Scott Feinberg has reported which category the selected movie are placed for the HFPA consideration in the hope of some Golden Globe glory. As I suspected (and most people thought otherwise), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is going Comedy or Musical, but The Two Popes is going Drama and so is going Bombshell, which I considered they were comedies.
Here's Feinberg's full list:
DRAMA: 1917 (Universal), Ad Astra (Fox), The Banker (Apple), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony), Bombshell (Lionsgate), Clemency (Neon), Dark Waters (Focus Features), Downton Abbey (Focus), Ford v Ferrari (Fox), The Good Liar (Warner Bros.), Harriet (Focus), A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight), Honey Boy (Amazon), The Irishman (Netflix), Joker (Warner Bros.), Judy (Roadside), Just Mercy (Warner Bros.), The King (Netflix), The Lighthouse (A24), Little Women (Sony), Marriage Story (Netflix), Queen & Slim (Universal), The Report (Amazon), Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.), The Two Popes (Netflix), Us (Universal), Waves (A24)
COMEDY OR MUSICAL: Booksmart (Annapurna), Cats (Universal), Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix), Good Boys (Universal), Hustlers (STX), Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight), Knives Out (Lionsgate), Late Night (Amazon), The Laundromat (Netflix), Long Shot (Lionsgate), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony), The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside), Rocketman (Paramount), Uncut Gems (A24), What Men Want (Paramount), Where’d You Go Bernadette? (Annapurna), Yesterday (Universal)
Personally, I think the Comedy or Musical category is specially rich this year, which is great because it means it will be unlikely to have another The Tourist getting nominated all around.
Now, it's time to think how the HFPA thinks in order to predict the Golden Globes:
- They love big stars;
- They tend to go for "young and beautiful" profile;
- They always nominate a musical for Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, no matter how mixed the reaction are... and its leading man/lady also get an acting nomination;
- The #MeToo movement gained a lot of visibility at the Globes, so expect them to go for movie about women;
- They are extremely influenced by a movie's box-office results;
- They always try to balance commercial successful hits with a couple of well-reviewed auteur movies;
- They will try to push a movie as the Oscar frontrunner and they will nominate it all over the place so it can emerge as a major favorite (à la La La Land).
Now just have a look at my predictions:
The HFPA had a crucial role in the visibility of #MeToo campaign and they wouldn't let escape a movie about a sexual harassment scandal led by 3 of the biggest actresses in Hollywood today, so I'm expecting Bombshell to appear in the Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees shortlist! They are likely to be seduced by the Netflix magnetism, which brings Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story and Martin Scorsese's The Irishman to the list - two of the most well-reviewed dramas of the year helmed by two respected directors - which are full of Oscar buzz and both feature great Hollywood names the HFPA will want to see in their party. Considering its box-office success and being one of the most talked movies of the year, Joker is likely to get a nomination here too. I don't believe they will give the trophy to Joker like they did last year with Bohemian Rhapsody (it would damage their credibility and turned the Globes into a too easy to predict game), but they will nominate it. Finally, Ford v. Ferrari might follow Rush (2013)'s route and get nominated here: the older members love a boys movie about races with great sound effects. Another movie I could see popping up here is 1917, which promises to be a spectacle of a movie! And there's also Little Women, a movie about the lives of strong willed sisters and they struggle to make their own way... The Two Popes has also proved to be an audiences favorite and could get a nom here, but I believe Netflix seems more focused in Marriage Story and The Irishman for Best Picture.
The movie I believe HFPA will push hard in order to elevate it to "the frontrunner" status is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, so they won't pass nominating Tarantino's latest here - it's a movie that glorifies Hollywood and the star status, something that suits the Golden Globes perfectly. Since the Globes also have a strong anti-Trump nature and Jojo Rabbit is an anti-hate satyre that's making a lot of movie in its limited release (and it won the TIFF's top prize), you can also expect Jojo Rabbit to be nominated here - plus, I'm sure they want Waititi, Davis, Rockwell, Wilson, Allen, Johansson and McKenzie to join the party! Rocketman is said to not being that well-received by the HFPA members when compared to its screening for the AMPAS, but it is one of "most musical" movies of the year and it is a way to recognize Dexter Fletcher's work alone when they gave a win last year for Bohemian Rhapsody (a movie Bryan Singer started and then he was removed because of sexual assault allegations and then Fletcher finished it). Cats is the true musical of the year and in spite of looking bad (for me), it will get nominated here - end of the story. For the last spot, I can see a lot of movies being picked for multiple reasons, but I will go for The Peanut Butter Falcon: it is a feel-good movie that got a lot of critical acclaim; it features Shia LaBeouf and Dakota Johnson, who have been campaigning for the movie; and it stars a Down Syndrome actor, Zack Gottsagen, and there's a lot of talking about employing actors with disabilities! But I can see Blinded by the Light, Knives Out or Netflix's Dolemite Is My Name taking that 5th spot!
