, Jenkins assumes himself as a visual and aural director without sacrificing the narrative or a movie's heart. A beloved movie from one of the most promising new directors in recent years... I believe he fits the AMPAS tastes.
5. Chloé Zhao, The Rider
Predicting Chloé Zhao (The Rider) for Best Director might sound more of wishful thinking than a rational decision, but The Rider is doing fine with indie awards and it managed to be mentioned in National Board of Review TOP 10 Independent Films of the Year, after winning this year's Gotham Award for Best Film and being nominated for 4 Independent Spirit Awards last year (including Best Feature and Best Director). Zhao is now a well-respected Hollywood name and she even got the New Generation Award from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. The Rider is pure cinematic poetry and I can see a very specific group of AMPAS members united for Zhao's cause.
6. Peter Farrely, Green Book - The movie is a feel-good critical darling and audiences love the movie. It took the People's Choice Award of Toronto International Film Festival and it was named the Best Film of the year by the National Board of Review, along with 5 Golden Globe nods and 7 nominations for the Critics' Choice Award, including Best Director. But Farrelly has a big bunch of awful comedy-directed movies... Not good for his reputation!
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite - After Dogtooth, Alps, The Losbter and The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Lanthimos presented something easier to watch and easier to like without losing his personal directing brilliance. A director who is always an auteur, Lanthimos' Oscar chances for Best Director are nice and the movie is a major award player...! I can see him taking the 5th spot of the nominees shortlist easily.
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man - The young director of Whiplash and La La Land is back to awards conversation, but it seems people are not that enthusiastic about First Man. Yes, it is a damn good movie, beautifully executed, but few people truly "LOVE" the movie (I'm one of those who does). Maybe the AMPAS feels skeptical about giving him a second Best Director nom, which would give him the "Best Director of His Generation" title this early, but no one can deny the exquisite directing craft behind First Man.
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther - The helmer of one of the biggest box-office successes and cultural phenomenons of the year, Ryan Coogler has a past critical acclaimed indie filmography that only elevates his chances at a Best Director nomination. Black Panther is well-made and has something that elevates the movie above the superhero-movie standard. But precursor awards and Oscar buzz seem more interested in the movie itself than its director.
10. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place - Paramount is focused in promoting A Quiet Place in the Oscar race. A brilliant movie and an unexpected original hit, John Krasinski's directorial vehicle is good enough to earn him Best Director recognition, but he'll be outshined by another actor-turned-director - Bradley Cooper, for the fresher and more spetacular A Star Is Born. No matter what, he's a promising director and... well... who knows? Sometimes Oscar voters love to surprise in this category.
Comments