BEST PICTURE
Can win: The Favourite or Green Book
Should win: BlacKkKlansman
Alfonso Cuarón's masterpiece, Roma, has been sweeping every big award that exists after taking home BAFTA Award for Best Film, Golden Globe for Best Foreign Motion Picture or the Critics' Choice Award for Best Film after collecting a big ton of critics prizes. It's almost TOO CLEAR. But it missed the usual key SAG Award nod for Best Ensemble or the Academy Award nod for Best Editing - an usual requirement in order to take home the top prize. Plus, it would become the first foreign film to win Best Picture!!! Too edgy for the AMPAS? That's why I still believe The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman might steal Best Picture: The Favourite missed a SAG nod for Best Ensemble, but got 3 SAG nods for its ladies, while BlacKkKlansman is the best from all the nominees and it has got virtually every nod it needs to be the perfect Best Picture winner, but didn't win a major award during the season besides the BAFTA for Best Adapted Screenplay. And let's not underestimate Green Book: this movie failed Best Director Oscar nod, but it won PGA Award for Best Theatrical Feature and the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical! So, two movies about women (Roma and The Favourite) and two movies about racial issues (BlacKkKlansman and Green Book)... all them are "important movies".
- Black Panther
- BlackkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star is Born
- Vice
BEST DIRECTOR
Can win: No chance, it's Cuarón's to lose
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
- Pavel Pawlikowski, Cold War
- Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Adam McKay, Vice
BEST ACTOR
Can win: Christian Bale, Vice
Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Precursor awards season favor Rami Malek and Christian Bale, but I believe Bradley Cooper still has a chance since A Star Is Born was a hit, people loved the movie and the performances and he's an AMPAS darling - and they denied him a Best Director nom, so maybe they'll award him with the Oscar for Best Actor in return (apologies).
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
BEST ACTRESS
Can win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Should win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Yes, I believe in a Best Actress "upset". All eyes are on Close, but I believe no one truly loved her performance more than Colman's. Plus, The Favourite has Best Picture heat, so performance & movie itself are on Olivia Colman's side. It's the same award narrative that happened back in 2007: Julie Christie won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama, the Critics' Choice Award for Best Actress and the SAG Award for Best Leading Actress (just llike Close) while Marion Cotillard took home the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, the BAFTA for Best Actress in a Leading Role (just like Olivia Colman) and... the Oscar!
- Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Can win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman
- Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
- Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Can win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Should win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actress is anyone's game: King delivers the best performance and she reigned supreme during awards season (won Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Award), but missed BAFTA and SAG Awards; Rachel Weisz won the BAFTA, but no other major award but a couple of critics prizes and the BIFA; Emma Stone won nothing besides one or two critics prizes, but she's the biggest star of the nominees shortlist; Amy Adams was nominated for everything but won nothing, she's overdue for an Oscar win, but most people don't like this particular performance; and Marina de Tavira is a shocker nominee, but if they fall hard for Roma...! No perfect contenders here, so I believe it will go to King by a hair!
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Marina De Tavira, Roma
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favouirte
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Can win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Should win: BlackkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott and Spike Lee
The WGA went for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but I believe BlacKkKlansman still is the favorite and the strongest contender for a win. Still, screenplay categories have some shocking winners often... but I don't believe the AMPAS will deny Spike Lee his first Oscar win (for one of his best works ever).
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel and Ethan Coen
- BlackkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott and Spike Lee
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
- If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
- A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Can win: The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Should win: First Reformed, Paul Schrader
I was expecting the WGA to clear my mind but... they went for Eight Grade - a non-Oscar nominee. So, I believe Green Book will win since it got the Golden Globes for Best Comedy/Musical AND Best Screenplay and it was the PGA champion. Screenplay categories are used to honour movies the AMPAS loves without giving it Best Picture and this one is about a topic they love: racial issues. But The Favourite (another Best Picture nominee) is also a strong contender: that sharp dialogue got the BAFTA Award for Best Original Screenplay and people love the "female power" subject.
- The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
- First Reformed, Paul Schrader
- Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
- Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
- Vice, Adam McKay
BEST FOREIGN PICTURE
Can win: It's Roma, end of setence
Should win: Shoplifters
- Capernaum, LEBANON
- Cold War, POLAND
- Never Look Away, GERMANY
- Roma, MEXICO
- Shoplifters, JAPAN
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Can win: Incredibles 2
Should win: Isle of Dogs
The thing is: Into the Spider-Verse is the clear frontrunner, but the AMPAS never liked MCU movies until this year. So, I believe both Incredibles 2 (a huge box-office hit from the giant Pixar) or the artsy Isle of Dogs (from Wes Anderson, an auteur the AMPAS has learned how to love him) still have a nice shot.