With 6 Golden Globe nominations under her belt (and 3 wins), we can Renee Zellweger was one of the HFPA's favorites back in the days of her prime and she has a great career comeback this year thanks to her performance as Judy Garland in her last days in Judy - critics loved, audiences were impressed and she's a favorite for an Oscar win, so a nomination here seems undeniable. Scarlett Johansson was also a HFPA darling since she got 4 Golden Globe nominations from 2003 to 2005 and I believe she was close to get her 5th for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008), so a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama just sounds natural to happen for the buzzy Marriage Story - not only she got the best reviews of her career, but she's also said to deliver one of the best female performances of the year, being one of the favorite for an Oscar (plus, she's one of the biggest female stars in Hollywood!). Theron plays the TV star Megyn Kelly in Bombshell and not only she nabs her looks (thanks to makeup and hair work) but she also nabs her voice - it's a transformative performance and Theron has been flirting with the Globes here and there for less serious work, so I take a GG nom for her guaranteed for Bombshell. Young, beautiful and one of the most promising actresses, Ronan's performance as stubborn and independent "Jo" March in Little Women got strong reactions and the HFPA has already showed her some love with 3 nominations and 1 win for Lady Bird - and she's a star on the rise, which they love! The fifth spot is not as clear as I wish it was, but I put my money on Lupita Nyong'o since she's memorable in Jordan Peele's Us - they denied her a Golden Globe win for her Oscar winning performance in 12 Years a Slave and she has rised her profile as one of the best working black actresses and she has starred in several bankable productions like Black Panther or the Star Wars saga. I know it is a horror film and it was an early release, but people keep reminding her work in that one and Nyong'o is a star these days. Another options include the black veteran Alfre Woodard in her acclaimed performance in Clemency - but is it too indie for the Globes? She's very respected in the industry and she needs a push to meet her Oscar dreams. Jodie Turner-Smith promises a breakthrough performance in Queen & Slim, but few have already seen it. And Helen Mirren, a Golden Globes regular, seems to have a juicy role in The Good Liar, but competition is fierce this year and they can nominate her for her TV work in Catherine The Great instead.
Not a lot of "prestige" works in this category, but it was one of the most enjoyable categories to predict. With Bombshell going Drama, Awkwafina's chances for The Farewell are on the rise - it's a comedic performance, but it is serious dramatic work and she's becoming a stronger contender for a Best Actress Oscar nomination (plus, her previous acclaimed scene-stealing work in Crazy Rich Asians won't hurt for sure). One of the most acclaimed actresses back in the 90's, Emma Thompson is back with a golden comedic performance as a steely TV host going down in Late Night - not only she delivers an impressive work, but the movie also deals with sexism in the workplace. She's extremely funny and she's a promising actress, Beanie Feldstein has already showed some chops in 2017's Lady Bird, but this year she has an acting vehicle of her own in Booksmart - it's a smart comedy and she's delicious and funny to watch. Of course she faces some internal competition of her co-lead Kaitlyn Dever, but if only one of the Booksmart gets a Golden Globe nod, my money is on Feldstein. I was tempted to include Hustlers in my Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical predictions, but then I realised the movie's appeal lives on its stars inspired performances, so I'm predicting Constance Wu to get nominated here - Jennifer Lopez might be the standout performance, but Wu is the real emotional center of the movie and she shows something different and more dramatic (and equally as good as) than what she displayed in last year's Crazy Rich Asians. I'm not saying she's deserving of a Golden Globe nomination, but since it isn't wishful thinking, I believe Francesca Hayward, the newbie star of Cats, will get in. She's the center of the antecipated musical and while I don't have a nice feeling about the movie, the HFPA will bite just because it is a musical and they love them. Other actresses in contention for a nomination in this category are Charlize Theron for Long Shot (she's funny in a surprisingly refreshing rom-com), Kaitlyn Dever for Booksmart (the other leading lady of Booksmart who's very good but not as good as Feldstein) and Dakota Johnson for The Peanut Butter Falcon (she has the least interesting part in the movie, but she's charming and Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical isn't as competitive as Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor).
This category is a bloodbath. I had under consideration Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari), Matt Damon (Ford v. Ferrari), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes), Robert DeNiro (The Irishman), Antonio Banderas (Dolor y gloria), Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy), Jamie Bell (Skin), Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell), Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim), Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) and Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)... I won't comment! My clear nominees were Joaquin Phoenix for Joker (an iconic and mesmerizing showy performance in a box-office hit) and Adam Driver for Marriage Story (an acting showcase in one of the most acclaimed movies of the year and he's a movie star on the rise). Then, I had 3 spot for a hand full of contenders deserving of some recognition, but I had to be rational. The industry has already learned how to love Christian Bale - this year, it seems he delivers another showy performance in a movie that seems made for the awards taste and considering he has been nominated 4 times for the Golden Globes since 2010 (winning twice), I can see the HFPA going for him a 5th time for Ford v. Ferrari! The last two spots... The Two Popes is an audiences favorite and Jonathan Pryce plays an extremely likeable character - Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio AKA future Pope Francis - and there's a lot of people rooting for him in the awards season, so I can see the HFPA going to please the audiences (and the internet) and nominate him. Another nomination for a Netflix man seems excessive, but I can't see the Golden Globes skipping an opportunity to nominate such an iconic name such as Robert DeNiro in just an acclaimed movie like Scorsese's The Irishman. DeNiro might not get the "best in show" reviews, but he has a name and he has a reputation and the Globes respect that! But I wouldn't be surprised if Matt Damon gets a surprise GG nom for Ford v. Ferrari instead of DeNiro, joining his co-star Bale. Other contenders you better still have under consideration are Antonio Banderas (Dolor y gloria), who's excellent in Almodovar's latest and the movie is likely to be nominated for Best Foreign Language Motion Picture, and I would say... Michael B. Jordan for Just Mercy, who got strong reviews during TIFF and he would make a great diversity nominee in this field (plus, he's growing as a movie star after Fruitvale Station, Creed movies and Black Panther).
Since I'm expecting a Once Upon a Time in Hollywood v. Jojo Rabbit war to take home the Golden Globe of Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, then I'm going to predict Roman Griffin Davis to get nominated in this field. I know he's a child actor, but he got rave reviews and some critics called his performance as one of the greatest performances from a child actor ever (and it seems he carries the whole movie). The same thinking applies to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, so expect Leonardo DiCaprio to get nominated here to for his praised performance as an actor in crisis - I know DiCaprio is old news, but he has an impressive 11 Golden Globes nominations record, with 3 wins, so he's a HFPA's darling since 1993. Rocketman will get a Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical before it gets a Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, since it is Taron Egerton who carries the whole movie and delivers one of the year's very best performances as Elton John... Golden Globe bonus: he acts AND he sings! I see him as a natural Golden Globe nominee, which will revive his Oscar dreams for sure. Netflix has only one contender here after placing The Two Popes in Drama field: Eddie Murphy in a back to form performance in Dolemite Is My Name (it's not a mesmerizing acting turn, but he's so enjoyable and funny to watch, making for a perfect Golden Globe material). For the 5th spot I was THIS CLOSE of picking Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems (critics love him, which is something rare for Sandler, but it seems he even excels his work in Punch Drunk Love or The Meyerowitz Stories), but I went for Himesh Patel for Yesterday, ultimately. Yesterday marked his film debut and he makes for a charming leading man, effortlessly funny and the man can carry a tune - plus, his character is extremely likeable and the movie was a box-office hit! To keep under consideration, Shia LaBeouf as the male lead in The Peanut Butter Falcon (which I'm predicting to nab a Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical nomination) and I would say Daniel Craig for Knives Out, as an hilarious muder mystery detective!