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks the Internet
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
BEST EDITING
Can win: Vice, Hank Corwin
Should win: BlackkKlansman, Bary Alexander Brown
Green Book is the weakest contender here. I can any other of the nominees winning in this category, since both Roma and A Star Is Born (early favorites for Best Editing) missed a nod. BlacKkKlansman features impressive editing work and the most showy of the nominated works (and the AMPAS likes "showy"). Both Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite won at the Eddies and both are strong enough for a win. Vice's editing is also very good (the second best thing in the movie next to Bale) and it has won some Best Editing prizes from critics associations, so...
- BlackkKlansman, Bary Alexander Brown
- Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
- The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
- Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
- Vice, Hank Corwin
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Can win: It's Roma, for God's sake
Should win: Cold War, Lukasz Zal
- Cold War, Lukasz Zal
- The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
- Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
- Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
- A Star is Born, Matthew Libatique
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Can win: Black Panther, Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart
Should win: Roma, Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez
- Black Panther, Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart
- The Favourite, Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
- First Man, Nathan Crowly and Kathy Lucas
- Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre and Gordon Sim
- Roma, Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
Can win: The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Should win: Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The AMPAS loves period pieces and The Favourite's costume design work is delicious to look at, but Black Panther features the most impressive outfits in movies last year. Plus, Ruth E. Carter has never won before and... she's a black woman, which is a big deal for the AMPAS - about representation issues.
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
- Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
- The Favourite, Sandy Powell
- Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
- Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Can win: Border, Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer
Should win: Border, Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer
- Border, Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer
- Mary Queen of Scots, Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
- Vice, Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Avengers: Infinity War, Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
Can win: First Man, Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
Should win: Avengers: Infinity War, Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
The only superhero movies that won Best Visual Effects were Superman (1978, a Special Achievement Award) and Spider-Man 2 (2004)... So odds are against Infinity War, but it is the most successful movie of last year in terms of box-office and it was critically acclaimed... Maybe the AMPAS will go for the Avengers crew! No matter what, First Man is a strong contender for a win.
- Avengers: Infinity War, Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
- Christopher Robin, Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
- First Man, Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
- Ready Player One, Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and DAvid Shirk
- Solo: A Star Wars Story, Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Can win: Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Since Justin Hurwitz missed a nomination for his AMAZING work for First Man...
- Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
- BlackkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
- If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
- Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
- Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Can win: "Shallow", Lady Gaga Can Act
Should win: "Shallow", Grammy's heat
- "All the Stars", Black Panther
- "I’ll Fight", RBG
- "The Place Where Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns
- "Shallow", A Star is Born
- "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BEST SOUND EDITING
Can win: Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst and Nia Hartstone
Should win: First Man, Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
First Man features some of the best sound work in recent years and it's an obvious choice for Sound Editing but... what if they want to give Bohemian Rhapsody something more than "just" Best Actor?
- Black Panther, Benjamin A Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
- Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst and Nia Hartstone
- First Man, Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
- A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahi
- Roma, Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay
BEST SOUND MIXING
Can win: Bohemian Rhapsody, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
Should win: First Man, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
First Man is the best, the Academy loved Bohemian Rhapsody, but the internet is mad for a A Star Is Born missing Best Director and Best Editing... I believe they will use this one as a crowd pleaser - having A Star Is Born taking 2 Oscars home is different from taking "just 1" and its sound work is great and polished.
- Black Panther, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
- Bohemian Rhapsody, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
- First Man, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
- Roma, Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia
- A Star Is Born, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Can win: Free Solo
Should win: Minding the Gap
Free Solo is breathtaking, but RBG is just inspiring!
- Free Solo
- Hale County This Morning, This Evening
- Minding the Gap
- Of Fathers and Sons
- RBG
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Can win: End Game
Should win: Period End of Sentence
- Black Sheep
- End Game
- Lifeboat
- A Night at the Garden
- Period. End of Sentence.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Can win: It's Bao to lose
Should win: Bao
It's adorable and it's Pixar!
- Animal Behaviour
- Bao
- Late Afternoon
- One Small Step
- Weekends
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Can win: Skin
Should win: Both Skin and Marguerite are great
- Detainment
- Fauve
- Marguerite
- Mother
- Skin
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