Best Supporting Actress category is full of young and beautiful contenders this year and I bet the HFPA won't resist to them. They have already showed some love for Laura Dern a couple of years ago (she won for her work in Big Little Lies TV series and she was nominated the following year for The Tale TV movie) and she's on a roll for her praised performance in Marriage Story, being considered the early Best Supporting Actress frontrunner - my bet is that the Globes will go with the flow and she will get nominated here. In Hustlers the biggest magnet is not its leading lady, but the supporting turn of Jennifer Lopez and while I don't believe the AMPAS will bite her work here, I do think it is the kind of role and the kind of showy performance the HFPA loves and they won't skip an opportunity to nominate a celebrity like JLo. Scarlett Johansson is already likely to get a Golden Globe nomination for Marriage Story, but she's also in the awards talking for her performance in Jojo Rabbit - here, she's said to be warm and luminous, playing an extremely likeable single mother - and I believe she'll get in for Best Supporting Actress too given the success of the movie and how much audiences are loving Jojo Rabbit. As for Margot Robbie... I believe she might suffer from vote spliting! She has 2 award buzzy performances in 2 award buzzy movies: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Bombshell. I bet she will get in for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, not because her performance is superior than her work in Bombshell (because, according to early reactions, she's better in Bombshell and she really has nothing to do as Sharon Tate in OUATIHollywood), but because I'm predicting the HFPA to give a big push to Tarantino's latest! Still, there's always the possibility she misses a nomination here because of vote spliting. After delivering strong work this year in Fighting With My Family and Midsonmar, Florence Pugh's big awards vehicle seems to come in Greta Gerwig's Little Women - early reviews call her "astonishing" and name her the movie's MVP, so a Golden Globe nomination for a young hottie at this early point of her career just makes sense (plus, she will be part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so it just feels like the right time to "honor her and say you saw she was going great before she goes big"). Still, Shuzhen Zhao got the MVP reviews for her performance as Nai Nai in The Farewell and despite of being old and unknown, I can see her getting a kind of "Jackie Weaver for Animal Kingdom" Golden Globe nom here. Kathy Bates might have a comeback with the juicy role of a suffering mother in Richard Jewell, but the late release doesn't help and Globes don't go mad for Clint Eastwood like the Oscars do. And could Annette Bening (The Report) or Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) get a nom here? The buzz around them seems faded but they are big names and the HFPA might want to revive their award chances!
I would say Brad Pitt is not only poised to be nominated for a Golden Globe of Best Supporting Actor for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but he's also poised to win it - it's the superstar kind of performance, one that relies on real charisma and good looks and it fits the HFPA tastes perfectly. I also expect Al Pacino to get a nom here for playing Jimmy Hoffa in The Irishman - he was singled out in several reviews and he's a titanic name in the industry, something the Globes always pay attention to! And the same could be said about Tom Hanks and his turn in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: he plays the iconic Mr. Rogers and he got rave reviews for it, plus (unlike the Academy Awards) the Globes haven't snubed any of his major performances since Cast Away (Charlie Wilson's War, Captain Phillips and The Post, all earned Hanks a Golden Globe nomination). As for Sterling K. Brown, Waves is a small independent production and it might not be competing in the "big fields" of Best Picture against some of the season's giants, but the acting performances are solid and K. Brown got plenty of praise... He has already got some recognition from the HFPA for his TV work in This Is Us and American Crime Story: it might just translate to film! The fifth spot is a wildcard... I'm predicting Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes, simply because he's Sir Anthony Hopkins and he delivers his most impressive performance in years in a movie that's a film festival's audiences favorite - it is known he won't campaign, which might not work for Oscar, but his name alone can generate a Golden Globe nomination. Some other names that might show up here: Kelvin Harrison Jr. for Waves (the HFPA likes "younger", just like Aaron Taylor Johnson v. Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals and this young actor is said to be as brilliant as K. Brown in Waves); Joe Pesci for The Irishman (another living legend who might join Pacino easily); and Zack Gottsagen for The Peanut Butter Falcon (an actor who suffers from Down Syndrom but he does delivers an effective and winning performance and I expect the movie to get some love here somewhere). NOTE TO SELF: I think Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) might not get nominated because of the category placement/fraud!
First of all, I must confess I felt bad about leaving both Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) out of the 5 nominees predicted shortlist, but we are talking about the Globes and not about the Oscars, so things are different in this game. First, Tarantino is almost locked for a Best Director nomination here - just like I said, I believe the HFPA will be all eyes for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. As for The Irishman and Martin Scorsese, it is the director's most ambitious project in years and I expect the Globes to recognize that with a Best Director nod. Then the less obvious choices... Taika Waititi is really campaigning for Jojo Rabbit and he's amusing to watch in interviews and a joy to follow on social media: more than a fresh directing vision, Waititi is an extremely charismatic figure and the HFPA loves to invite a cool guy for the party! Plus, Jojo Rabbit won the People's Choice at TIFF and it is one of the major contenders in the Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical field. Sam Mendes has some kind of comeback narrative: now he's free from the Bond franchise, he's back to ambitious/daring filmmaking with a war epic! And while I'm not predicting 1917 to show in Best Motion Picture - Drama, I believe they won't deny Mendes a Golden Globe nod if he proves to be at the top of his directing craft (like he seems to be). The HFPA has no problem in recognizing the movie and the director separately, so I'm predicting Mendes! As for Greta Gerwig getting a nomination here... well, I'm not 100% secure but 2019 is a year with plenty of great movies directed by female directors and it would not look good if the HFPA ended snubing all those works and since they "owe" Gerwig a Best Director nomination for Lady Bird, I see the Foreign Press paying their due this year - and Little Women is a tale of strong willed sisters and the first reactions have been quite positive. On the other hand, I can see Gerwig's partner, Noah Baumbach getting in for Marriage Story... or Bong Joon-ho for Parasite! Both Mendes and Gerwig are vulnerable and I can see both being left out, but the HFPA tends to go more mainstream and "obvious" than critics associations or the Oscars, so... It seems to be a great year for Best Director race: a lot of great contenders.
Unlike his chances for Best Director, I believe Noah Baumbach is a lock for Best Screenplay - a lot of critics raved Marriage Story suggesting it might be one of the very best screenplays of the year and praising how rich and real the characters are. And the possibility of not showing in Best Director almost locks a Best Screenplay nomination for one of the best movies of the year. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood shows up once again, this time here in Best Screenplay - a love letter to movies, to Hollywood and truly sharp and funny dialogue with a sudden plot twist in the end: a Best Screenplay nod is on its way! And why not have Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) nominated for Best Screenplay for making fun of some Nazis while telling a tale of a young boy divided between what they told him to think and what he really feels and thinks - and anti-hate = anti-Trump. One of the aspects that got major praise from those who saw Little Women first was the narrative liberties Gerwig used to tell Little Women's story... So, a beloved novel translated beautifully for a script? Sounds deserving of a Golden Globe nomination, specially considering people are already talking about Little Women's Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar chances. Finally, Bombshell, based on some employees' stories about the Fox News Roger Ailes sexual harassment scandal - honouring someone who heard those people and brought their testimony to the big screen is honouring the courage to break free from opression, so it is a natural and strong contender for Best Screenplay. Left out, but could pop up, there are The Farewell (by Lulu Wang), Parasite (by Bong & Han), The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten) and The Irishman (by Steve Zaillian) - all major contenders.
Parasite has the awards buzz. The Farewell should be competing for Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical, but it will be competing here, so count on a nod for this one. Pedro Almodóvar's Dolor y gloria is a hit and a critical darling and Spain's Oscar submission, so it has all the ingredients to show up at the Globes. Senegal's Atlantics got a major key factor to get a Golden Globe nomination: Netflix machine! And between Les Misérables or Portrait of a Lady on Fire, I'm sure a French movie will be part of the final lineup, so I went for France's Oscar submission, which is an AMAZING movie!
I really don't know how to explain these picks. I guess the Globes like "bigger" and more "epic" and "complex" scores than the AMPAS, but sometimes Globes go for better original scores. It's a pretty unpredictable category and if I've already struggled to predict the previous categories (because, let's face it, it's early in the awards season and we don't know which route and which movies organizations are embracing), Best Score is a question mark. I guess the HFPA will want to recognize 1917 elsewhere besides Best Director, so the Best Score field sounds like a rational option. Marco Beltrami was able to get a nom here last year for A Quiet Place and I'm expecting him to repeat with Ford v. Ferrari. Joker has a great original score and it is an extremely popular movie, so it would add one more nod to its nominations score. Jojo Rabbit has a moving score (and sometimes full of joy) and Ad Astra's score relies on epicness and it is amazing!
Comments